Post Turkey Day Storm Threat

[CT Rain]

And just for Kevin... the Monday-Wednesday torch this week seems like it will overperform

[nzucker]

The block looks like its holding more robust in later frames than previously, which isn't surprising, given the model tendency to rush pattern changes. Perhaps we are seeing signs it was rushing in more permanent cold too soon?

As you said, I like the block staying there, it should provide multiple chances. We knew the ridiculous arctic cold wasn't coming...but that we'd have a generally below avg regime that was active with storm threats. I don't think any of that changes...it certainly didn't/doesn't guarantee that you will get every storm to track to your south and east. There's always the danger of too far west...but the block should favor some redevelopers or maybe amplify a clipper type system.

I'm not saying it's going to be an all-out torch, but a solution like the 12z ECM would leave us with far above average temperatures after Thanksgiving despite a strong -NAO regime. If the Pacific wants to keep cutting storms west of us, we'll get some good cold fronts like this weekend but have periods of warm values before the FROPA which generally leads to above normal temps. Also, if the NAO block bleeds too far west, it can actually be a bad thing because it forces the 50/50 low to retrograde towards Hudson Bay and Central Canada, where a lobe of vorticity hanging from this feature can phase with a s/w in the Plains and produce another cutter as the ECM has shown a couple times It's amazing how we were -7F for the first week of December and are about to jump above normal after the Tuesday/Wednesday cutter. The Pacific dictates the pattern which the Atlantic modifies, not the other way around.

Sure, New England can benefit from a -NAO/-PNA regime, but this is probably more desirable later in the season when the cold air and snowpack have already been laid down so we have a natural tendency for storms to redevelop and become more of a SWFE rather than a pure cutter. When we're looking for snow at low elevations near Thanksgiving, we need a nice coastal (possible with the -NAO, but we need the Pacific s/w to start a bit further south) or a clipper (which rarely happens with a -PNA).

[Baroclinic Zone]

And just for Kevin... the Monday-Wednesday torch this week seems like it will overperform

[CoastalWx]

This is very impressive. -5SD AO during this ENSO regime.

[Damage In Tolland]

And just for Kevin... the Monday-Wednesday torch this week seems like it will overperform

Lol one day in the 50's is overperformer?

[CT Rain]

Lol one day in the 50's is overperformer?

monday and tuesday... with warm overnight lows.

[Damage In Tolland]

Monday looks cloudy with highs in the 40s

[Mr Torchey]

monday and tuesday... with warm overnight lows.

Right now nws has us at

mon 57

tues 63

wed 51

obviously down here in death valley, but nonetheless another impressive torch upcoming

[WeatherX]

Upper 70's Monday? Time to put the AC back on.....

[nzucker]

Upper 70's Monday? Time to put the AC back on.....

Look at that airmass over Montana! Just brutal in the Northern Plains and Rockies.

[nzucker]

This is very impressive. -5SD AO during this ENSO regime.

That's amazing, and the ECM shows very cold temperatures in much of Asia with a bubble of near -40C 850s over Siberia, as well as a cold outbreak over Europe with -8C over Southern France and as cold as -20C in Scandinavia. There's basically a pipeline of brutally cold air that runs from that PV back towards Western Russia and into Europe....lots of chilly east/northeast flow into the Old Continent due to the strong -NAO. It will be quite a winter in Europe if that Greenland block persists, perhaps even more historic than last year with the La Niña allowing for a deeper PV to develop over Siberia and funnel in even more bitter values.

[WeatherX]

Look at that airmass over Montana! Just brutal in the Northern Plains and Rockies.

Expected, correct? La Nina rules......I've been watching (fondly) the CALTRANS live webcams all day particularly the Truckee/Tahoe area......heavy HEAVY Nina snow for the Sierras!

[Typhoon Tip]

This is very impressive. -5SD AO during this ENSO regime.

If anything it underscores the disconnect between the ENSO and the AO and AAO regions, quite frankly

There are scientific reasons for that but in simple terms, > normal arriving solar UV = warm phase of the AO, < normal solar arriving UV = cool phases.

Right now we be in a very serious < normal UV phase. Hence the era of the - AMO has begun

[cpickett79]

That's amazing, and the ECM shows very cold temperatures in much of Asia with a bubble of near -40C 850s over Siberia, as well as a cold outbreak over Europe with -8C over Southern France and as cold as -20C in Scandinavia. There's basically a pipeline of brutally cold air that runs from that PV back towards Western Russia and into Europe....lots of chilly east/northeast flow into the Old Continent due to the strong -NAO. It will be quite a winter in Europe if that Greenland block persists, perhaps even more historic than last year with the La Niña allowing for a deeper PV to develop over Siberia and funnel in even more bitter values.

congrats to europe

bullish on weenie rope and veteran "hope and change"and wachusett umbrellas

OT Big bear lake (east of san bernadino), Cali gonna get buried late tonite and sunday 2 feet above 8000 on the slopes FTW

[CoastalWx]

If anything it underscores the disconnect between the ENSO and the AO and AAO regions, quite frankly

There are scientific reasons for that but in simple terms, > normal arriving solar UV = warm phase of the AO, < normal solar arriving UV = cool phases.

Right now we be in a very serious < normal UV phase. Hence the era of the - AMO has begun

It's also interesting that if you go back and look at mdt/stg Nina events of the 50s-70s (also negative nao decadal trend), many of those ninas averaged with a -nao. It seemed like the nao wanted to stay negative even during a mdt/stg nina, for many of those. Of course, I'm not saying that will happen this year, but it was interesting to see.

