Typhoon Tip Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Ginx, hi - yeah, I understand where you are coming from but you are actually discussing something different than I. You referred to -NAO winters correlating to cold and snow, and to that, there is no argument. However, I was discussing the -NAO on any given system, whereas your content discusses a longer team mean. Yes -NAO winters have that correlation, but the storms still occur with greater frequency on the inflexion points of the "modalities" - not in situ with the mode. - more of an interpretation of content. Anyway, I was just playing frizzbie with my nephew in 37F in full sun with no snow on the ground, before Thanks Giving at 42N - not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Should be the classic se mass secondary, but I think it could be interesting especially for interior NH and ME. Heck maybe a few hours or more of sn/ip/zr in nrn orh county before a flip to rain? Interesting that this is getting colder again. Perhaps more importantly to interior folks is the antecedent air mass is colder yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Interesting that this is getting colder again. Perhaps more importantly to interior folks is the antecedent air mass is colder yet. My gut says the only area that benefits from this is with latitude...say ORH on north...especially north. Don't forget how topography will aid in cooling in these spots with potential ene ageostrophic wind flow. We'll see how future model runs trend. It's probably gonna tick a little more cooler in future runs, but I'm not sure if it will mean much to the sensible wx outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 My gut says the only area that benefits from this is with latitude...say ORH on north...especially north. Don't forget how topography will aid in cooling in these spots with potential ene ageostrophic wind flow. We'll see how future model runs trend. It's probably gonna tick a little more cooler in future runs, but I'm not sure if it will mean much to the sensible wx outcome. Hmmmmm... So, should I buy some gas for the thing in my shed (which shall be nameless...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Ginx, hi - yeah, I understand where you are coming from but you are actually discussing something different than I. You referred to -NAO winters correlating to cold and snow, and to that, there is no argument. However, I was discussing the -NAO on any given system, whereas your content discusses a longer team mean. Yes -NAO winters have that correlation, but the storms still occur with greater frequency on the inflexion points of the "modalities" - not in situ with the mode. - more of an interpretation of content. Anyway, I was just playing frizzbie with my nephew in 37F in full sun with no snow on the ground, before Thanks Giving at 42N - not bad. Ok , gotcha just reread it. Nice day has a crisp feel to it. Interesting HM just discussed the Archambault look to the Euro, would fit in with your discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Hmmmmm... So, should I buy some gas for the thing in my shed (which shall be nameless...) Mine is all tuned and ready to rock, hopefully right before the GTG it will get fired up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 About 40" here that month as well. My snowiest month on record with 64.2"...unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Hmmmmm... So, should I buy some gas for the thing in my shed (which shall be nameless...) LOL, not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 That was an aweseome month here..... In the Boston area too! 3 weeks and 1 day without school for most of metro Boston. Of course the second week of that run was Feb vacation but what a wild month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Nice CAD on the Euro, torch reduced to one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Thanks. I won't mention this blessed possibility to her just yet. Money saved, FTW. 34.8/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Mid winter feel; 36.1\21 after a HI of only 38.3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Well, managed to catch up on four pages of storm thread. Nice to hear the good news. It's too soon to really worry about this, and Pete will accuse me of being a DD here. But, for those in western areas I'd be concerned about us being screwed on the qpf side of things. Areas northeast of us will be a different story. Some of us might benefti from some orographic enhancement but I'd rather be in areas like Ashburnham and E/NE. Just my two cents. 34.8/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Well, managed to catch up on four pages of storm thread. Nice to hear the good news. It's too soon to really worry about this, and Pete will accuse me of being a DD here. But, for those in western areas I'd be concerned about us being screwed on the qpf side of things. Areas northeast of us will be a different story. Some of us might benefti from some orographic enhancement but I'd rather be in areas like Ashburnham Hubbardston and E/NE. Just my two cents. 