AtticaFanatica Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 What is SPG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 RUC showing 100kt H5 jet moving into OK by 0z...really think later on could be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 What is SPG? Im guessing he meant SGF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 What is SPG? SGF is Springfield MO I think that is what he meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 parts of northeast OK had dew points in the upper 30's at midnight and are now in the low 60's...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2075.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2075 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CST WED NOV 24 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NE OK...SE KS...SW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 241824Z - 242000Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL/NE OK...SE KS AND SW MO. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY. A WW SHOULD BECOME NECESSARY ONCE STORMS DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTIAL CLEARING FROM OKC NEWD TO TULSA WHERE THE CUMULUS IS AGITATED AND A FEW CELLS ARE TRYING TO INITIATE. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS ALREADY GONE ON THE 18Z NORMAN SOUNDING AND SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SLIGHTLY CONVERGENCE FLOW WHERE SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S F. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS NE OK INTO SE KS AND SW MO BY MID-AFTERNOON. SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE ACROSS THE MCD AREA BY 20Z AS IS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL SHORT-TERM MODELS. IN ADDITION...WSR-88D VWPS ALONG WITH THE 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM NORMAN AND SPRINGFIELD SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 75 TO 80 KT POINTING TO A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE GREATEST THREATS IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. HOWEVER...A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES MORE FOCUSED AND THE STORMS TAKE ON SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 The 18z OUN sounding is dry adiabatic to 800mb! Sfc-3km LR is 7.3C/km, and 700mb-500mb is 6.4C/km... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 The 18z OUN sounding is dry adiabatic to 800mb! Sfc-3km LR is 7.3C/km, and 700mb-500mb is 6.4C/km... What's this mean, then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 What's this mean, then? Very favorable low to mid level lapse rates like that are good for meso/tornadic development. Increased buoyancy in a low LCL environment tends to stretch vorticity vertically (picture a figure skater pulling her arms in), increasing it and resulting in a stronger rotation in updrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 What's this mean, then? The dry adiabatic lapse rate is the theoretical rate at which an unsaturated parcel would change temperature with height if forced upward or downward. In parcel theory, a parcel that is rising will cool at this rate (9.8C/km) until it reaches its LCL (lifted condensation level, the level at which the lifted parcel is saturated), at which point it will continue to cool at the moist adiabatic lapse rate, which is much less at the low-mid levels than the DALR because of the release of latent heat due to the process of condensation which occurs above the LCL. In today's case, because part of this layer that has a nearly-dry adiabatic lapse rate is above the LCL, the theoretical parcel will cool much less rapidly than the environment. When a parcel is warmer than its environment, it is unstable, and if lifted upward will continue to rise. The implications are clear for the severe threat. To have this very steep low-level lapse rate is to promote a very, very unstable low-level environment. This leads to high low-level CAPE values like were discussed for Monday's event. These high low-level CAPE values lead to rapid updraft acceleration, which promote strong vorticity stretching in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. This is what enhanced the strong tornado potential on Monday, and what I think is likely to do so today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Very favorable low to mid level lapse rates like that are good for meso/tornadic development. Increased buoyancy in a low LCL environment tends to stretch vorticity vertically (picture a figure skater pulling her arms in), increasing it and resulting in a stronger rotation in updrafts. The dry adiabatic lapse rate is the theoretical rate at which a completely dry parcel would change temperature with height if forced upward or downward. In parcel theory, a parcel that is rising will cool at this rate (9.8C/km) until it reaches its LCL (lifted condensation level, the level at which the lifted parcel is saturated), at which point it will continue to cool at the moist adiabatic lapse rate, which is much less at the low-mid levels than the DALR because of the release of latent heat due to the process of condensation which occurs above the LCL. In today's case, because part of this layer that has a nearly-dry adiabatic lapse rate is above the LCL, the theoretical parcel will cool much less rapidly than the environment. When a parcel is warmer than its environment, it is unstable, and if lifted upward will continue to rise. The implications are clear for the severe threat. To have this very steep low-level lapse rate is to promote a very, very unstable low-level environment. This leads to high low-level CAPE values like were discussed for Monday's event. These high low-level CAPE values lead to rapid updraft acceleration, which promote strong vorticity stretching in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. This is what enhanced the strong tornado potential on Monday, and what I think is likely to do so today. Thanks guys, so if that is the Norman sounding does that mean the balloon drifted towards the Tulsa area? Or, is there ripe somewhat unforeseen unstable juice over central Oklahoma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 With as much low-level CAPE and shear progged for this evening, I would probably be hatching the tornado risk at 20z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CST WED NOV 24 2010 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN OK TO LOWER MO VALLEY... --- UPDATES --- ..ERN OK TO LOWER MO VALLEY MINOR EWD SHIFT OF WRN PORTION OF SVR OUTLOOK RELATES TO EWD MOVEMENT OF MAIN CONFLUENCE LINE ACROSS ERN OK. THIS RESULTS IN SWLY SFC WINDS TO ITS W SUPPORTING WEAKER CONVERGENCE AND MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. VIS IMAGERY AND RADAR ANIMATIONS AS OF 1930Z INDICATE GRADUAL DEEPENING OF CONVECTION OVER SERN KS AND E-CENTRAL OK. THIS IS OCCURRING AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO MID-UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S F...SW OF WARM FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED NEAR HRO-JLN-CNU LINE AT 19Z. