Ji Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 DT needs to punt the Euro this year. Its really done him wrong this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Leaving in the tug hill of Maryland will make you jaded with these piddly events. why do so many have a problem with what my preferences are? I do not consider what I want when I make a prediction or give analysis of a system. As for my expectations, I am not unrealistic. I realize not many storms will be 6" plus, but living where I do 2-3 per year should be and that would make me happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I like the looks of this so far a little diff than what we've seen so far this year...so far at least Speaking of different, maybe tonights event is the change. It's different that what we've had, at least with the weather that's actually occuring. Another thing, the GFS has been pretty solid with this storm, but even it was modeled too warm about 3 or 4 days out. What was supposed to be some light freezing rain has turned into an evening long snow. Temps at my place are at 24.2, about 10 miles north of the Winchester airport, with decent snow falling. Maybe this next one does the same, comes in colder, with our new friend, precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GGEM dry slot for us? http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/133_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 why do so many have a problem with what my preferences are? I do not consider what I want when I make a prediction or give analysis of a system. As for my expectations, I am not unrealistic. I realize not many storms will be 6" plus, but living where I do 2-3 per year should be and that would make me happy. Good news.. winter doesn't end tomorrow. Until it does, quit whining with every post about something you have no control over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GGEM dry slot for us? http://www.weatherof...ast/133_100.gif round whitish hole we're in is the 10-25mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Good news.. winter doesn't end tomorrow. Until it does, quit whining with every post about something you have no control over. I dont know what is worse, the people that do nothing but predict snow, or the ones that complain when someone gives an honest opinion that things do not look good for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 UKMET has possibilities seems colder than most models at 72 hours 700mb RH looks a bit north but 850 RH looks fine EDIT: GFS'ish iow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 round whitish hole we're in is the 10-25mm ggem took a step in the wrong direction H5 track is way too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 ggem took a step in the wrong direction H5 track is way too far north 540 line almost right over BWI look, none of the models have been worth crap this year in the 4 day range I'm not getting worried about details from this far out GFS still looks good and that model has been as good, if not better, than most of the MR models on average this year at this range, with the flatter look working just fine for our neck of the woods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 hoffman has officially killed the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 If Hoffman is right he will be king, but if he is wrong he is going to have to eat a S**TLOAD of crow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 hoffman has officially killed the storm. Then he will be 5 for 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 540 line almost right over BWI look, none of the models have been worth crap this year in the 4 day range I'm not getting worried about details from this far out GFS still looks good and that model has been as good, if not better, than most of the MR models on average this year at this range, with the flatter look working just fine for our neck of the woods GFS looks ok at the surface but its a disaster at H5. So is the GGEM , forget what the surface shows, it just shifted the track of the H5 vort from right across MD to across Northern PA. GFS has the same track. There is no way were getting more then another 1-4" type event with the H5 track like that. The trend is the same on all guidance right now, and its trending further and further away from what we want. I am not even looking at the surface slp and precip maps. The H5 track has been worse and worse the last 3 runs, and its moving more and more towards the same track that has screwed us over all winter. I am sorry if this analysis upsets anyone, and please if you wish to wear the rose colored glasses do not let me stop you. I am not trying to be negative but if the honest analysis is bad for snow I am not going to lie and pretend its good just because that is what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 hoffman has officially killed the storm. I do not have a magic 8 ball or anything, and I do think it may snow some, but without a major shift in the H5 setup this is another minor event for the DC area again. If I had to guess right now I would say 1-3" of snow then either dryslot or rain. Heavy snows stay north of the PA turnpike. But its 4 days out and I really hope things shift south and I will gladly eat that crow, but models are converging on a scenario that fits right in with the seasonal pattern, and that is hard to ignore honestly. FYI: until I see an H5 setup where the track of the H5 vort is south of DC I am not going to get excited for big snows. The models keep trying to find ways to manufacture a big snowstorm even while showing an H5 track that is not all too favorable for it, then they adjust to reality once closer to the event. I am done being fooled by this nonsense until they show an upper level pattern that really looks right for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS looks ok at the surface but its a disaster at H5. So is the GGEM , forget what the surface shows, it just shifted the track of the H5 vort from right across MD to across Northern PA. GFS has the same track. There is no way were getting more then another 1-4" type event with the H5 track like that. The trend is the same on all guidance right now, and its trending further and further away from what we want. I am not even looking at the surface slp and precip maps. The