34.8/15. If I see a few mangled flaked I am ok with it... Dec 1-10 will be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Mid winter feel; 36.1\21 after a HI of only 38.3. You're not kidding. It feels downright cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 To keep people's expectations in check--from this afternoon's AFD: A LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW FOR THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COLDER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 You're not kidding. It feels downright cold. Barely hit 30F today for my high... back down to 29F now at 800ft with a dusting still in shaded areas. High of 27F at work at the ski resort base at 1,500ft with an inch or so of snow on the ground. Very November feel... cold, sunny, and a skiff of snow on the ground. Round the clock snowmaking the past few days and nice to walk outside and hear the roar of the snow guns at the mountain. I'm with Kevin and Pete on this next system but for a different reason... heavy heavy upslope snow potential thanksgiving weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Barely hit 30F today for my high... back down to 29F now at 800ft with a dusting still in shaded areas. High of 27F at work at the ski resort base at 1,500ft with an inch or so of snow on the ground. Very November feel... cold, sunny, and a skiff of snow on the ground. Round the clock snowmaking the past few days and nice to walk outside and hear the roar of the snow guns at the mountain. I'm with Kevin and Pete on this next system but for a different reason... heavy heavy upslope snow potential thanksgiving weekend. Heavy heavy jealousy! Lattitude and Elevation FTW! Hopefully B'East will start blowing snow this weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Close to locking all frozen based oin the Euro You couldn't fool anybody trolling this morning yet you continue to try.. I love it.. Pass the Weenie of the YR Torch to CT Sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 A first of the season: Thursday NightA chance of rain and snow in the evening...then snow...rain and freezing rain likely after midnight. Light snow accumulation possible. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 That's really close to being a monster storm for all of us...verbatim its a huge snowstorm N of the MA/NH border....but given its 240 hours out on an OP Euro run, it will likely show partly cloudy skies on the 00z run. The block on that run though is responsible for forcing redevelopment on a storm that would otherwise cut all the way up through Michigan and into Ontario. This strange intense blocking scenario is going to be hellecious on the deterministic model solutions until they are very close in. Hell we still aren't exactly sure on the Friday event. It almost has a bit of an Archambaultian appeal to it... The NAO is rising and the PNA is cresting from a starting -2SD to about -.5SD, which although still negative, is clear gain of 1.5 SD - signaling a fairly robust mass field adjustment is going on. I think it is interesting that for 3 or perhaps 4 days worth of the runs the balance of the cycles from both deterministic GFS and ECM have been flagging the 1-3rd of DEC as a coastal player. The 18z GFS, heh, just saw it - argues for a clean 30" somewhere in NW Worcester County and a general 15-20 for everyone west of I-95 on a 3 day CCB assault Nor'easter. ...again, centered on Dec 1-whenever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 30 feet would impress even Pete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Ginx, funny - I just got your reply and had coincidentally just mentioned to Will that Dec 1 has an Archambault look to it - agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 30 feet would impress even Pete Nah, He would expect more if the coastal plain was getting that......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 30 feet would impress even Pete ....ah, yeah, lets go with 30" on the correction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Nice... looks like we've got multiple snow events lining up. Thursday night some accums with the warm front... maybe a little mix on Friday... then periods of upslope snow Friday night through Sunday... then big coastal Dec 1-3. Excellent time frame coming up as long as we can get through Wednesday: Thursday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 25. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 ....ah, yeah, lets go with 30" on the correction Pete tends to think his climate rivals Mt Rainier, so your 30' would be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Pete tends to think his climate rivals Mt Rainier, so your 30' would be correct. Wow, snow pack is close by now! We are definitely ahead of last year in the cryosphere. And wtf is with this Karate Kid music in that ad during the fb games - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Wow, snow pack is close by now! We are definitely ahead of last year in the cryosphere. http://www.natice.no...518581fefd7cc69 And wtf is with this Karate Kid music in that ad during the fb games - Wow, haven't looked at that in over a week, but dam what a change, Good to have you back posting. I feel like we're back to full power with everyone from eastern, now migrating and posting here. Just need MEkster, but I'm sure he'll stop by when something brews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Wow, snow pack is close by now! We are definitely ahead of last year in the cryosphere. http://www.natice.no...518581fefd7cc69 And wtf is with this Karate Kid music in that ad during the fb games - John it's great to have you back posting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.