Tropopause_Fold Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Where's the mountain? "oh, i'm pete. i'm too good for the wa-wa." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Where's the mountain? That's it. It's a cross country ski area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 "oh, i'm pete. i'm too good for the wa-wa." LOL. I'm happy that people can ski regardless of how flat and featureless it may be. BTW, Alyeska has recieved 113" so far this season.. That's it. It's a cross country ski area. Oh, I get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Kevin and I are in mid-season shape. Going to be a looooong winter. Absolutely..in cold season I always go cold and snowy..and it usually works except for MLK storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Absolutely..in cold season I always go cold and snowy..and it usually works except for MLK storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 looks much better on the euro 8-10 day ave......euro ens came in cooler as well . some would say came in line with gfs...... torch minnesota for all i care but dont F with our pattern change as we thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The cold is coming on the models so even if T-day is wet not white for SNE it won't be long before we are seeing advisory snow events. I really don't get my hopes up for snow until Dec 1st. Start of met. winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I really don't get my hopes up for snow until Dec 1st. Start of met. winter. brother chris ......pete says those are not the words of a follower. it's close enough perhaps a list of simple commandments would help guide some. thou shall not go against the cold thou shall not be tempted by thoughts of changeovers thou shall not bear false witness and claim climatology when frozen is modeled thou shall not bounce checks to the rev thou shall not live within 25 miles of the CP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 brother chris ......pete says those are not the words of a follower. it's close enough Then I shall repent and pray for a snow covered turkey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 looks much better on the euro ens mean......euro came in line with gfs...... torch minnesota for all i care but dont F with our pattern change as we thought That's not the Euro ens mean...its the OP run averaged 8-10 days out. Ens mean though looks very active for early December with some chances. It cooled a bit too from the 12z ens mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 sorry gotcha ....good news stay cold enough mostly to make snow then give us a shot at some will did the gfs slow down it's progession of the tough with 0z ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 That's not the Euro ens mean...its the OP run averaged 8-10 days out. Ens mean though looks very active for early December with some chances. It cooled a bit too from the 12z ens mean That first week of Dec is shaping up to be fun times, imo. Multiple storm threats that have the potential to bury someone in the Northeast. Could make for some great early season skiing. I think maybe a spin-off thread to discuss those should be in order? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The individual members of the GFS have some mouth watering solutions, but also some that will break the hearts of weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 That first week of Dec is shaping up to be fun times, imo. Multiple storm threats that have the potential to bury someone in the Northeast. Could make for some great early season skiing. I think maybe a spin-off thread to discuss those should be in order? Yeah this is supposed to be mostly about the T-day "threat". I'll start a new pattern change thread for early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Should be interesting to see which model scores the coup on this next event as the block is really giving all of them a run for the money in the way they are handling it and the evntual outcome....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Euro is wintry mix for all of interior SNE..and has trended colder with the storm as we thought and told Bob the other day.. you ain't cutting a storm into that block Only cut to NE Minnesota on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Hello upslope snow! Regardless of what happens prior, it looks like the storm will rapidly deepen off to our northeast and if that thing stalls like the 00z GFS shows... its game on in the Green Mountains and northern slopes of the 'Dacks. When a larger grid model like the GFS (with smoothed terrain) shows QPF like this from cyclonic NW flow, it means game-time for the Greens. 00z GFS is eye candy... over 24 hours of moist NW flow into the mountains. We'd be talking foot plus at the ski resorts and 6-12" in surrounding towns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 There's plenty of reason to think the holiday storm is partially or all frozen in some areas of SNE. It ain't done trending colder as we thought I think in the climatologically coldest areas of SNE, the qpf will be an issue even if a colder solution were to evolve. 27.6/16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I think in the climatologically coldest areas of SNE, the qpf will be an issue even if a colder solution were to evolve. 