Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Time for a threat thread since it seems like we might see some sort of system effect the area and could mess with peoples travel plans. Model runs as of 11/19 12z GFS has a sheared out suppressed system 12z CMC has a strong primary low up through the GL and pops a secondary too late for most 12z Euro looks similar to the CMC 18z GFS similar to the 12z solution with a sheared out system, maybe a tad better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2010 Author Share Posted November 20, 2010 Wed? Pick a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Wed? Yeah it may be a Wednesday event. Timing is still pretty uncertain. Best chance for frozen out of this would likely be on the front end with some snow/ice possibility in the interior. I still think it will be mostly rain but with such uncertainty regarding the huge NAO block to the northeast and the amplitude of the central/western trough, we can't rule anything out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Rain. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Rain. Next. The Downer lives... I think some of us see a little frozen, but hey, it's the only frozen we got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 The system gets a little wrapped up as the low gets into the Gulf of Maine on the 00z GFS. It has a bit of hope up here and in ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 The system gets a little wrapped up as the low gets into the Gulf of Maine on the 00z GFS. It has a bit of hope up here and in ME. Tamarack, Dryslot jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Tamarack, Dryslot jackpot? Hopefully Cool Spruce FTW. He needs some snow after what he went through with his health. I'll be happy with 0.5-1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Hopefully Cool Spruce FTW. He needs some snow after what he went through with his health. I'll be happy with 0.5-1". Did he sign up here and how is he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 It looks to be getting colder for the 26th secondary solution the 00z GFS shows exploding too late for most of SNE. The pattern is getting better for the secondary to explode closer to the coast and obliterates any chances for a storm for the 28-30th time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Time for a threat thread since it seems like we might see some sort of system effect the area and could mess with peoples travel plans. Model runs as of 11/19 12z GFS has a sheared out suppressed system 12z CMC has a strong primary low up through the GL and pops a secondary too late for most 12z Euro looks similar to the CMC 18z GFS similar to the 12z solution with a sheared out system, maybe a tad better. I'm riding on the GFS train fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 00z Euro actually start off the T-day event as snow for a while on Thanksgiving morning. Eventually going to rain after a transition of some ice in the interior. But given the model swings on each run, its hard to take much seriously yet. The system is still nearly 6 days out. Long range OP Euro is back to looking awful, however the ensembles continue to show a great pattern post T-day. Back to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 00z Euro actually start off the T-day event as snow for a while on Thanksgiving morning. Eventually going to rain after a transition of some ice in the interior. But given the model swings on each run, its hard to take much seriously yet. The system is still nearly 6 days out. Long range OP Euro is back to looking awful, however the ensembles continue to show a great pattern post T-day. Back to bed. The Op Euro I have to admit is starting to concern me with back to back torch runs and no cold shots..but as long as the steadfast ensembles still look good..I feel pretty confident Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Rain. Next. Wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 <br />Wrong<br /><br /><br /><br />not looking too wintry for next weeks system. interior has some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 <br /><br /><br />not looking too wintry for next weeks system. interior has some hope. Euro is wintry..and I am the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2010 Author Share Posted November 20, 2010 Euro is wintry..and I am the interior Probably won't amount to much but there is something there to at least watch and discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Op models all over the place with low placement and track, Still looks like a couple more days before hopefully they lock on to some consensus and hopefully its at least some snow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Tamarack, Dryslot jackpot? would be nice but i will remain optimistic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 0z ecwmf out to lunch? from 347am preliminary long term discussion HPC THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARED MUCH STRONGER THAN ANY OF ITS PREVIOUS THREE RUNS WHICH WAS ALSO SEVERAL MB DEEPER THAN THE GLOBAL MEANS. SO ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THIS OPERATIONAL ECMWF WAS UTILIZED EARLY ON. BY WED...THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE ON THE SLOW AND STRONG END OF THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE HOLDING MUCH OF THE SHRTWV ENERGY BACK ACROSS THE INTERMTN WEST. THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF ENS MEAN ALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF TIME-LAGGED AVG PLOTS. THESE DEPICT THE TROF CROSSING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY WED. AS THE 00Z GFS APPEARED TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU DAY 5...THU...WITH THE GLOBAL ENS MEANS...A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE MODEL BLEND WILL COMPRISE THIS PARTICULAR OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE ON ITS OWN BEING SLOW AND OVERDEVELOPED WITH THE CLOSED LOW POSITIONED ACRS THE MID MISS VALLEY THU MORNING. IT ALSO SEEMS TO BE PLAGUED BY ISSUES RESOLVING THE H5 FIELD ACRS THE WEST. IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SET OF HGT FALLS OUT OF THE NE PAC...NO SIGN OF A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS IS VISIBLE IN THE 00Z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 would be nice but i will remain optimistic... If the GFS OP solution for TH/FRI pans out I'll be pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 If the GFS OP solution for TH/FRI pans out I'll be pleased. it seems you guys are positined nicely for this one almost either way. unless the LP turns into a deeper GLC w/ no secondary....but i think that's def. the minority case. just looking at the gfs ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 If the GFS OP solution for TH/FRI pans out I'll be pleased. It would be one of the few times, This will shake out i would think by Monday depending on the timing, There is quite a spread as far as which day is actually the storm at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 it seems you guys are positined nicely for this one almost either way. unless the LP turns into a deeper GLC w/ no secondary....but i think that's def. the minority case. just looking at the gfs ensembles. I think your right at least for some frozen initially anyways........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 What a bridge jumper of a run on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 What a bridge jumper of a run on the euro. Was no frozen to be found on that run unless you were in quebec.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 What is happening Monday? BOX has me 40% snow/sleet in the morning. QPF very low to nonexistant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2010 Author Share Posted November 20, 2010 What is happening Monday? BOX has me 40% snow/sleet in the morning. QPF very low to nonexistant? Guessing frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 What a bridge jumper of a run on the euro. 0z euro has no support long term from any other models does it not that i want to throw away the king of models even during day 7-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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