Quasievil Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 For what it's worth the 09Z SREF looks decent as is. Don't like the fact that it develops the low as it's moving away. 6 hour difference either way on developing that low and you are talking a good snowstorm or an inch or two. Hoping this ice storm is the changing of the pattern. Normal year is it develops too late... let's see if things have finally corrected themselves. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 When Wes is readying a post, it's like Galadriel as Frodo approaches...the steps of doom. ETA: But I am thrilled he's feeling better. HA! Well, as long as you don't compare his posts to being like the eye of Sauron focusing on you! Following these possible snow events this season has seemed like carrying the ring though, a heavy burden that saps your energy and twists your mind! Maybe a better analogy would be Gandalf? A realist, but still hopeful in the face of a bad situation! Is that Ji I see, caressing the JMA, saying "myyyy preeeeecioussss!"??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 surface temps is in the mid 30s in Northern VA and upper 30s in Central VA at 72hrs so temps is borderline on this run but its better than the 00 run biggerboat, should I go all fungal on him regarding his mismatch of singular verbs and plural nouns? This is something I would expect in the Southeastern forum, not MidAtl. I'd rather have cold enough 850s than surface temps right now. Surface temps will come around if the 850s are good. Didn't the NAM nail last night's storm from near this time range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Wes is posting. I only care if he is driving the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 lol I was doing the same thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Why the heck is their negativity on this event Friday? Besides the Euro, there's pretty good consistency between the NAM, GFS, and GGEM and all show us getting our biggest snow of the season with a general 3-5". Probably because we've been burned badly enough this year that our skin is starting to bubble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Not that we should be taking QPF numbers from the NAM at 66+ hours seriously, but for fun... IAD: 0.29" DCA: 0.43" BWI: 0.44" checking out the skewts from the NAM on Accuwx, BWI gets a mix its early and it will change, but just saying verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I just read it I think he's out of his mind he must have read what DT posted the other day and thought "oh no you don't , they're my weenie nation" wait.... you are just figuring out now that he is out of his mind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Wes dosent need to post as I know what he is going to say. The vort and 850 low are too far north for dc snow and it's not a classic setup but things can change and long range is not really his thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaSnow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 For the uneducated in this thread, what the hell is NADS? I have been seeing this acronym for days. Somehow, I missed its birth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 No one except psuhoffman should punt Friday yet. I am on record as saying I think its 1-4" for DC and Baltimore, probably 2-5" north of Baltimore for my area and yours. I punted on the "big ticket event" idea because the H5 track looks too far north. Many on here would be happy with 2-3" and so by no means am i encouraging people to give up on this. Plus, its a long shot, but perhaps the H5 track shifts 100 miles south and we end up with a big snow. I am wrong plenty of times. Purely from the perspective of getting a 6" plus event I do favor the setup for the storm next week, but its way out in lala land still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Probably because we've been burned badly enough this year that our skin is starting to bubble. Which doesn't explain why many who were punting this event earlier this morning were focusing instead on next weeks "threat." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Which doesn't explain why many who were punting this event earlier this morning were focusing instead on next weeks "threat." I can't speak for everyone in that thread, but I am not "focusing" on anything. I am going about my life and twice a day I check the models and try to figure out what may happen. I can look at both storm chances. I simply think the storm next week has more potential to be a big event (6" or more) then the one Friday. Luckily, what I think or focus on has no bearing on the actual weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'd feel a lot better about the means "showing the way" if Wes or Ian (or one of the other red tags) wandered through and said there was more reason to be optimistic about them doing that this time than the other times this winter that that has not worked out for us. the means being the ensemble means? Ian's waiting for you to pour your bowl of Corn Flakes before he can piss in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Why the heck is their negativity on this event Friday? Besides the Euro, there's pretty good consistency between the NAM, GFS, and GGEM and all show us getting our biggest snow of the season with a general 3-5". I think it is because we are in a huge slump. And the pattern looks the same as the past three fish-ins that gave us squat. You know how in baseball when a team is in a slump, someone on the team will hook up with a fat chick to bust the slump? A Slumpbuster. We need someone in the DC area to take one for the team. Who is up for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 lol upset with how good i am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 the means being the ensemble means? Yes. Them. The ensemble means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 For the uneducated in this thread, what the hell is NADS? I have been seeing this acronym for days. Somehow, I missed its birth. nads is the storm that dt made up after the friday event that wont be happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yes. Them. The ensemble means. i havent really looked at them much to be honest. there is OK agreement among the ops so that's enough for me. it should snow. wxusaf's 3-5" seems like about the best case scnario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I think it is because we are in a huge slump. And the pattern looks the same as the past three fish-ins that gave us squat. You know how in baseball when a team is in a slump, someone on the team will hook up with a fat chick to bust the slump? A Slumpbuster. We need someone in the DC area to take one for the team. Who is up for it? I agree it feel like a huge slump given that most areas more than 50-75mi from DC and Baltimore have above normal snowfall for the year, but even those of us in the snowhole are doing decently relative to averages...particularly La Nina averages. IMBY, we've got >5" of snow on the year now, although it's been totally nickeled and dimed to get there. For mid-January, that's not far off the mark from normal. If we get a 3-5" on Friday, everyone's probably at or above normal on the season. P.S. Also maybe the bonus dusting-2" tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaSnow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 nads is the storm that dt made up after the friday event that wont be happening Okay. But does NADS stand for anything? Or is it a DT typo? GROINPT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 If we get a 3-5" on Friday, everyone's probably at or above normal on the season. maybe this will stop all the crying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Okay. But does NADS stand for anything? Or is it a DT typo? GROINPT! new and different screwjob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 P.S. Also maybe the bonus dusting-2" tonight? Hmmm...might have spoke to soon on that one. Column looks too warm below 900mb, at least right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 new and different screwjob dt is already on to the jan 25 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 maybe this will stop all the crying Doubtful. NYC and SNE are going to get shelacked again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 dt is already on to the jan 25 event before everyone had access the euro his magic was more magical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 new and different screwjob Alternatively - Now Appearing to be Dusting or Sleet.... ...or... Not Any Damn Snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I agree it feel like a huge slump given that most areas more than 50-75mi from DC and Baltimore have above normal snowfall for the year, but even those of us in the snowhole are doing decently relative to averages...particularly La Nina averages. IMBY, we've got >5" of snow on the year now, although it's been totally nickeled and dimed to get there. For mid-January, that's not far off the mark from normal. I have had less than 3" here, so I would think that is well below average. But I must say it has been an entertaining winter in tracking storms and rumors of storms even if none have really panned out. If we get a 3-5" on Friday, everyone's probably at or above normal on the season. If DC gets 3-5" on Friday, I will call it the Slumpbuster Storm. It is not gonna happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 before everyone had access the euro his magic was more magical It's funny how after the last fiasco he said he was never going to advertise big snows for RIC and central VA again this year, and he's been honking more JB the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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