[WeatherX]

http://www.kirkwood.com/pages/themountain/webcam.asp

[nzucker]

Expected, correct? La Nina rules......I've been watching (fondly) the CALTRANS live webcams all day particularly the Truckee/Tahoe area......heavy HEAVY Nina snow for the Sierras!

Yeah it's pretty much climo for Montana and the Pacific NW to be cold in a La Niña; anytime the Aleutian ridge builds, it causes cold air to flood the West. That's a pretty common pattern for a stronger La Niña although the temperatures are particularly cold this time due to the -NAO occurring at the same moment.

The Sierras are getting pounded...over 5' expected in some of the higher areas. They actually have a lot of their better winters in El Niños, but this is a good pattern for them. Thicknesses are particularly low for California at this time of the year, so the snow is much more powdery than the heavy cement they are accustomed to in the Sierra Nevada.

[nzucker]

congrats to europe

The expected +EPO/-NAO pattern will be great for Europe this winter, since the Pacific state will cause the PV to develop over central Asia, which becomes a cold air source for Europe when the Greenland block is more established with a continental E/NE flow dominating. This eliminates the influence of mild Atlantic airmasses and causes Europe, with its high latitude, to turn into an absolute ice box. 08-09 and 09-10 were great winters for the Old Continent, and this year is looking good so far. It has not been since the early 80s that European winters have been this cold, and the idea of the "modern winter" (mild winters due to global warming and +NAO) is pretty much dead after the last two years and what is starting to happen early in this cold season.

[Typhoon Tip]

The expected +EPO/-NAO pattern will be great for Europe this winter, since the Pacific state will cause the PV to develop over central Asia, which becomes a cold air source for Europe when the Greenland block is more established with a continental E/NE flow dominating. This eliminates the influence of mild Atlantic airmasses and causes Europe, with its high latitude, to turn into an absolute ice box. 08-09 and 09-10 were great winters for the Old Continent, and this year is looking good so far. It has not been since the early 80s that European winters have been this cold, and the idea of the "modern winter" (mild winters due to global warming and +NAO) is pretty much dead after the last two years and what is starting to happen early in this cold season.

I read somewhere actually that some Euro or Russian (FOBO?) outfit that monitors sea salinity and the Gulf Stream said that the Gulf terminous was receding, but don't quote me -

[cpickett79]

So with europe being cold and the west being stormy and likely more cold

we may still get snow chances with a -NAO ourselves is it historically more difficult to sustain a snow pack in a nina

Anyone who has access to euro ensembles... in the longer range how does the GOA look... and is the nina heavily west based with the euro?

seems like we could be set up for a torch Nzucker.....not saying it is gonna happen. but i mean it could be discussed

[free_man]

Ppl just need to keep expectations in check. If this favorable period doesn't work out, we'll try again the next series of storms we see. We didn't get going until Dec 13th in '07 and not until Dec 19th in '08....I think a lot of people are forgetting how early it is despite us going into a generally favorable pattern.

I think most everyone has reasonable expectations.     However, after last winter,  frustration will set in more quickly than normal if we don't snow much in December.

[cpickett79]

I think most everyone has reasonable expectations. However, after last winter, frustration will set in more quickly than normal if we don't snow much in December.

my only fear is that this generally favorable pattern DOES not materialize......everyone knows the -NAO is good.....but a reemergence of a GOA low with a much more west based NAO block = torcho

[ski MRG]

TIP, WHAT SAY YOU?!!!

[CT Rain]

18z GFS is bone dry lol

[Ginx snewx]

It's also interesting that if you go back and look at mdt/stg Nina events of the 50s-70s (also negative nao decadal trend), many of those ninas averaged with a -nao. It seemed like the nao wanted to stay negative even during a mdt/stg nina, for many of those. Of course, I'm not saying that will happen this year, but it was interesting to see.

The reason I am growing more confidant very day. If anyone thinks ENSO trumps ao nao around here this year will be a prime example of why especially NE.s climate is influenced more by these two tele connectors than any other. This argument is old and stale but it is nice to see my thoughts expressed in real time weather.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Everyone needs to climb back from the bridge. I hope nobody was expecting a complete and all out arctic assault. That was never in the cards. I'd also treat the euro op with a grain of salt for now. Like I said, the d10 threat could still be a mild solution as even hinted by the ensembles, but we'll have some chances down the road. Just because the ensemble mean is below 540, doesn't mean every storm will be frozen. The details are to be determined, but the key players are still there for opportunities. That block is not going anywhere for now. Keep a realistic approach and you won't be let down. It's not even Thanksgiving yet. Climo says relax and put the knife down.

this x 1000.

i hadn't checked anything all day until just now...after seeing everything i knew this place would be on suicide watch.

[snowNH]

Is it me or is the GFS very windy and cold next weekend? wind chills in the teens maybe?

[Ginx snewx]

my only fear is that this generally favorable pattern DOES not materialize......everyone knows the -NAO is good.....but a reemergence of a GOA low with a much more west based NAO block = torcho

Out for air?

[snowNH]

GFS still holding serve for a storm around dec. 1-3 time period!

[CT Rain]

Is it me or is the GFS very windy and cold next weekend? wind chills in the teens maybe?

Cold and very windy.