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Post Turkey Day Storm Threat


Baroclinic Zone

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I'm in a much better mood after finally getting the Euro op on board. Those last 3 runs had me a little concerned out colder type pattern was gonna vanish faster than a jar of Wiz's vaseline

At best we will have a shot of frozen precip at the onset of this thing but that's about it. The only areas that may end up cashing in here are in extreme Northern New England.

No reason to be concerned about the cold post-Thanksgiving, the signal has been there all along for it to happen and the signal is still there.

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At best we will have a shot of frozen precip at the onset of this thing but that's about it. The only areas that may end up cashing in here are in extreme Northern New England.

No reason to be concerned about the cold post-Thanksgiving, the signal has been there all along for it to happen and the signal is still there.

There's plenty of reason to think the holiday storm is partially or all frozen in some areas of SNE. It ain't done trending colder as we thought

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Euro is wintry mix for all of interior SNE..and has trended colder with the storm as we thought and told Bob the other day.. you ain't cutting a storm into that block

:lmao:

Thank you for the early morning laugh. Enjoy your 34F and rain on T-Day. You will not see any significant icing, sleet, or snow. 80-90% of the storm will be rain for you. Mangled flakes are not a win, nor is 1/2" of snow. Start looking for the first week of Dec.:weenie:

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There's plenty of reason to think the holiday storm is partially or all frozen in some areas of SNE. It ain't done trending colder as we thought

While it may have looked like the 0z GFS trended colder if you take a look at 925mb temps there is no way most of SNE would stay all frozen.

Maybe Scott can see what the Euro has for 925mb temps but I'd bet they are too warm for us to see prolonged frozen.

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While it may have looked like the 0z GFS trended colder if you take a look at 925mb temps there is no way most of SNE would stay all frozen.

Maybe Scott can see what the Euro has for 925mb temps but I'd bet they are too warm for us to see prolonged frozen.

The thing to look for here is has the euro gotten colder. the answer is yes it has..look for that to continue

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While it may have looked like the 0z GFS trended colder if you take a look at 925mb temps there is no way most of SNE would stay all frozen.

Maybe Scott can see what the Euro has for 925mb temps but I'd bet they are too warm for us to see prolonged frozen.

If you take the euro solution verbatim, the only place to see some frozen in sne would be nrn orh county, down through the east slopes of the berks. Southerly flow out ahead of the low will warm ct pretty quickly. It won't be 60, it would warm pretty quickly above freezing.

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If you take the euro solution verbatim, the only place to see some frozen in sne would be nrn orh county, down through the east slopes of the berks. Southerly flow out ahead of the low will warm ct pretty quickly. It won't be 60, it would warm pretty quickly above freezing.

Read it and weep, Kevin.

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I'm not saying SNE sees alot of snow..but I think there's room for this to continue to trend colder..don't think it's done yet. It won't surprise me in the least if this turns into an ice event for some spots in SNE

Box's forecast for the East slope now has delayed the onset of precip and has removed rain from the r/sThursday night forecast and replaced it simply with Snow. with a high in the 30's T-day and 25 Thanksgiving night. Beyond T-day it looks like temps will struggle to break the freezing mark. Those of little faith shall be struck down should they not repent.

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If you take the euro solution verbatim, the only place to see some frozen in sne would be nrn orh county, down through the east slopes of the berks. Southerly flow out ahead of the low will warm ct pretty quickly. It won't be 60, it would warm pretty quickly above freezing.

but small features like weak secondary's or a low along a triple point near block island....won't show up on the euro yet right? so the flow could actually be more backed in from the NNE over interior mass and (west of orh, and from about tolland west) correct? and int this set up are actually likely .

in fact that is what i get from reading one of the met's blogs here i believe. so the weenie bashers take your BP.

rev kev it's ez just believe

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:lmao:

Thank you for the early morning laugh. Enjoy your 34F and rain on T-Day. You will not see any significant icing, sleet, or snow. 80-90% of the storm will be rain for you. Mangled flakes are not a win, nor is 1/2" of snow. Start looking for the first week of Dec.:weenie:

Typical defeatist attitude of a Coastal Plainer. Repent while you still can.

