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Thanksgiving Week Severe Weather


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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2059

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1050 AM CST MON NOV 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...MO...WRN IL...ERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221650Z - 221815Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL/NE MO...ERN IA AND

WRN IL AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW

HOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE

POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON

ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SW AND CNTRL/NE MO IN

AN AREA OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF

MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. MLCAPE VALUES ARE NOW ESTIMATED IN THE 500 TO

750 J/KG RANGE FROM NEAR JOPLIN MO NNEWD TO AROUND DAVENPORT IA.

MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS THIS AFTERNOON

FOCUSING A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS CNTRL/NE MO...ERN IA AND WRN IL. THE

LATEST WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW FAVORABLE SHEAR

PROFILES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES

CALCULATED AT 50 TO 60 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED

WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 50 TO 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET AND

STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS.

STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO

THREAT WITH ROTATING STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. AS STORMS INCREASE

IN COVERAGE...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 11/22/2010

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Taking a look at the HRRR max updraft helicity, would suggest the greatest threat is from the QCA south and east (shocker). I would think as far as the tornado threat goes we're looking at brief spin ups, but in the vicinity of that boundary there is the potential for something a little more organized.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 744

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1125 AM CST MON NOV 22 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA

PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ILLINOIS

PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1125 AM UNTIL 600

PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND

INTENSITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FROM ERN IA INTO NRN MO.

AIR MASS IS NOW MODESTLY UNSTABLE AND WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR

PROFILES IN PLACE...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. PRIMARY

THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE...HOWEVER SUPERCELLS INCLUDING POSSIBLE

TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING LOW

MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN IA INTO WI AND EWD NEAR WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN

IL.

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first warnings..

also SPI at 75/58

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL

1157 AM CST MON NOV 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SOUTH CENTRAL DES MOINES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...

EAST CENTRAL LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...

NORTHWESTERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

SOUTHERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CST.

* AT 1155 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS

OF 60 MPH...AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED

APPROXIMATELY NEAR MONTROSE...OR NEAR NAUVOO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST

AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

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Lapse rates on BUFKIT (12z NAM) between 700-500mb are 7.5-8C/km, with 50% or so of the total column CAPE within the hail growth region.

Also: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/12/

Click "Simulated Reflectivity and Simulated Composite Reflectivity". It is about 1-2 hours behind on initiation and propagation, so make the adjustments accordingly.

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

206 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN LA SALLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

SOUTH CENTRAL LEE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 230 PM CST

* AT 200 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER

CENTRAL BUREAU COUNTY...11 MILES WEST OF PRINCETON...AND MOVING

RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS STORM PRODUCED GOLF BALL

SIZED HAIL AT SHEFFIELD ILLINOIS AT 205 PM CST.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

MENDOTA...SUBLETTE...WEST BROOKLYN AND COMPTON.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL

219 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

BUREAU COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST.

* AT 214 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO NEAR KEWANEE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...OR NEAR KEWANEE...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

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