H5 track has been worse and worse the last 3 runs, and its moving more and more towards the same track that has screwed us over all winter. I am sorry if this analysis upsets anyone, and please if you wish to wear the rose colored glasses do not let me stop you. I am not trying to be negative but if the honest analysis is bad for snow I am not going to lie and pretend its good just because that is what we want. I know that who said we'd get more? it ain't our year for a large synoptic snow event I think I was the first to throw in the towel on that fact I'm in the "I'll take any kind of snow" mode now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 DT needs to punt the Euro this year. Its really done him wrong this season this year DT is Charley Brown and the Euro is Lucy with the football Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I know that who said we'd get more? it ain't our year for a large synoptic snow event I think I was the first to throw in the towel on that fact I'm in the "I'll take any kind of snow" mode now oh, well if your trying for a 1-3" event then Friday has potential still.... I am in a completely different place, I am am waiting for either 6" plus or a nice warmup where I can play some golf or go for a bike ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I will try to be more positive here though, I do think we get at least one signficant event here before winter is over. We have the cold and that is usually the bigger battle for our area. I think in February when wavelengths tend to shorten some, it may allow the northern branch to buckle a little more and get some of these vorts far enough south for our area. I am not giving up on winter, just still in waiting mode until I see it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 If Hoffman is right he will be king, but if he is wrong he is going to have to eat a S**TLOAD of crow. This is not a hard winter to call. Hoffman does well in bad winters. Same thing as last winter when Ian looked like Wes when he called for a HECS every other week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This is not a hard winter to call. Hoffman does well in bad winters. Same thing as last winter when Ian looked like Wes when he called for a HECS every other week. not sure what your talking about for last winter, I thought all 3 of our HECS storms looked good from a week out. You kept picking on me for agonizing over where the maximum amounts would set up once I know a storm will be big I try to nail down the details, thats part of the fun in challenging myself. The only storm I was really really bad with last year was the early march storm that I thought would be significant but the northern branch never phased. That said I am NOT any better then anyone else and certainly not in the league of Wes and some of the pro's we have on here, so I can and have been wrong many many times and hopefully this next storm is one of them. That said right now I would bet I see more snow from this event tonight then from the Friday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 the storm showing up around day 7-8 on the models is not the NADS storm, that energy completely washes out now, but then there is another southern wave behind it. I actually like the setup for that better right now then the Friday storm. Its way too far out yet but it has a chance because the h5 vort is diving much further south so it could take a good track. It could also cut west if it phases too soon but it at least has a shot to be a big storm here if the trough can get far enough east before starting to lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Doesnt look like the EURO is very good, looks like storm goes over DC..freezing line up to MD PA border or so...not a great solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 <br />Doesnt look like the EURO is very good, looks like storm goes over DC..freezing line up to MD PA border or so...not a great solution.<br /><br /><br /><br />Looks like an inch or so here and 1-3 inches up towards NYC. However, not to stray from its pattern of day 6-8 fantasy snow storms, the Euro does this next week: yea its the storm next tues....it develops a weak low off hse that moves ne then gets cut off and sits just off nj coast dumps light to then mod/hvy then back to lgt precip from hrs 174 to 216...about 1-1.25 qpf from phl to nyc and .75-1 from dc to balt Per tomb They should have never tinkered with the Euro. It's been a fantasy machine in the medium range this winter. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> Looks like an inch or so here and 1-3 inches up towards NYC. However, not to stray from its pattern of day 6-8 fantasy snow storms, the Euro does this next week: yea its the storm next tues....it develops a weak low off hse that moves ne then gets cut off and sits just off nj coast dumps light to then mod/hvy then back to lgt precip from hrs 174 to 216...about 1-1.25 qpf from phl to nyc and .75-1 from dc to balt Per tomb They should have never tinkered with the Euro. It's been a fantasy machine in the medium range this winter. MDstorm Yeah IDK what happened, I hate to blame everythign on LA Nina but last year and previous years it was have a solution 4 days out and lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 forget the rediculous solution on the euro, the GGEM/GFS has a solution for day 8 that is pretty good, the northern stream is digging further south then it has lately and that could get our area into the action for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldenuno Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 With the first pick in the 2011 AMWX Fantasy Draft, the Golden Unos select, "The Euro". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Keeping the focus on the Friday potential in this thread, the move in the modeling yesterday was not real favorable for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Keeping the focus on the Friday potential in this thread, the move in the modeling yesterday was not real favorable for our area. After glancing over the 00Z and the 06Z models I had felt that there was improvement on most compared to their previous runs. Guess I will check over them again and take a little harder look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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