Thanksgiving Week Severe Weather

[Justin]

I can't really say that I'm not surprised at the tornadoes today as it was very similar to that January 2008 set up in a lot of ways. What surprises me somewhat is the apparent strength a couple of these tornadoes had...but as others have said its all relative to the surface and aloft. I'd imagine we had some pretty low LCL's from looking at some of the pics and therefore the tremendous shear and the little bit of instability combined with the low LCL's was enough to do the trick.

We are very fortunate to have not heard about fatalities and that is certainly something to be thankful about as we celebrate our holiday this week. My heart goes out to those that lost their homes, however. Its sad to see that happen.

To OceanSt- I can't wait to see those pics of that wall cloud feature you referenced earlier. That should be an interesting picture or set of pictures. I know these things basically fired up right on top of us literally. We are lucky here the front was a bit fast otherwise we could have had some dangerous stuff to be dealing with. I just got home so I am catching up on things and looking at information. I was on the site at work but only briefly as there were other things I had to tend to.

Ohio Valley/Southern Lakes may get to deal with a similar set up again Wed/Wed Night. Should be interesting. Now if we follow that 2008 pattern we should be getting our major snowstorm in about two weeks

[patrick7032]

I can't really say that I'm not surprised at the tornadoes today as it was very similar to that January 2008 set up in a lot of ways. What surprises me somewhat is the apparent strength a couple of these tornadoes had...but as others have said its all relative to the surface and aloft. I'd imagine we had some pretty low LCL's from looking at some of the pics and therefore the tremendous shear and the little bit of instability combined with the low LCL's was enough to do the trick.

We are very fortunate to have not heard about fatalities and that is certainly something to be thankful about as we celebrate our holiday this week. My heart goes out to those that lost their homes, however. Its sad to see that happen.

To OceanSt- I can't wait to see those pics of that wall cloud feature you referenced earlier. That should be an interesting picture or set of pictures. I know these things basically fired up right on top of us literally. We are lucky here the front was a bit fast otherwise we could have had some dangerous stuff to be dealing with. I just got home so I am catching up on things and looking at information. I was on the site at work but only briefly as there were other things I had to tend to.

Ohio Valley/Southern Lakes may get to deal with a similar set up again Wed/Wed Night. Should be interesting. Now if we follow that 2008 pattern we should be getting our major snowstorm in about two weeks

Yeah I think I might have a fun shift Thursday, if I didn't just put the hex on it. Very similar to today.

[Chicago WX]

Nothing severe, but has to be easy 40MPH+ gusts here as the line of storms have arrived in LAF.

[northpittweather]

Yeah I think I might have a fun shift Thursday, if I didn't just put the hex on it. Very similar to today.

Looks like areas from Ohio into Western PA really needs to watch for a very similar set up to today's, on a major holiday which may have some serious consequences

[Justin]

yes, enjoy that patrick, should've said thurs too since northern ohio/southern michigan southward could be an interesting zone thanksgiving day. I wonder though if the stronger impulse in the mid and upper levels will shoot more up across WI/IL and leave the actual areas more warmer/moist/slightly unstable with a bit less support aloft than today though. I have a feeling that might be what happens. Perhaps more of a marginal wind/hail threat and not so much tornadoes, but we got a day or two to see how that evolves.

[patrick7032]

Looks like areas from Ohio into Western PA really needs to watch for a very similar set up to today's, on a major holiday which may have some serious consequences

I'd say more so Kentucky into southern lower Michigan and western Ohio. I don't think eastern Ohio and western Penn would get convection until after 03z....If you look at 850 the LLJ is pointed at KTOL at 00z, and seeing that the best convection tends to occur along the left edge of the LLJ it would imply a further west threat area.

[northpittweather]

I'd say more so Kentucky into southern lower Michigan and western Ohio. I don't think eastern Ohio and western Penn would get convection until after 03z....If you look at 850 the LLJ is pointed at KTOL at 00z, and seeing that the best convection tends to occur along the left edge of the LLJ it would imply a further west threat area.

