msp Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 i'm liking the two cells down near the tail of the line. the one se of neosho has shown signs of a weak hook on a few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Guess SPC wants to err on the side of caution for possible spin ups with the new tor watch for IN and MI. I would expect straight line winds to be more of a risk in this night time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Guess SPC wants to err on the side of caution for possible spin ups with the new tor watch for IN and MI. I would expect straight line winds to be more of a risk in this night time frame. Agree. I think the tor threat is decreasing overall although I suppose it's non-negligible. Low level speed shear is pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 SPC's discussion does mention concern about the approaching shortwave impulse so that may be the primary reason they decided to go with the tor watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 It will be interesting to see what the survey says tomorrow. To take high tension wires down it takes a pretty good wind, but if the towers came down with them we're approaching EF3. We were able to watch a nice RFD punch from the office window today, it occluded a ragged wall cloud but never got any tighter than that. An off duty employee got some shots of it, so hopefully I can snag those and upload them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Agree. I think the tor threat is decreasing overall although I suppose it's non-negligible. Low level speed shear is pretty impressive. Instability will be the issue up this way, as for what has already happened, even thought its only been a few tornadoes the few that have formed sound fairly significant and the pictures would agree. It only takes one tornado to have something remembered, thankfully so far it sounds like there has not been any loss of life today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 It will be interesting to see what the survey says tomorrow. To take high tension wires down it takes a pretty good wind, but if the towers came down with them we're approaching EF3. We were able to watch a nice RFD punch from the office window today, it occluded a ragged wall cloud but never got any tighter than that. An off duty employee got some shots of it, so hopefully I can snag those and upload them. More of the damage will be seen tomorrow morning, but based on what i am thinking we might have 1 or 2 EF3-or possibly EF4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 More of the damage will be seen tomorrow morning, but based on what i am thinking we might have 1 or 2 EF3-or possibly EF4 Where's cubbydoo to tell us there won't be anymore EF-4s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Instability will be the issue up this way, as for what has already happened, even thought its only been a few tornadoes the few that have formed sound fairly significant and the pictures would agree. It only takes one tornado to have something remembered, thankfully so far it sounds like there has not been any loss of life today. so far: Still can't get over how 1/7/08 was dropped as an analog event and then we get another (very likely strong) tornado today in a similar spot. Will be interesting to compare the tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 so far: Still can't get over how 1/7/08 was dropped as an analog event and then we get another (very likely strong) tornado today in a similar spot. Will be interesting to compare the tracks. Yeah I think that's an interesting coincidence the more interesting thing is the similar patterns too, maybe we'll have to remember this and field trip to N IL/S WI when we see it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 so far: Still can't get over how 1/7/08 was dropped as an analog event and then we get another (very likely strong) tornado today in a similar spot. Will be interesting to compare the tracks. The video reminded me of Stoughton with the motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 More of the damage will be seen tomorrow morning, but based on what i am thinking we might have 1 or 2 EF3-or possibly EF4 Based on the very preliminary damage reports I've heard, sounds like a likely significant tornado, possibly low end EF3. To me there just wasn't enough ingredients for EF4 today. The 0-1km shear was 35 kts, just above what is necessary for EF2+. It is surprisingly easy to completely destroy garages, corn cribs and the like with winds below EF2 strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 It is eerie. 1/7/08 was also La Nina. Of course OKC has been hit multiple times, but ne IL and se WI in a possible very similar track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Someone posted a vid of one of the tornadoes. Pretty impressive video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Based on the very preliminary damage reports I've heard, sounds like a likely significant tornado, possibly low end EF3. To me there just wasn't enough ingredients for EF4 today. The 0-1km shear was 35 kts, just above what is necessary for EF2+. It is surprisingly easy to completely destroy garages, corn cribs and the like with winds below EF2 strength. Yep. The damage that sounds more interesting is with those lines/possible towers down as well as that business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 The tornado we shot was just north of the intersection of Hunter and Ryan roads northwest of Chemung. It lifted shortly thereafter at least for a bit, perhaps dropping again in Lawrence per NWS preliminary storm reports. We got some "damage" pictures to trees and one steel highway sign post as the sun set and talked to a homeowner, who mentioned the January 2008 storm going through his yard on a very similar track. This line today was maybe 50 yards further south at least at that point, but also on the southwest to northeast trajectory. Eerily similar in the track. I'm guessing the width was maybe twenty yards where we were. Strength of EF0. Still having an issue uploading pics. Maybe it's my firefox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The tornado we shot was just north of the intersection of Hunter and Ryan roads northwest of Chemung. It lifted shortly thereafter at least for a bit, perhaps dropping again in Lawrence per NWS preliminary storm reports. We got some "damage" pictures to trees and one steel highway sign post as the sun set and talked to a homeowner, who mentioned the January 2008 storm going through his yard on a very similar track. This line today was maybe 50 yards further south at least at that point, but also on the southwest to northeast trajectory. Eerily similar in the track. I'm guessing the width was maybe twenty yards where we were. Strength of EF0. Still having an issue uploading pics. Maybe it's my firefox. What about uploading to photobucket or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The tornado we shot was just north of the intersection of Hunter and Ryan roads northwest of Chemung. It lifted shortly thereafter at least for a bit, perhaps dropping again in Lawrence per NWS preliminary storm reports. We got some "damage" pictures to trees and one steel highway sign post as the sun set and talked to a homeowner, who mentioned the January 2008 storm going through his yard on a very similar track. This line today was maybe 50 yards further south at least at that point, but also on the southwest to northeast trajectory. Eerily similar in the track. I'm guessing the width was maybe twenty yards where we were. Strength of