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Thanksgiving Week Severe Weather


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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2065

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0349 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...LAKE MI...WRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222149Z - 222315Z

A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE MI AND WRN LOWER MI LATE

THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE

CELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. A WW IS CURRENTLY BEING CONSIDERED FOR

PARTS OF THE MCD AREA.

A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM A SFC LOW

IN SERN WI SSWWD ALONG A SFC TROUGH INTO ERN IL...MOVING NORTHEAST

AT 45 TO 50 KTS. USING A TIME-DISTANCE ESTIMATE...THE LINE SHOULD BE

OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BETWEEN 22Z AND 2330Z IMPACTING WRN LOWER MI

AFTER 2330Z WITH A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AT THIS

POINT...MLCAPE VALUES IN WRN LOWER MI ARE ONLY ESTIMATED IN THE 250

TO 500 J/KG RANGE. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO DECREASING

INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BECOME ISOLATED BUT STILL MAY

POSE ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2065

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0349 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...LAKE MI...WRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222149Z - 222315Z

A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE MI AND WRN LOWER MI LATE

THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE

CELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. A WW IS CURRENTLY BEING CONSIDERED FOR

PARTS OF THE MCD AREA.

A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM A SFC LOW

IN SERN WI SSWWD ALONG A SFC TROUGH INTO ERN IL...MOVING NORTHEAST

AT 45 TO 50 KTS. USING A TIME-DISTANCE ESTIMATE...THE LINE SHOULD BE

OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BETWEEN 22Z AND 2330Z IMPACTING WRN LOWER MI

AFTER 2330Z WITH A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AT THIS

POINT...MLCAPE VALUES IN WRN LOWER MI ARE ONLY ESTIMATED IN THE 250

TO 500 J/KG RANGE. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO DECREASING

INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BECOME ISOLATED BUT STILL MAY

POSE ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

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Stebo and I were curious as last night the models had 53F at DTW at midnight and we were at 61....and figured same was true in the ORD area....arrrgghh....wish I wasn't at metro right now....not sure if it's from today but went to WGN to see if they were streaming....and they aren't....but had a nice pic on their page.

Seems like the raw model temps were underdone a little (in some cases more than a little)...as I posted earlier, there were 70 degree readings into the southern suburbs of Chicago and mid-upper 60's along/north of I-80. The special 18z DVN sounding revealed MLCAPE over 500...

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Could this hit another Caledonia?

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

407 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010

WIC059-101-222230-

/O.CON.KMKX.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-101122T2230Z/

RACINE WI-KENOSHA WI-

407 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN KENOSHA AND

RACINE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CST...

AT 406 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A

CONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR UNION GROVE...

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

WIND POINT...RACINE BATTEN AIRPORT AND DOWNTOWN RACINE AROUND 420

PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADO INCLUDE CALEDONIA...ELMWOOD

PARK AND NORTH BAY.

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Seems like the raw model temps were underdone a little (in some cases more than a little)...as I posted earlier, there were 70 degree readings into the southern suburbs of Chicago and mid-upper 60's along/north of I-80. The special 18z DVN sounding revealed MLCAPE over 500...

Yeah I had seen your post just didn't check for that area....had to get my logistics done in case I get busy tonight....I'm not expecting severe here but we get busy with garden variety storms....would be nice if that warmth advected up here later and the storms held together.

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Seems like the raw model temps were underdone a little (in some cases more than a little)...as I posted earlier, there were 70 degree readings into the southern suburbs of Chicago and mid-upper 60's along/north of I-80. The special 18z DVN sounding revealed MLCAPE over 500...

Props to you, TT, and Stebo, my 2% tor would have held all day lol.

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Props to you, TT, and Stebo, my 2% tor would have held all day lol.

Don't forget Fred. I was probably a little less bullish than them but thought there was some potential particularly in the first few hours.

We'll see what actually transpired but it sounds like there may have been at least a couple significant tornadoes.

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000

NWUS53 KLOT 222232

LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

432 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0300 PM TORNADO 3 E LOVES PARK 42.34N 88.95W

11/22/2010 WINNEBAGO IL BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 3 INJ *** DAMAGE IN CALEDONIA AREA NEAR ARGYLE ROAD

AND HARLEM ROAD AND PAULSON ROADS...ONE BUSINESS

COMPLETELY ALMOST COMPLETELY DESTROYED...OTHER HOMES AND

GARAGES PARTIALLY DOWN. GRAIN SILO DESTROYED AND LEAKING

GRAIN ONTO STREET. LARGE BARN COMPLETELY DOWN. HIGH

TENSION POWERLINES DOWN. BUS ROLLED OVER AT PAULSON AND

HARLEM ROAD. 3 CHILDREN INJURED...SENT TO HOSPITAL. ALL

INFORMATION REGARDING TIME AND LOCATIONS IS PRELIMINARY

UNTIL DAMAGE SURVEY CONDUCTED.

&&

$$

RC

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

454 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL WEBSTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

EAST CENTRAL GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 545 PM CST.

* AT 452 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO NEAR TURNERS...OR 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STRAFFORD...MOVING

EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE DIGGINS...FORDLAND...NORTHEASTERN

SPRINGFIELD...NORTHVIEW...STRAFFORD AND TURNERS.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 80 AND 97 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY

THIS TORNADO.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE

DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

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