Just saying that the models shift slight bit the threat changes, but to be on the safe side, my area could be across the OV Valley, you know how bad it could be if even one strong tornado hits during a major holiday

[patrick7032]

yes, enjoy that patrick, should've said thurs too since northern ohio/southern michigan southward could be an interesting zone thanksgiving day. I wonder though if the stronger impulse in the mid and upper levels will shoot more up across WI/IL and leave the actual areas more warmer/moist/slightly unstable with a bit less support aloft than today though. I have a feeling that might be what happens. Perhaps more of a marginal wind/hail threat and not so much tornadoes, but we got a day or two to see how that evolves.

Yeah I can agree with that Justin....and you forgot the "X FACTOR'....I'M ON SHIFT....whenever stebo or I am working it deflects around us....case and point today.... KLAN and KFNT have had multiple TS obs....and as it got within 60SM of me the LTG disappeared....just as it does with stebo....metro and the FAA should pay us extra for improving air ops....OUR SHEILDS ALWAYS HOLD.

[Stebo]

Yeah I can agree with that Justin....and you forgot the "X FACTOR'....I'M ON SHIFT....whenever stebo or I am working it deflects around us....case and point today.... KLAN and KFNT have had multiple TS obs....and as it got within 60SM of me the LTG disappeared....just as it does with stebo....metro and the FAA should pay us extra for improving air ops....OUR SHEILDS ALWAYS HOLD.

I personally don't mind when the storms go north or south, though you have to remember I was here when we had hail.

[patrick7032]

Just saying that the models shift slight bit the threat changes, but to be on the safe side, my area could be across the OV Valley, you know how bad it could be if even one strong tornado hits during a major holiday

I agree with Justin with the dynamics being further removed to the west (more dis-placed than today) I have reservations right now about any severe chance, and am just making a "first guess" based on what I would expect with the LLVL theta advection, but without looking at other model data and thermodynamics yet it is just a "first guess". Based on the jet LLVL fields I would definitely think further west. I do see the 50kts at 850 at 18z pointing into the area you mentioned, but by 00z it "re-orientates" itself and believe the action would be along the front and along any rise/fall pressure couplet as expected similar to today.

[patrick7032]

I personally don't mind when the storms go north or south, though you have to remember I was here when we had hail.

Yeah Steve but I liked doing my two funnel cloud obs this year.

[northpittweather]

I agree with Justin with the dynamics being further removed to the west (more dis-placed than today) I have reservations right now about any severe chance, and am just making a "first guess" based on what I would expect with the LLVL theta advection, but without looking at other model data and thermodynamics yet it is just a "first guess". Based on the jet LLVL fields I would definitely think further west. I do see the 50kts at 850 at 18z pointing into the area you mentioned, but by 00z it "re-orientates" itself and believe the action would be along the front and along any rise/fall pressure couplet as expected similar to today.

Let the waiting game begin!!!!!

[Hoosier]

I agree with Justin with the dynamics being further removed to the west (more dis-placed than today) I have reservations right now about any severe chance, and am just making a "first guess" based on what I would expect with the LLVL theta advection, but without looking at other model data and thermodynamics yet it is just a "first guess". Based on the jet LLVL fields I would definitely think further west. I do see the 50kts at 850 at 18z pointing into the area you mentioned, but by 00z it "re-orientates" itself and believe the action would be along the front and along any rise/fall pressure couplet as expected similar to today.

It's almost like you did that on purpose. Hard to argue with the best threat being south/east though barring the unlikely scenario of something trending back toward the 12z NAM.

[patrick7032]

Let the waiting game begin!!!!!

Yeah pretty much....but at least we have some interesting stuff to watch and wait for.

[Ian]

http://fb.me/KiCknUyn

[Natester]

Here's some up close footage of the tornado.

[patrick7032]

It's almost like you did that on purpose. Hard to argue with the best threat being south/east though barring the unlikely scenario of something trending back toward the 12z NAM.

I disagree ....to me it's easy to argue that based on the LLJ....and further east would be further away from the mid and upper level dynamics....but we shall see....I still think the highlighted area would be the spot IF IT OCCURS.

[David Reimer]

Here's some up close footage of the tornado.

Very impressive video! The individual who filmed this maintained his composure and had a steady hand. This is some of the better tornado video I've seen this year that was taken from an amateur.

[Stebo]

Very impressive video! The individual who filmed this maintained his composure and had a steady hand. This is some of the better tornado video I've seen this year that was taken from an amateur.

