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Post Turkey Day Storm Threat

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

There's a reason he went to Cornell...:lol:

Obviously very high intelligence is one thing, but I'm not sure mental capacity is the main determinant regarding that incredible memory of past events; its a unique, extreme love of and passion for snowfall events that quite frankly not many have.

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40/70 Benchmark

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Posted
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Haha, got you dander up. We shall see. Want to place a wager on this season?

Nah, I knew what you were doing.

Your area is better for winter wx; I'm ok with that.

ray i wasn't up here for that year... what was it about that year's set up that jackpotted you and bent pete over so to speak.

seems like only 1 out 15 or so years where wilimington would beat w. chesterfield

It had a very latitudinal gradient (not as extreme as 2008) and there were a couple of late bloomer events that targeted my area; most notably the double-header a few days before xmas....I ended up edging out Will.

Here is the map; looks like he may have beaten me, but I know Will said that I probably beat him:

post-100-0-35539500-1290318222.png

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H2Otown_WX

H2Otown_WX

Posted
Posted

Obviously very high intelligence is one thing, but I'm not sure mental capacity is the main determinant regarding that incredible memory of past events; its a unique, extreme love of and passion for snowfall events that quite frankly not many have.

Agreed. Obviously when you really have a passion for something, you have a better recollection if it. It's like if you were to read some piece of literature that you didn't care for or the KU books...which are you going to remember more about? :lol: But yeah, this trait is more apparent with Will. Who else would bring their KU book to a bar? :lol:

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Nah, I knew what you were going.

Your area is better for winter wx; I'm ok with that.

It had a very latitudinal gradient and there were a couple of late bloomer events that targeted my area; most notably the double-header a few days before xmas....I ended up edging out Will.

Here is the map; looks like he may have beaten me, but I know Will said that I probably beat him:

LOL, what loser dorks we are debating who got more snow on a Sat. night. There was a time when I was just getting into the party at this hour. Now I'm up because i fell asleep at 6pm.

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Posted
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LOL, what loser dorks we are debating who got more snow on a Sat. night. There was a time when I was just getting into the party at this hour. Now I'm up because i fell asleep at 6pm.

LOL I've been busy the past couple weeks w my bday and all, so I had planned to just take a night for myself and chill, though I did visit my sister for a bit this evening.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

LOL I've been busy the past couple weeks w my bday and all, so I had planned to just take a night for myself and chill, though I did visit my sister for a bit this evening.

You're 30 now right? Halfway to 60, nice. We we're at Foxwoods to see a show last night. Got no sleep basically. I tried hard to stay awake but crashed around 6. I can remember the days when I would have gone right back out tonight partying but, alas, those days are gone.

Of course, those days featured performance enhancing substances....... GN.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

00z euro looks a little better this run then at 12z as it tracks a weak secondary a little further east over the outer cape into NS, Still marginal though for temps @850 and the surface in the northern areas of ME, NH and Vt with some frozen this run possibly, 12z had a secondary tracking thru western mass and downeast maine...... :weight_lift:

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
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At least the look on the euro after Thanksgiving doesn't look all too bad, although it appears as if at hour 240 it wants to develop a possible Lakes cutter as it looks like it wants to pump up heights just out ahead of it.

Can't see the euro after 240 HR though.

Yeah it's going to be close with that s/w ejecting into the Plains. It has a nice confluent pseudo 50/50 and -NAO ahead of it, but the Pacific regime is trying to pump up a SE ridge. Epic battle about to ensue between a strong Niña and heavy blocking over Greenland and the Canadian Arctic. Very interesting pattern.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Yeah it's going to be close with that s/w ejecting into the Plains. It has a nice confluent pseudo 50/50 and -NAO ahead of it, but the Pacific regime is trying to pump up a SE ridge. Epic battle about to ensue between a strong Niña and heavy blocking over Greenland and the Canadian Arctic. Very interesting pattern.

I would think this setup could lead to some big time potential! It should be quite a fun pattern none the less but will it produce fun results?

Anyways though that could lead to some active times severe wise across parts of the Plains and Southeast region.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
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I would think this setup could lead to some big time potential! It should be quite a fun pattern none the less but will it produce fun results?

Anyways though that could lead to some active times severe wise across parts of the Plains and Southeast region.

I just wish some sort of block would form over the Pacific so that the shortwaves started out further south and Canada was infused with a bit of cold air. If you look at the 0z ECM Northern Hemisphere maps, you can see that most of the cold anomalies are shifting towards Europe and central Asia with a lot of milder air over North America due to the +EPO. Also, everything is being ejected really far north so it's sort of predisposed to more of a cutter/runner. I'm not crazy about starting with only -3C 850s when a SWFE event is coming in late November or the first days of December. This isn't mid January here.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

I just wish some sort of block would form over the Pacific so that the shortwaves started out further south and Canada was infused with a bit of cold air. If you look at the 0z ECM Northern Hemisphere maps, you can see that most of the cold anomalies are shifting towards Europe and central Asia with a lot of milder air over North America due to the +EPO. Also, everything is being ejected really far north so it's sort of predisposed to more of a cutter/runner. I'm not crazy about starting with only -3C 850s when a SWFE event is coming in late November or the first days of December. This isn't mid January here.

I see what you mean, if it was another month in than maybe things would be different but by the time we get a month in we may lose this great NAO blocking and once we lose that signal the Pacific is totally going to dominate, especially as the Nina continues to strengthen over the coming weeks with the recent trade surge.

So much over the next few weeks is just going to depend on how strong of a NAO block we see and where the block sets up and we can dissect every single long-range model run and the ensembles and all but in reality we really won't have a solid idea of how exactly the NAO will look until probably just about a week or so before hand...maybe less.

Once the Pacific begins to totally dominate though both you and I are completely screwed lol.

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