mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 this event is over...next....why do we keep tracking Miller Bs? short answer: there's been nothing else this "winter" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 You need to put "The trend is your friend" in your sig. This trend is your friend when it comes to making a forecast, but an enemy if you like snow. I think we need a 3-5 day warmup like we usually get periodically throughout the winter to break up this pattern. I'm just afraid once it does warm up, it may not cool back down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 short answer: there's been nothing else this "winter" That, and the average human is an optimist. "Things will be different this time." Does anyone keep track of the average amount of snowfall DC gets from Miller Bs? I am sure it is sobering and only buoyed by a few rogue ones that gave us decent snow (and which we selectively remember). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This trend is your friend when it comes to making a forecast, but an enemy if you like snow. I think we need a 3-5 day warmup like we usually get periodically throughout the winter to break up this pattern. I'm just afraid once it does warm up, it may not cool back down. I know people have different definitions of a pattern change so they may not agree with me. But as far as I am concerned we are already in one. The early part of winter featured a consistent strong -NAO but now we have the NAO swinging back and forth. This would argue for a very stormy pattern for the east with a lot of variability. I think someone on the east coast will have a very memorable 2 to 3 week period ahead until we probably see the strong -Nao come back. Not saying it will be good for the mid atlantic but I definitely like our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The Friday event is going to be like last weeks Miller B. We will get our 1-2 inches from the 850 not from the coastal storm. I am fine with that. We still have all of February left to get to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Per the NAM, its good to see the blues are back over PHL, NJ and NYC and not over us. #$@##%$! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 0z GFS trended north but the ensembles did not. 6z trended further north and the ensembles went with it, that is a lot more bothersome 6z NAM did trend north also just not as much GGEM/UKMET trended north Euro never had anything Unless I am missing something it's definitely becoming stacked against us, but I kinda saw this coming 3 days ago so Its not much of a disappointment to me. Still think DC area can squeak out 1" or so. Baltimore maybe 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 0z GFS trended north but the ensembles did not. 6z trended further north and the ensembles went with it, that is a lot more bothersome 6z NAM did trend north also just not as much GGEM/UKMET trended north Euro never had anything Unless I am missing something it's definitely becoming stacked against us, but I kinda saw this coming 3 days ago so Its not much of a disappointment to me. Still think DC area can squeak out 1" or so. Baltimore maybe 2. like I said... betting against fate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 NBC 4 said maybe an inch from this. I have had a little over 3 inches this winter total and it has been a joke. What do I have to do to buy a snowfall over an inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I grew up in South Jersey, and I don't remember there ever being so many legitimate snow threats in a given winter. My Dad - a weather geek in his own right - says it's all happening so easily that it's basically an afterthought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 NBC 4 said maybe an inch from this. I have had a little over 3 inches this winter total and it has been a joke. What do I have to do to buy a snowfall over an inch? Tell the Nina to go away. This is typical climo for us under these conditions. Last year was not the norm and the sooner people realize that we are not going to repeat it will make this season more understandable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This trend is your friend when it comes to making a forecast, but an enemy if you like snow. I think we need a 3-5 day warmup like we usually get periodically throughout the winter to break up this pattern. I'm just afraid once it does warm up, it may not cool back down. nice! i need to work on my golf game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Tell the Nina to go away. This is typical climo for us under these conditions. Last year was not the norm and the sooner people realize that we are not going to repeat it will make this season more understandable. Tell that to those south, east, and north of us. This Nina is jacked up given the blocking regime we're in, so I don't think you can just say "it's climo" and be done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Tell the Nina to go away. This is typical climo for us under these conditions. Last year was not the norm and the sooner people realize that we are not going to repeat it will make this season more understandable. forget that, given the solar situation and the PNA developing its not going to get warm anytime soon. The blocking has broken down so that is a change in the pattern and the next storm will probably take a more inland track which means more precip but probably a change to rain at some point. Forget any sustained warmup until at least mid february though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What part of: nagging nabobs of negativism-KEEP OUT did some of you not understand? Geesh if you are going to punt this system, then stop posting about it. The constant negativity is downright annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What part of: nagging nabobs of negativism-KEEP OUT did some of you not understand? if you are going to punt this system, then stop posting about it. The constant negativity is downright annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 That headline was when we thought we might get 3-5 inches. No more so let negativity reign. Ian wins and we all lose....again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Another one biting the dust. Cold/dry is in charge on this one. Expect warm/wet on the Hoffman storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Another one biting the dust. Cold/dry is in charge on this one. Expect warm/wet on the Hoffman storm. Hoffman storm will give us a good thump first before it warms to 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What part of: nagging nabobs of negativism-KEEP OUT did some of you not understand? Geesh if you are going to punt this system, then stop posting about it. The constant negativity is downright annoying. There would be no posts in here if that happened. What kind of board would this be if people were excluded from expressing their views if they differed from the snow weenies'? I would see no value in having the board. And are you sure it's the posts that are annoying/depressing and not the (soon to be) fact that the actual storm is screwing us again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 You all really suck. Being a realist is fine and totally acceptable. But how many times and how many different ways do you need to tell everybody things suck? GTFO of my thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 You all really suck. Being a realist is fine and totally acceptable. But how many times and how many different ways do you need to tell everybody things suck? GTFO of my thread Preach it, brotha! Also...12z NAM at 30 looks like its digging the s/w a bit more than 6z NAM or 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Agreed. It's like they have to make us feel the way they do so they aren't the only ones. You all really suck. Being a realist is fine and totally acceptable. But how many times and how many different ways do you need to tell everybody things suck? GTFO of my thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 There would be no posts in here if that happened. What kind of board would this be if people were excluded from expressing their views if they differed from the snow weenies'? I would see no value in having the board. And are you sure it's the posts that are annoying/depressing and not the (soon to be) fact that the actual storm is screwing us again? That's not the issue. Wes posting about how the storm looks bad from a meteorological standpoint is fine. Any met or experienced hobbyist doing this is OK. But how many worthless posts about how things suck do we need to see from weenies? You all literally suck the life and fun out of this board. You think things are bad, we get that. You think the storm will blow, great. I got nothing against folks expressing that. Say it once and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12z nam came in much further south. Wow can RIC get in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 You all really suck. Being a realist is fine and totally acceptable. But how many times and how many different ways do you need to tell everybody things suck? GTFO of my thread Thank you Randy. Being real about it is one thing - punting it every single model run because it only dumps 1 inch instead of 6 is rather annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 nam is getting drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 nam is getting drier In some places, but in others its the same as it was before. NM Ji, you were right... drier in most areas this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 There would be no posts in here if that happened. What kind of board would this be if people were excluded from expressing their views if they differed from the snow weenies'? I would see no value in having the board. And are you sure it's the posts that are annoying/depressing and not the (soon to be) fact that the actual storm is screwing us again? Yup 100% sure it's the posts and not the storm itself. Like Randy said, saying "man this sucks" once is fine... saying it sucks every model run is annoying. Snow is snow to me... 1 inch or 6 inches, I'm happy with whatever we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 This is pretty much a 1 to 3, 2 to 4 "storm". Lets just ride with that and accept it as maybe an appetizer for the storm after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.