Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 NAM gives IAD .20 qpf...at 10:1 ratios..probably good for 2 inches. that a HECS this year. The more west of DC..the more qpf. Of course, thats the NAM qpf which you can probably cut in half right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This is pretty much a 1 to 3, 2 to 4 "storm". Lets just ride with that and accept it as maybe an appetizer for the storm after? here is the problem...Feb 2010, i got 5 inches in ONE hour. This year, i cant get 5 inches for the entire winter. So yea..it sucks. i feel like the ohio valley getting nickeled and dime. We are the east coast baby...we have an ocean and the gulf to help us get qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 i understand people get bent out of shape over things, but it shouldn't be about snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 here is the problem...Feb 2010, i got 5 inches in ONE hour. This year, i cant get 5 inches for the entire winter. So yea..it sucks. i feel like the ohio valley getting nickeled and dime. We are the east coast baby...we have an ocean and the gulf to help us get qpf. Ji... it's not 2010 and last winter was a once in a decade thing. The sooner you realize that, the sooner you wont feel so disappointed by only getting 2 inches rather than 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Not sure I like seeing the normally wet NAM so dry. GFS could be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 if the NAM can just hold this would definitely be a 2-4" event for the area considering ratios; I'm happy w/that what's really driving me nuts, however, are the models jumping around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Not sure I like seeing the normally wet NAM so dry. GFS could be ugly. I still think the CRAS will come through with our 940-mb mega-blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I've been consistently thinking 1-3 for DCA and BWI... a general blend of the last few days worth of runs seems to support that idea. RIC could come in around 0.5" with some mixing, NoVA looking at around an inch... map coming in a few hours EDIT: Going to say that 0.5" snow at RIC is an "at best" forecast, with likelier solution being mixed/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12z NAM definitely took the vort max north a bit. Hence lower precip totals. Looks very much like the recent GFS runs. Amazing to say it, but the GFS has been the leader among the models the last few weeks and all the rest keep playing catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 if the NAM can just hold this would definitely be a 2-4" event for the area considering ratios; I'm happy w/that what's really driving me nuts, however, are the models jumping around I am still feeling 2 for DCA and 4 for us. The same Bozo in Elkton that keeps getting the "jackpot" in these little events will measure 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 its a clipper that isn't going to bomb that's just the way we have to look at it I will say this, it will be one cold weekend because whatever falls will not melt for some time to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12z NAM definitely took the vort max north a bit. Hence lower precip totals. Looks very much like the recent GFS runs. Amazing to say it, but the GFS has been the leader among the models the last few weeks and all the rest keep playing catch up. Which is why I am not buying this psuhoffman storm at all right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I've been consistently thinking 1-3 for DCA and BWI... a general blend of the last few days worth of runs seems to support that idea. RIC could come in around 0.5" with some mixing, NoVA looking at around an inch... map coming in a few hours cant wait to see your thoughts on the PSUHoffman storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 That's not the issue. Wes posting about how the storm looks bad from a meteorological standpoint is fine. Any met or experienced hobbyist doing this is OK. But how many worthless posts about how things suck do we need to see from weenies? You all literally suck the life and fun out of this board. You think things are bad, we get that. You think the storm will blow, great. I got nothing against folks expressing that. Say it once and move on. OK then, make it so everyone is allowed one post per storm. That would be a blast. I mean, after each model run, people in the snow camp repeatedly give their opinion on why they think it will snow and how much, so I see it no different that people in the other camp can't do the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I've been consistently thinking 1-3 for DCA and BWI... a general blend of the last few days worth of runs seems to support that idea. RIC could come in around 0.5" with some mixing, NoVA looking at around an inch... map coming in a few hours Yes you have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Ji... it's not 2010 and last winter was a once in a decade lifetime thing. The sooner you realize that, the sooner you wont feel so disappointed by only getting 2 inches rather than 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Which is why I am not buying this psuhoffman storm at all right now. look at the gfs ensembles first before saying that. the OP is out of whack with even its own members. 80% of the members show a good storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Not great at reading these maps but this looks to me like it just misses being something a little extra special for DC or Balt north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 OK then, make it so everyone is allowed one post per storm. That would be a blast. I mean, after each model run, people in the snow camp repeatedly give their opinion on why they think it will snow and how much, so I see it no different that people in the other camp can't do the same thing. You're missing the point entirely. He's trying to quell the downers who are complaining for the sake of complaining, rather than giving actual evidence as to why something will or will not occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 if the NAM can just hold this would definitely be a 2-4" event for the area considering ratios; I'm happy w/that what's really driving me nuts, however, are the models jumping around That's me. I went to bed last night thinking that the models were coming into some alignment, some consistency between runs, then BAM. Total changes, big jumps between runs. Maybe today into tonight we get some consistency going again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Which is why I am not buying this psuhoffman storm at all right now. I can see that. The one difference is that the GFS ensembles are supportive of that storm. Ensembles have been matching the OP pretty well with the Thurs/Fri storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 OK then, make it so everyone is allowed one post per storm. That would be a blast. I mean, after each model run, people in the snow camp repeatedly give their opinion on why they think it will snow and how much, so I see it no different that people in the other camp can't do the same thing. You seemed to miss Randy's point about the constant "this winter sucks", "we never get snow", "storm cancel" posts bring the board down. Who wants to read that crap? If you (or anyone else for that matter) wishes to punt this system because they are not happy with two inches, say so and move the f on. Don't continue to post about a system that isn't exciting enough for you. I fully believe there are some people who read this forum who will gladly take whatever snow they can get, but they are not posting because they will get trolled for it. I've seen numerous posters respond to such posts with "really? you are happy with only two inches?!" like being happy with two inches is a crime. It's unfortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Mitch, any RGEM love yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This all seems like it will be quite similar to the Jan 11/12 event, except CT won't get 30 inches. Should be similar enough down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On the topic of disappointment...I would argue that the only real thing this year which has been disappointing is the number of "near misses" that "could have been". Several events have had good potential here even within a couple of days of their occurrence, only to fade in this area to a 1-2" amount. However, as frustrating as that is, it's been cold this winter which actually is part of the reason we've even had any events to follow around here. I, for one, would not trade that for a blowtorch over the next couple of months. We do still have about a week left in January, all of February, and into the first part of March in the DC area to realistically get at least one good storm. Not saying that will happen, but I'd much prefer to continue seeing an overall cold pattern that could support snow events throughout much or all of that time. I found it suckier to deal with a winter like 2001-02 or 2007-08, when there essentially were no real chances for anything here and the pattern was awful. Just my 2-cents to put a little more optimism in things, despite this upcoming event possibly being a disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Mitch, any RGEM love yet? too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 You're missing the point entirely. He's trying to quell the downers who are complaining for the sake of complaining, rather than giving actual evidence as to why something will or will not occur. Well, I would concur with that, except he said it in reply to my post, and I have given reasoning for my thinking more than once, and am not one who "complains for rthe sake of complaining." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 That's not the issue. Wes posting about how the storm looks bad from a meteorological standpoint is fine. Any met or experienced hobbyist doing this is OK. But how many worthless posts about how things suck do we need to see from weenies? You all literally suck the life and fun out of this board. You think things are bad, we get that. You think the storm will blow, great. I got nothing against folks expressing that. Say it once and move on. Can I get a mother-****ing amen? AMEN! :clap: :clap: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This all seems like it will be quite similar to the Jan 11/12 event, except CT won't get 30 inches. Should be similar enough down here. Yeah except this time maybe we'll get to watch the precip advect in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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