MDstorm Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 <br />I would say having the .25 back to Columbus at that range is a good signal that this is probably not going OTS<br /><br /><br /><br />GGEM has your storm, but it's warm at this point. Certainly on the radar screen and worth following. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yes it sure is, i am actually getting excited thinking we may see a pretty big storm from this. I am curious to see what the EURO shows tonight. I am sure the GFS will phase the storm over the next few days. I have decided I am now rooting for whatever snow we can get, even if its only 1-2" at a time. This is because looking at the pattern, the massive PNA ridge developing, the fact were in a solar minimum, its not going to warm up anytime soon for any length. Since its going to be miserably cold probably until later February at least, it might as well snow, even if its only 1" at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I have decided I am now rooting for whatever snow we can get, even if its only 1-2" at a time. This is because looking at the pattern, the massive PNA ridge developing, the fact were in a solar minimum, its not going to warm up anytime soon for any length. Since its going to be miserably cold probably until later February at least, it might as well snow, even if its only 1" at a time. Wow hell must be freezing over if you are saying you will take 1-2", so if we get only 2" from your storm you will still be happy?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> GGEM has your storm, but it's warm at this point. Certainly on the radar screen and worth following. MDstorm at the end of the day rain is more a concern to me then OTS with that system. GFS is doing its normal monkey business in that regard. Still even though the Euro and GGEM do warm up, they show a nice thump snow first. I think that may be reality, a nice front end dump then dry slot as the warm air intrudes and lift is cut off. I do not see this as a massive storm right now but possibly a bigger event then we have had this year so far. Also, temps are really hard for models to pin down this far out. At this range models were indicating we would have temp problems with the Feb 5th blizzard last year. Get the H5 to track favorably first...then take our chances with temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Wow hell must be freezing over if you are saying you will take 1-2", so if we get only 2" from your storm you will still be happy?. maybe not "happy" but content, and I might as well root for whatever we can get since its not going to warm up, I have realized that. Looking at all the guidance there is no mild period coming anytime soon. Maybe I can build a decent snowpack with these minor events. My snow is encased in ice right now, that should protect it from the one day warmup tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> GGEM has your storm, but it's warm at this point. Certainly on the radar screen and worth following. MDstorm Where are you seeing the GGEM past 144, my site is stuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> GGEM has your storm, but it's warm at this point. Certainly on the radar screen and worth following. MDstorm Where are you seeing the GGEM past 144, my site is stuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 euro anybody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like we only get .1 QPF from the EURO for Thursday night storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 euro anybody? Yeah it looks like it stinks for us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Euro liquid BWI: .05 IAD: .02 DCA: .01 sorry thats not a joke good news is the euro has been horrible this year, watch it finally be right this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 even up here, Westminster is only .08 Looks like the Euro is a total non event with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Euro liquid BWI: .05 IAD: .02 DCA: .01 sorry thats not a joke good news is the euro has been horrible this year, watch it finally be right this time. Even you will be pissed with 1/2" from this storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 even up here, Westminster is only .08 Looks like the Euro is a total non event with this do u believe it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 do u believe it? Do I think is right with .01 for DC? probably not I never thought this had much potential to be more then a low end event. I am still sticking wtih my 1-4" prediction from 2 days ago. Max if everything goes right would be 3-6" probably. Right now the Euro is the outlier, and its been horrible lately, it totally messed up the ice storm last night and has been swinging wildly lately. Everything else seems to fall into the same general idea from 1-4" for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 SREF not good, trended north, has the .25 up near the PA line now, last run was down near DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 SREF not good, trended north, has the .25 up near the PA line now, last run was down near DC. NAm is decent for our 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Nam has nice uvvs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The 6z NAM is decent, once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 nam is in line with what I have thought all alone quick burst of snow as the front crosses the area and the low develops 1-3 for DC 2-4 for Baltimore north This is worth tracking but its likely to be low end event, only way for more would be on the 1 in 100 chance the low really bombs out fast along the coast and even then we would only be able to add a few inches at most to the totals, this will be really trucking in and out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 NAm is decent for our 1-3 I hope I get more than you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 06Z Nam is close for a nice storm for the northern sections of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 06Z GFS is Drier for our area. Northern energy doesn't dig like the NAM does. Off run of the GFS so lets throw it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 nam is in line with what I have thought all alone quick burst of snow as the front crosses the area and the low develops 1-3 for DC 2-4 for Baltimore north This is worth tracking but its likely to be low end event, only way for more would be on the 1 in 100 chance the low really bombs out fast along the coast and even then we would only be able to add a few inches at most to the totals, this will be really trucking in and out. its slipping away it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 its slipping away it seems dont jump off the bridge yet lol because of a 06z gfs run, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 dont jump off the bridge yet lol because of a 06z gfs run, no, its the trend on the models to lower qpf add to that the Euro and it ain't looking good the mean pattern will find a way to maintain itself...its like betting against fate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 its slipping away it seems After looking over the GFS run I think I would lean towards the NAM with it's northern energy diving deeper with better potential for a nice storm. After looking over the whole GFS run it just doesn't look right to me as it progresses deeper into the run. Will wait to see the GEFS to see if it follows the OP though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 no, its the trend on the models to lower qpf add to that the Euro and it ain't looking good the mean pattern will find a way to maintain itself...its like betting against fate Kind of what I've been saying all along. Until there is a significant change in the pattern, why would anyone be bullish on a storm, especially when there is consistently a model or two showing a screwjob? We've been given a blueprint; let's use it, not ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Kind of what I've been saying all along. Until there is a significant change in the pattern, why would anyone be bullish on a storm, especially when there is consistently a model or two showing a screwjob? We've been given a blueprint; let's use it, not ignore it. You need to put "The trend is your friend" in your sig. Or "History repeats its self" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 this event is over...next....why do we keep tracking Miller Bs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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