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Thanksgiving Week Severe Weather


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

225 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

224 PM CST

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW IL THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AS THEY MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTHERN IL. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KT. 0-1 KM HELICITY EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2 ALSO WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS...AND THESE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AS PER THE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...THE WATCH BOX WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXPAND EWD INTO THE CHICAGO AREA.

LENNING

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

225 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

224 PM CST

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW IL THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AS THEY MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTHERN IL. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KT. 0-1 KM HELICITY EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2 ALSO WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS...AND THESE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AS PER THE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...THE WATCH BOX WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXPAND EWD INTO THE CHICAGO AREA.

LENNING

I hadn't been paying much attention to weather lately, so this has snuck up on me. Looks like storms will be rolling in as i roll out of the office. Might be forced to sneak into a bar for an hour or so.

EDIT: hardly scientific, but it doesn't look very severe stormy out, with heavy overcast and fog. Not sure where this cape came from.

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I hadn't been paying much attention to weather lately, so this has snuck up on me. Looks like storms will be rolling in as i roll out of the office. Might be forced to sneak into a bar for an hour or so.

EDIT: hardly scientific, but it doesn't look very severe stormy out, with heavy overcast and fog. Not sure where this cape came from.

From your immediate west, where's it's been sunny and 65+ most of the day.

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I hadn't been paying much attention to weather lately, so this has snuck up on me. Looks like storms will be rolling in as i roll out of the office. Might be forced to sneak into a bar for an hour or so.

EDIT: hardly scientific, but it doesn't look very severe stormy out, with heavy overcast and fog. Not sure where this cape came from.

They weren't terrible in the first place, but I think the mid level lapse rates might be a little steeper than progged. Also it's warmer than what the models were indicating with 70 degree temps now inching up toward the far south suburbs. This has become a halfway decent severe setup considering it's getting a bit late in the season for this particular target area. Radar looks pretty good as far as discrete activity right now although I'm not sure how long it will be before we see things become more messy.

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As the storms depart our CWA I am thinking we were limited by the poor inflow winds. Good speed shear, but little directional. The veered SSW winds were parallel to the forcing and just couldn't really tighten up the low levels for us. It would have taken some locally backed winds to spin something up, and probably did in far sern Henry County, IL. My guess would be along the outflow from the previous HP storm that went through the area.

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Odd coincidence...there a TOR east of Rockford for the area that got hit by the EF3 on 1/7/08

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

303 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN BOONE COUNTY...

NORTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTY...

EAST CENTRAL WINNEBAGO COUNTY...

* UNTIL 330 PM CST

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Odd coincidence...there a TOR east of Rockford for the area that got hit by the EF3 on 1/7/08

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

303 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN BOONE COUNTY...

NORTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTY...

EAST CENTRAL WINNEBAGO COUNTY...

* UNTIL 330 PM CST

Nice couplet up there, and that is the right location for tornadoes now, closer to the triple point.

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Debris in the air reported near Rock Cut State Park.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

309 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010

ILC007-111-201-222130-

/O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-101122T2130Z/

WINNEBAGO IL-MCHENRY IL-BOONE IL-

309 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN BOONE...

NORTHWESTERN MCHENRY AND EAST CENTRAL WINNEBAGO COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM

CST...

AT 304 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A

CONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED AT THE INTERSECTION OF

ARGYLE AND HARLEM JUST WEST OF CALEDONIA...AND JUST EAST OF ROCK CUT

STATE PARK. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

HARVARD...POPLAR GROVE AND CAPRON.

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Getting near the magic hour for tornado occurrence, although I usually have a rule that given other favorable parameters dews should be above 60 for tors with good low level inflow, although there are probably exceptions to this I'm sure. And the latest ground truth just proves the exception! That's why weather is always interesting.

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LOT: 4 E Loves Park [boone Co, IL] broadcast media reports TORNADO at 03:00 PM CST -- estimated 1/2 mile wide tornado spotted on ground at the intersection of argyle rd and harlem rd east of rock cut state park near caledonia. power lines down and debris in the air reported in the area.

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...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN WALWORTH COUNTY

UNTIL 345 PM CST...

AT 314 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A

CONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CAPRON...OR 9 MILES

WEST OF HARVARD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

WALWORTH AROUND 330 PM CST.

FONTANA-ON-GENEVA LAKE AND WILLIAMS BAY AROUND 335 PM CST.

COMO AROUND 340 PM CST.

PELL LAKE...LAKE GENEVA AND GENOA CITY AROUND 345 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADO INCLUDE FONTANA.

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LOT: 4 E Loves Park [boone Co, IL] broadcast media reports TORNADO at 03:00 PM CST -- estimated 1/2 mile wide tornado spotted on ground at the intersection of argyle rd and harlem rd east of rock cut state park near caledonia. power lines down and debris in the air reported in the area.

uncanny

still looking good on the latest scan

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