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED SOUNDINGS YIELD MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG IN ENVIRONMENT OF 60-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE. PROFILERS INDICATE 250-400 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH IN SAME AIR MASS. SUSTAINED TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE IMMINENT...EVOLVING INTO SUPERCELLS. REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2075 FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM FCST GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Tornado Watch issued for the risk area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 750 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 230 PM CST WED NOV 24 2010 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AS NWD MOVING WARM FRONT HAS ALLOWED AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO FLOW INTO AREA. VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE AND WITH CINH NEARLY GONE...STRONG UPDRAFTS COULD DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS THRU THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT FORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 The lead storm just west of Stockon, MO will have to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Cedar Co. Mo. storm getting closer to producing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHWxWatcher Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 321 PM CST WED NOV 24 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL CEDAR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... HICKORY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... SOUTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 345 PM CST. * AT 318 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO 4 MILES NORTH OF ARNICA...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF STOCKTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ARNICA...CAPLINGER MILLS...COLLINS... CROSS TIMBERS...ELKTON...FLEMINGTON...GERSTER...HERMITAGE... HUMANSVILLE...NEMO...PRESTON...QUINCY...WEAUBLEAU AND WHEATLAND. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE POMME DE TERRE LAKE AND TRUMAN LAKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Area of backed surface winds in SW MO looks to have the highest risk of tornadoes over the next couple of hours. To the S / SW veering of surface winds may reduce the threat somewhat despite higher instability parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHWxWatcher Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 A bit further to the west now. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 345 PM CST WED NOV 24 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... HICKORY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... SOUTHEASTERN BENTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 430 PM CST. * AT 341 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO 3 MILES EAST OF WEAUBLEAU...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HERMITAGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... WHEATLAND BY 350 PM CST. HERMITAGE BY 355 PM CST. CROSS TIMBERS AND PRESTON BY 400 PM CST. EDWARDS BY 410 PM CST. CLIMAX SPRINGS AND KNOBBY BY 415 PM CST. BARNUMTON BY 425 PM CST. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE LAKE OF THE OZARKS...POMME DE TERRE LAKE AND TRUMAN LAKE. IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Poor guy got too far into the cold air. But the environment in southwest MO still remains highly favorable for the trailing cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 This thing is likely producing a monster right now Debris Ball on radar, just wait and see the reports come in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Warm front seems to be having difficulty pushing ne of Rolla MO. 57 there with a south wind....St. Louis at 40...sw MO and nw AR seem to be where the action will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 This thing is likely producing a monster right now Debris Ball on radar, just wait and see the reports come in That storm is looking fairly impressive on radar right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 <br />This thing is likely producing a monster right now<br />Debris Ball on radar, just wait and see the reports come in<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />There's no debris ball there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 96kts g2g.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Not to rant here or anything but I wish SN would get rid of wall cloud reports, more like not rotating wall cloud reports. They really dont mean much and I have seen people call something a wall cloud when its a shelf cloud or some scud under a base. IMO what matters is the clear slot and thats the real tell of tornadogenesis. Or report wall clouds if there are things going for it that would make it a tornadic wall cloud and not a lowering under a base that serves no purpose to report. If it had sfc based inflow, rapid vertical motion into it or scud sucking, persistent rotation, and then the development of a clear slot. I know Paul Sirvatka and Tyler Allison (head of Spotter Network) have been talking about doing this. They should have a clear slot icon, thats more help to the NWS than a not rotating wall cloud report IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 0450 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 N WHEATLAND 37.99N 93.40W 11/24/2010 HICKORY MO EMERGENCY MNGR POSSIBLE TORNADO. A HOME HAS BEEN DAMAGED ON COUNTY ROAD 160 APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES NORTH OF WHEATLAND. ANOTHER HOME HAS BEEN DAMAGED JUST NORTH OF CROSS TIMBERS. THIS IS ALSO A POSSIBLE TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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