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but small features like weak secondary's or a low along a triple point near block island....won't show up on the euro yet right? so the flow could actually be more backed in from the NNE over interior mass and (west of orh, and from about tolland west) correct?

in fact that is what i get from reading one of the met's blogs here i believe.

rev kev it's ez just believe

That's correct, but it looks like any weak secondary would probably cut near eastern ct up through eastern ma. I'm just taking this run verbatim. However, it's early in the season, and it's not a polar airmass that thhe low is running into, so I think you'd have to be significantly away from the center of low pressure to see frozen.

I will say that there is a small chance it could end up further south, but all that might do is allow for a few more hours of frozen, before a flip to rain. It would take a big adjustment to get most of interior sne, to have significant frozen imo. I'd move on.

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Good to see at least a bit of a chill in the euro

We will send pics of turkey day sleet pellets to those non believers

I'm sending a pic of you to mainejayhawk. You have been enjoying his photoshop creations of Kev and I just a little too much. Better hope you're not depicted as an Altar boy. The Rev has a 'special' training regiment for the more innocent in the flock.

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That's correct, but it looks like any weak secondary would probably cut near eastern ct up through eastern ma. I'm just taking this run verbatim. However, it's early in the season, and it's not a polar airmass that thhe low is running into, so I think you'd have to be significantly away from the center of low pressure to see frozen.

I will say that there is a small chance it could end up further south, but all that might do is allow for a few more hours of frozen, before a flip to rain. It would take a big adjustment to get most of interior sne, to have significant frozen imo. I'd move on.

Plus the fact that the coldest of the air doesn't move in until after the fact the system has departed isn't good either. The airmass that will be in place out ahead of the system isn't all that cold and while they weren't exactly cold when we had the light snow a few weeks ago we at least were aided by dynamics and evap. cooling, both of which will probably be non factors here.

Given the flow probably out ahead of the low we will see a good deal of low-level warmth being advected into the region, while it may be cold enough at 850mb below that is where the warmth will exist.

I think some of us here will see frozen to begin but that's about it, then we flip to rain.

The real excitement should exist in the first week of December.

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LOL, I know it'll be tough for you to watch the snow pile up out here but you can always take a road trip.

yes you and mike are positioned best for this one.

i've got friday off so i could join you for sermon on the 2k mount.

i'll tell story's of things regarding to civilization then we could round up your goats for some "fun"

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yes you and mike are positioned best for this one.

i've got friday off so i could join you for sermon on the 2k mount.

i'll tell story's of things regarding to civilization then we could round up your goats for some "fun"

The images percolating up from the depths of your imagination are becoming increasingly disturbing. Do you have a wife/GF? You should look into this as a way to alleviate such perverse proclivities.

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I'm sending a pic of you to mainejayhawk. You have been enjoying his photoshop creations of Kev and I just a little too much. Better hope you're not depicted as an Altar boy. The Rev has a 'special' training regiment for the more innocent in the flock.

You are a cruel and bitter Cardinal

Hey, I just rediscovered the joy of cleaning up frozen dog poop! These poopsicles are much easier to hurl into the woods.

26.4F

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The images percolating up from the depths of your imagination are becoming increasingly disturbing. Do you have a wife/GF? You should look into this as a way to alleviate such perverse proclivities.

rev kev has already offered a helping hand :hug:

it is good to see those snow guns going at wachusett . and yes MRG i know its not alyeska (Sp?) but it is 35 minutes from me and a great place i can go 2-3 times a week. so i'm pumped

post-500-0-26900500-1290344534.jpg

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You are a cruel and bitter Cardinal

Hey, I just rediscovered the joy of cleaning up frozen dog poop! These poopsicles are much easier to hurl into the woods.

26.4F

I just coughed up a little oat meal. Just disgusting, If you lodge any complaints about Kevin I will simply move him to a different parish.

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