Yeah that was a pretty pretty impressive tornado.

[patrick7032]

Yeah that was a pretty pretty impressive tornado.

Yeah it was and I agree great video....Here is a link with damage video from the Caledonia tornado.

[L.B. LaForce]

Monday the 29th (my birthday) also looks decent in the same area again

[OceanStWx]

Managed to grab those photos from north of Davenport. The photo of the wall cloud is looking SW, with the WFO located to the left out of the shot. So from our view we could see the RFD clear slot wrapping around with a low contrast wall cloud tucked back inside it.

The RFD clear slot showed up nicely once the storms went through, as evidenced by the picture showing blue sky and a backlit updraft tower.

The funnel shot was from the turbulent RFD, a shear funnel (not associated with a meso). We could not see this from the office.

[patrick7032]

Managed to grab those photos from north of Davenport. The photo of the wall cloud is looking SW, with the WFO located to the left out of the shot. So from our view we could see the RFD clear slot wrapping around with a low contrast wall cloud tucked back inside it.

The RFD clear slot showed up nicely once the storms went through, as evidenced by the picture showing blue sky and a backlit updraft tower.

The funnel shot was from the turbulent RFD, a shear funnel (not associated with a meso). We could not see this from the office.

Very nice pics....bet you will see those in the spotter training video for your office CWA.

[Hoosier]

Per Dr. Forbes, the last November tornado in Wisconsin occurred in 1971.

[patrick7032]

Nice rain here....I have been at 3SM for a half hour now and have picked up 0.61 so far.

[patrick7032]

Nice rain here....I have been at 3SM for a half hour now and have picked up 0.61 so far.

Well up to 0.76 as I leave and I'm still at 3SM....should be a fun drive on the Ford freeway.....or should I say Ford River.

[cyclone77]

Managed to grab those photos from north of Davenport. The photo of the wall cloud is looking SW, with the WFO located to the left out of the shot. So from our view we could see the RFD clear slot wrapping around with a low contrast wall cloud tucked back inside it.

The RFD clear slot showed up nicely once the storms went through, as evidenced by the picture showing blue sky and a backlit updraft tower.

The funnel shot was from the turbulent RFD, a shear funnel (not associated with a meso). We could not see this from the office.

Interesting pics. The supercell that produced tornadoes in the Rockford area points northeast actually passed just to the north of DVN. A few smaller supercells developed right over DVN and seemed to get absorbed into the larger, more dominant supercell just north as it progressed northeast. I had a pretty nice glimpse of the towers to the north of here before the weaker supercell to the southwest moved in and impacted our area with rain. Even with our much weaker supercell there was some interesting cloud formations on the back side. It was very disorganized though. Couldn't really pick out a single strong updraft base.

[Thundersnow12]

dont know if this was said but I found this interesting looking at the tornado reports (8 as of now per spc reports) all 8 of them occurred in a 60 minute window, from 21:00z to 22:00z

[Chicago Storm]

I ended up having a good chase for late November standards...

I ended up catching what ended up being the lead cells in Southern De Kalb County. Radar showed the cell had a defined hook and rotation and was eventually tornado warned. The cell featured a lower/wall cloud the whole time I was on the cell across De Kalb and as it entered Kane County. I was position on Route 30 between Waterman and Hinckley most of the time as that is where the best view was. The lowering ended up crossing the road a bit to my east, though portion of the board area of rotation did pass overhead. As it passed I tried to keep up, but storm motions were to fast and I lost it in Kane County.

Here are a few pictures of the lowering/wall cloud as it as it passed Route 30 between Waterman and Hinckley..

Sorry for the low quality, I have a horrible camera...I can't wait to get a DSLR camera.

[Hoosier]

EF1 in Walworth county Wisconsin. Another possible tornado to be investigated tomorrow.

EF1 Tornado - Walworth County

Start: 3.2miles SE of the Village of Walworth at 3:33PM

End: 2 miles NNE of Zenda at 3:38PM

Length: 4 miles

Width: Approximately 100 yards

Details: 2 homes recieved significant roof damage. Approximately 80% of each roof destroyed. One of these homes shifted on its foundation. Additionally, 2 other homes recieved minor damage. 4 barns were damaged, and several power poles downed.

radar images here:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=60113&source=0