27.6/16. You're trying to get the DD moniker for yourself aren't you? Never a shred of optimism. Stop it lest I take collateral damage from Ullr for your lack of piety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Box's forecast for the East slope now has delayed the onset of precip and has removed rain from the r/sThursday night forecast and replaced it simply with Snow. with a high in the 30's T-day and 25 Thanksgiving night. Beyond T-day it looks like temps will struggle to break the freezing mark. Those of little faith shall be struck down should they not repent. It has, though it still has rain for the Thursday afternoon time frame (at least for both our zones). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 It has, though it still has rain for the Thursday afternoon time frame (at least for both our zones). Please refer to my last post for further instructions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I think in the climatologically coldest areas of SNE, the qpf will be an issue even if a colder solution were to evolve. 27.6/16. still cold out there mike.....nice winter like day even noticed the cold when i took the dog out....being on a hill the wind was icy cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 still cold out there mike.....nice winter like day even noticed the cold when i took the dog out....being on a hill the wind was icy cold Warming (not) nicely under the full sun, though. Up to 28.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I think in the climatologically coldest areas of SNE, the qpf will be an issue even if a colder solution were to evolve. 27.6/16. You're guaranteed some ice/snow from it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Plus the fact that the coldest of the air doesn't move in until after the fact the system has departed isn't good either. The airmass that will be in place out ahead of the system isn't all that cold and while they weren't exactly cold when we had the light snow a few weeks ago we at least were aided by dynamics and evap. cooling, both of which will probably be non factors here. Given the flow probably out ahead of the low we will see a good deal of low-level warmth being advected into the region, while it may be cold enough at 850mb below that is where the warmth will exist. Strongly agree...people see 850s below 0C and just assume that it'll be snow. There's a ton of E/SE flow ahead of this system due to the positioning of the Bermuda high and initial low track, so you've got to deal with maritime air intrusions. This is late November, folks, not late January. The retrograding system on 11/8 had strong NW winds ahead of it that funneled in colder and especially drier air, which allowed people to wetbulb into the 33-34F range and pick up some snow. When you look for early-season snow events, you always look at 2m temps or 925mb temps first; in this case, the lower levels are cooking. A lot of people aren't seeing that since the thicknesses and 850s are fairly low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Strongly agree...people see 850s below 0C and just assume that it'll be snow. There's a ton of E/SE flow ahead of this system due to the positioning of the Bermuda high and initial low track, so you've got to deal with maritime air intrusions. This is late November, folks, not late January. The retrograding system on 11/8 had strong NW winds ahead of it that funneled in colder and especially drier air, which allowed people to wetbulb into the 33-34F range and pick up some snow. When you look for early-season snow events, you always look at 2m temps or 925mb temps first; in this case, the lower levels are cooking. A lot of people aren't seeing that since the thicknesses and 850s are fairly low. Way too many dismissals from mets and weenies alike for the Tday storm. Don't think for a second there's not room for it to end up squashed south of us and a colder solution. Likely maybe not..but possible with the mega block in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Way too many dismissals from mets and weenies alike for the Tday storm. Don't think for a second there's not room for it to end up squashed south of us and a colder solution. Likely maybe not..but possible with the mega block in place I haven't discounted a colder look, but I'm certainly not favoring it. Even if it doesn't trend any colder, there could be some sleet or brief snow to sleet at the beginning of it. But that doesn't excite me too much if its not going to be prolonged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I haven't discounted a colder look, but I'm certainly not favoring it. Even if it doesn't trend any colder, there could be some sleet or brief snow to sleet at the beginning of it. But that doesn't excite me too much if its not going to be prolonged. No I know..I didn't mean you. I don't think we see all frozen..but a few hours of snow/sleet/ice is very possible and in some places in Norhtern Mass/SW NH it might stay all frozen while I sit at 35 and rain after some ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Any frozen precip will have larger than normal implications due to the holiday, which is why I'm keeping close tabs on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 No I know..I didn't mean you. I don't think we see all frozen..but a few hours of snow/sleet/ice is very possible and in some places in Norhtern Mass/SW NH it might stay all frozen while I sit at 35 and rain after some ice Welcome aboard the ship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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