millpondwx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 0z euro has no support long term from any other models does it not that i want to throw away the king of models even during day 7-10. yea, the euro is way more amplified with the 500 low moving across the conus next week. This results in the SE ridge getting pumped up (i.e. rain for the NE). Anyone have the link to the model comparisons graph which shows 500 verification scores? Wondering how the scores compare as this -NAO block is coming into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Rain. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 12/9/09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 12/9/09 9.7" for me that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 0z euro has no support long term from any other models does it not that i want to throw away the king of models even during day 7-10. The ec ensembles are colder after Thanksgiving weekend verbatim, but it looks like they are sniffing out some sort of low coming out of the Plains, because thicknesses rise over the East Coast. It's too early to determine details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Friday could feature periods of snow showers possibly. As the low departs still looks like we have some leftover moisture and with the fast flow aloft multiple pieces of s/w energy move through the flow. Could be a fun LES day out in NY as well depending on how things set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 The nice thing to see is the west based nao continuing to hang tight on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2010 Author Share Posted November 20, 2010 The nice thing to see is the west based nao continuing to hang tight on the ensembles. Last nights GFS was pretty close to a nice storm for us for Friday. Not sure what to make of it all given all the pieces of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 The ec ensembles are colder after Thanksgiving weekend verbatim, but it looks like they are sniffing out some sort of low coming out of the Plains, because thicknesses rise over the East Coast. It's too early to determine details. are you saying they are colder after t-giving vs. OP also thickness rise >5400 for SNE on most ensembles after tgiving weekend? or just from colder to cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 I think after Thanksgiving we will be cold for at least a good several days, despite the +EPO/-PNA look on the GFS the look of the -NAO is pretty solidly negative and the models have been pretty darn consistent about this occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 The ec ensembles are colder after Thanksgiving weekend verbatim, but it looks like they are sniffing out some sort of low coming out of the Plains, because thicknesses rise over the East Coast. It's too early to determine details. are you saying they are colder after t-giving vs. OP also thickness rise >5400 for SNE on most ensembles after tgiving weekend? or just from colder to cold Well the ensembles are a mean, so yes while they technically are colder then the op, it's hard to determine details of specific storms. Take this image at hr 336. While the ensemble mean is below 540, clearly some of the members are showing warmer solutions, so you see how difficult it is to say with certainty what will happen. The fact that we have a nice block and a generally cold looking pattern is fine for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 A little bit discouraging that the op Euro has provided a crappy solution for a few runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 If Kevin lived up in the Whites he'd have the 6z DGEX run locked in by now... http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/eta.snow_animate.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 A little bit discouraging that the op Euro has provided a crappy solution for a few runs now. Definitely living up to the name Dr No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Definitely living up to the name Dr No. Wow it's truly awful. Keeps the good cold punch west of here by Fri/Sat too. GFS is much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 At least the Euro has shown little run-to-run consistency with the Thanksgiving storm... it's gone from big lakes cutter to suppressed and weak and back and forth again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2010 Author Share Posted November 20, 2010 At least the Euro has shown little run-to-run consistency with the Thanksgiving storm... it's gone from big lakes cutter to suppressed and weak and back and forth again. I'm skeptical of the Euro for this very reason. The GFS has show more run to run consistency at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Would be crazy if the GFS turned out to be correct here After the update to the gFS earlier in the spring/summer the GFS really performed quite well for the summer, especially with the tropical side of things, if the GFS has the correct sense here could be something to really keep in mind as we go through the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 At least the Euro has shown little run-to-run consistency with the Thanksgiving storm... it's gone from big lakes cutter to suppressed and weak and back and forth again. Looking at the spaghetti plots at H5 on the ec ensembles, there are members that look like the op run, at d10. Most of them are further east with the trough, but it looked like at least several members kept it further west. As Kevin Garnett once said....anything is possible..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Looking at the spaghetti plots at H5 on the ec ensembles, there are members that look like the op run, at d10. Most of them are further east with the trough, but it looked like at least several members kept it further west. As Kevin Garnett once said....anything is possible..lol. Is there a big spread in how they look in regards to the NAO/PNA/EPO setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2010 Author Share Posted November 20, 2010 Incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Well the 12z GFS has trended toward the Euro. Much stronger at H5 over the northern plains and a 990 low over the UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Is there a big spread in how they look in regards to the NAO/PNA/EPO setup? The block is there in terms of the nao, but I think it's struggling out west. Some members seem like they want to shift the trough further west, but most are setting it up towards the East Coast. Having a strong -nao will help us out and it continues to be steadfast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Well the 12z GFS has trended toward the Euro. Much stronger at H5 over the northern plains and a 990 low over the UP. Yeah not that surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 The block is there in terms of the nao, but I think it's struggling out west. Some members seem like they want to shift the trough further west, but most are setting it up towards the East Coast. Having a strong -nao will help us out and it continues to be steadfast. Given the look of the NAO on the models I would bet the trough would probably setup closer to the east-coast, at least for a short period of time...while the PNA does go negative the signal isn't all that strong and it's going to take some time for the SE ridge to rebuild. As long as we can keep the -NAO that strong this signal should overcome any SE ridging that tries to develop, once we start to lose this -NAO look though I assume we will start seeing the ridge build right back in rather quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2010 Author Share Posted November 20, 2010 NAO looks to be doing it's dirty work, squeezing this thing S of us, locking C/NNE in the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Looks good for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2010 Author Share Posted November 20, 2010 Randy you still coming N? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Too much phasing of things off to our west...not good. Warm air is going to try to rebuild in from the south...looks like cold air could get locked in over NNE though so they might have a shot at something frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 The good news is at least the GFS still shows some pretty decent cold working into the Northeast, as far as how much of the cold that remains to be seen but that isn't really all that important. I bet we see our first sometime soon after Thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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