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Off we go, Tracking the Friday All In Storm/NADS


stormtracker

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For what it's worth the 09Z SREF looks decent as is. Don't like the fact that it develops the low as it's moving away. 6 hour difference either way on developing that low and you are talking a good snowstorm or an inch or two.

Hoping this ice storm is the changing of the pattern. Normal year is it develops too late... let's see if things have finally corrected themselves. Stay tuned.

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When Wes is readying a post, it's like Galadriel as Frodo approaches...the steps of doom.

ETA: But I am thrilled he's feeling better.

HA! Well, as long as you don't compare his posts to being like the eye of Sauron focusing on you!:lol: Following these possible snow events this season has seemed like carrying the ring though, a heavy burden that saps your energy and twists your mind!

Maybe a better analogy would be Gandalf? A realist, but still hopeful in the face of a bad situation!

Is that Ji I see, caressing the JMA, saying "myyyy preeeeecioussss!"???:lmao:

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surface temps is in the mid 30s in Northern VA and upper 30s in Central VA at 72hrs so temps is borderline on this run but its better than the 00 run

biggerboat, should I go all fungal on him regarding his mismatch of singular verbs and plural nouns? This is something I would expect in the Southeastern forum, not MidAtl.

I'd rather have cold enough 850s than surface temps right now. Surface temps will come around if the 850s are good. Didn't the NAM nail last night's storm from near this time range?

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Why the heck is their negativity on this event Friday? Besides the Euro, there's pretty good consistency between the NAM, GFS, and GGEM and all show us getting our biggest snow of the season with a general 3-5".

Probably because we've been burned badly enough this year that our skin is starting to bubble.

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No one except psuhoffman should punt Friday yet.

I am on record as saying I think its 1-4" for DC and Baltimore, probably 2-5" north of Baltimore for my area and yours. I punted on the "big ticket event" idea because the H5 track looks too far north. Many on here would be happy with 2-3" and so by no means am i encouraging people to give up on this. Plus, its a long shot, but perhaps the H5 track shifts 100 miles south and we end up with a big snow. I am wrong plenty of times. Purely from the perspective of getting a 6" plus event I do favor the setup for the storm next week, but its way out in lala land still.

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Which doesn't explain why many who were punting this event earlier this morning were focusing instead on next weeks "threat." wink.gif

I can't speak for everyone in that thread, but I am not "focusing" on anything. I am going about my life and twice a day I check the models and try to figure out what may happen. I can look at both storm chances. I simply think the storm next week has more potential to be a big event (6" or more) then the one Friday. Luckily, what I think or focus on has no bearing on the actual weather.

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I'd feel a lot better about the means "showing the way" if Wes or Ian (or one of the other red tags) wandered through and said there was more reason to be optimistic about them doing that this time than the other times this winter that that has not worked out for us.

the means being the ensemble means?

Ian's waiting for you to pour your bowl of Corn Flakes before he can piss in them.

:P

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Why the heck is their negativity on this event Friday? Besides the Euro, there's pretty good consistency between the NAM, GFS, and GGEM and all show us getting our biggest snow of the season with a general 3-5".

I think it is because we are in a huge slump. And the pattern looks the same as the past three fish-ins that gave us squat.

You know how in baseball when a team is in a slump, someone on the team will hook up with a fat chick to bust the slump? A Slumpbuster. We need someone in the DC area to take one for the team. Who is up for it?

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For the uneducated in this thread, what the hell is NADS? I have been seeing this acronym for days. Somehow, I missed its birth.

nads is the storm that dt made up after the friday event that wont be happening

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Yes. Them. The ensemble means.

i havent really looked at them much to be honest. there is OK agreement among the ops so that's enough for me. it should snow. wxusaf's 3-5" seems like about the best case scnario.

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I think it is because we are in a huge slump. And the pattern looks the same as the past three fish-ins that gave us squat.

You know how in baseball when a team is in a slump, someone on the team will hook up with a fat chick to bust the slump? A Slumpbuster. We need someone in the DC area to take one for the team. Who is up for it?

I agree it feel like a huge slump given that most areas more than 50-75mi from DC and Baltimore have above normal snowfall for the year, but even those of us in the snowhole are doing decently relative to averages...particularly La Nina averages. IMBY, we've got >5" of snow on the year now, although it's been totally nickeled and dimed to get there. For mid-January, that's not far off the mark from normal.

If we get a 3-5" on Friday, everyone's probably at or above normal on the season.

P.S. Also maybe the bonus dusting-2" tonight?

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I agree it feel like a huge slump given that most areas more than 50-75mi from DC and Baltimore have above normal snowfall for the year, but even those of us in the snowhole are doing decently relative to averages...particularly La Nina averages. IMBY, we've got >5" of snow on the year now, although it's been totally nickeled and dimed to get there. For mid-January, that's not far off the mark from normal.

I have had less than 3" here, so I would think that is well below average. But I must say it has been an entertaining winter in tracking storms and rumors of storms even if none have really panned out.

If we get a 3-5" on Friday, everyone's probably at or above normal on the season.

If DC gets 3-5" on Friday, I will call it the Slumpbuster Storm. It is not gonna happen though.

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