EF0. Still having an issue uploading pics. Maybe it's my firefox. Heck if its 50 yards away I'd consider that dead on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Yep. The damage that sounds more interesting is with those lines/possible towers down as well as that business. I agree, those should paint a pretty accurate picture of wind speeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I agree, those should paint a pretty accurate picture of wind speeds. If those towers were ripped out of the ground and tossed, that would be an strong EF3 or low end EF4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 If those towers were ripped out of the ground and tossed, that would be an strong EF3 or low end EF4 I doubt they were ripped out of the ground, but a transmission tower toppled over is right around 136 mph expected, making it a low end EF3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I doubt they were ripped out of the ground, but a transmission tower toppled over is right around 136 mph expected, making it a low end EF3. ok then it was still a very unexpected day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I still have to keep reminding myself that it doesn't take as much moisture / instability in the cold season to have svr wx as long as the dynamics are there than it does in the spring and summer. I broadbrush things by thinking that dews in the 50's are ok for t storms but I need dews in the 60's for tornadoes, which may work in spring and summer but not necessarily in this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I still have to keep reminding myself that it doesn't take as much moisture / instability in the cold season to have svr wx as long as the dynamics are there than it does in the spring and summer. I broadbrush things by thinking that dews in the 50's are ok for t storms but I need dews in the 60's for tornadoes, which may work in spring and summer but not necessarily in this season. Instability is always about the change in temperature and moisture with height, no matter the time of year. It's never based solely on surface conditions, and there are never magical surface thresholds. There are common ones for severe thunderstorm and tornado situations, because of the time of year most severe weather events happen... but there are never magic thresholds. If the mid-level temperatures are cold enough and the temperatures decrease rapidly enough with height, you can theoretically have 2000 j/kg of SBCAPE with temperatures in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I still have to keep reminding myself that it doesn't take as much moisture / instability in the cold season to have svr wx as long as the dynamics are there than it does in the spring and summer. I broadbrush things by thinking that dews in the 50's are ok for t storms but I need dews in the 60's for tornadoes, which may work in spring and summer but not necessarily in this season. Not to drag the thread too OT but here is a case from 11/12/65 which produced several strong tornadoes in northern IL/northwest IN. Here are a couple maps courtesy of Bangladesh Tornadoes: Surface map: Fairly deep low (deeper than today at least) but the temps/dewpoints don't really jump out at you. Instability probably wasn't that high. The result? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The tornado we shot was just north of the intersection of Hunter and Ryan roads northwest of Chemung. It lifted shortly thereafter at least for a bit, perhaps dropping again in Lawrence per NWS preliminary storm reports. We got some "damage" pictures to trees and one steel highway sign post as the sun set and talked to a homeowner, who mentioned the January 2008 storm going through his yard on a very similar track. This line today was maybe 50 yards further south at least at that point, but also on the southwest to northeast trajectory. Eerily similar in the track. I'm guessing the width was maybe twenty yards where we were. Strength of EF0. Still having an issue uploading pics. Maybe it's my firefox. Here we go. Radar capture showing approximate observed path (thin black line) and our position during the tornado. The wall cloud and tornado itself was well contrasted. After moving for about twenty seconds at the width in the pictures below, it did lift. Rotation with the wall cloud itself continued, although video of that did not turn out too visible, outside of rapidly moving rain curtains. 'Damage path' as detailed in the picture. Steel highway sign post. A closer view of the soft wood tree damage, on both edges of the field. The house I referenced from 2008 is just off the frame to the north (left) of those pines. It is late in the year and with many of the fields harvested and tilled and bare trees, there wasn't much vegetation to be pulled airborne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2066 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0709 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN AND CNTRL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 230109Z - 230215Z THE THREAT FOR A SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE DEEPENING CONVECTION WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM N OF HOT TO BVX. 00Z LIT SOUNDING INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A CAPPING INVERSION AT AROUND 720 MB. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND MOISTENING ALONG SRN EXTENSION OF SWLY 40-50 KT LLJ MAY SUPPORT EVENTUAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST MESOSCALE AND CONVECTION-RESOLVING MODEL GUIDANCE AND GIVEN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT /REF. 00Z LIT SOUNDING AND CURRENT VWP DATA/...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ELSEWHERE...TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR COLD FRONT-DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT E OF MKO MAY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING EWD INTO NWRN AR WHERE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST AND STRONGLY SHEARED IN THE LOW-LEVELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I also gotta give props to TornadoTony. He nailed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 748 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 800 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS FAR EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 800 PM UNTIL 300 AM CST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 749 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 825 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWEST INDIANA WESTERN KENTUCKY SOUTHEAST MISSOURI NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI WESTERN TENNESSEE EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 825 PM UNTIL 400 AM CST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. DISCUSSION...SHOWERS/TSTMS FORMING ALONG SW-NE PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE...AND STORMS ALONG FRONTAL BAND FARTHER NW...EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND POSSIBLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY TUE AS REGION IS GLANCED BY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW CROSSING KS. STRONG WIND FIELD WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...AND CONTINUED LOW-LL MOISTURE INFLOW NNEWD THROUGH THE MS VLY...SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. THESE COULD YIELD MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND /MAINLY WITH PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY/...A COUPLE TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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