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Post Turkey Day Storm Threat


Baroclinic Zone

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it was good for you?

i was under the impression that the winter in new england was quite poor last season, or should i say it ended after the first week of january, as it did here.

perhaps southern connecticut and RI did well i suppose.

It sucked pretty bad after January, though some spots did see significant snow in late February...mostly elevated and in the western half of NE.

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it was good for you?

i was under the impression that the winter in new england was quite poor last season, or should i say it ended after the first week of january, as it did here.

perhaps southern connecticut and RI did well i suppose.

It did suck after the 1st of Jan, We fell 20" below normal on snowfall...... :thumbsdown:

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Me to........

I was actually thinking that the perfect pattern would be coastal lows that hit you guys on the coastal plain, then cut-off near CAR and hammer us with cyclonic upslope flow.

I'd give up the synoptic snow part for you guys to the east if we can get in on long duration upslope once everyone else is done snowing. That would be the perfect pattern and keep everyone happy.

:thumbsup:

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It sucked pretty bad after January, though some spots did see significant snow in late February...mostly elevated and in the western half of NE.

That storm made the winter up here... most of the interior VT got 20-36" with that late February event and the mountain summits picked up an honest 4 feet or so.

That was an amazingly rich QPF event that sort of snuck up on everyone.

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I was actually thinking that the perfect pattern would be coastal lows that hit you guys on the coastal plain, then cut-off near CAR and hammer us with cyclonic upslope flow.

I'd give up the synoptic snow part for you guys to the east if we can get in on long duration upslope once everyone else is done snowing. That would be the perfect pattern and keep everyone happy.

:thumbsup:

:lol:, Yeah, You guys do well after these storms get done with us here, NW flows........ftl here

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Nah we want it to cut off and stall somewhere between PVD and Mt. Tolland and pillage us with backlash snow for several days in a row here. :)

I was actually thinking that the perfect pattern would be coastal lows that hit you guys on the coastal plain, then cut-off near CAR and hammer us with cyclonic upslope flow.

I'd give up the synoptic snow part for you guys to the east if we can get in on long duration upslope once everyone else is done snowing. That would be the perfect pattern and keep everyone happy.

:thumbsup:

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it was good for you?

i was under the impression that the winter in new england was quite poor last season, or should i say it ended after the first week of january, as it did here.

perhaps southern connecticut and RI did well i suppose.

I finished right at average and got to witness a KU, quick ending but obviously it could have been mucho better but nothing wrong with average.

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Looks like the 0z GFS pretty much discounts any threat of frozen precip at the onset, although that's if the precip actually works into the region correctly as modeled.

Looks like some light snow/sleet at the onset at 96h. Its light though and likely not a big deal.

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Well definitely not the best of tracks for December 1st but at least it shows a storm and the pattern continues to look quite active. Hopefully nobody jumps off bridges just b/c it shows a cutter. At this stage I'd just rather see an active look to the pattern and the models trying to spit out storms.

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Yeah looks like most areas would start as sleet and maybe some flakes, esp MA pike north for the flakes...the low levels start very dry too which is more conductive to sleet.

Alright, this should definitely help increase the threat for some frozen at the onset then, I didn't take a look at RH values. 925mb temps would support some frozen as well as the real warmth here doesn't invade until around 102 HR.

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Weenie suicide on the 00z GFS?

Lakes cutter then a suppressed storm.

Ouch.

At least Kevin gets his cold departures... that's all that matters!!

Ensembles are still the same as 18z...I guess when we are sitting around waiting for something to happen, we keep looking at these OP runs beyond D6 out of boredom.

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Ensembles are still the same as 18z...I guess when we are sitting around waiting for something to happen, we keep looking at these OP runs beyond D6 out of boredom.

lol yup. I could see it going either way to be honest. We stay cold on the op run... almost every model seems to be showing that!

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