PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 We're gonna use that one tonight? I am just getting started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The Yoda ice event is over-performing. The worm has turned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm not sure what to make of the NAM tonight. I wasn't expecting a rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 We're gonna use that one tonight? For the NAM, yes. For the Euro we still have to use "holding energy back in the SW." Not sure what we can use for the GFS/GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 For the NAM, yes. For the Euro we still have to use "holding energy back in the SW." Not sure what we can use for the GFS/GGEM. Can't look at the GFS past 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I just hope the NAM isn't sniffing something out the others have missed just sayin' we'll know something tonight I suppose, or at least have an inkling on whether NAM is onto something EDIT: certainly would signal a patter change somewhat, but going the wrong way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I just hope the NAM isn't sniffing something out the others have missed just sayin' we'll know something tonight I suppose, or at least have an inkling on whether NAM is onto something At least the screwjob could look a little different this time around. Off to the west will get it. Let's spread the wealth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I just hope the NAM isn't sniffing something out the others have missed just sayin' we'll know something tonight I suppose, or at least have an inkling on whether NAM is onto something EDIT: certainly would signal a patter change somewhat, but going the wrong way I'll take the NAM as a warm/north outlier. I bet the GFS will be weak and east again. A compromise would work nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Can't look at the GFS past 72 hours. Yeah, that's good. Another possibility is "look at the ensembles!" since regardless of what the OP shows we are bound to have at least half, if not more, of the individual ensemble members giving us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yeah, that's good. Another possibility is "look at the ensembles!" since regardless of what the OP shows we are bound to have at least half, if not more, of the individual ensemble members giving us snow. Oh yeah exactly... "Ensembles still give support for snow." Uhh... it's just 2 of the members. "Quit being a weenie." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yeah, that's good. Another possibility is "look at the ensembles!" since regardless of what the OP shows we are bound to have at least half, if not more, of the individual ensemble members giving us snow. How about, seasonal trend? Phasing and trough digging have occurred later/more easterly than models earlier showed. We should be golden by game time. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I am partial to "Wait til all the players are on-shore" and "Bad initialization" as well as "south and east bias" for GFS excuses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 48hr RGEM has a 999 Low on the TX/New Mexico boarder (yikes!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Ji must be getting to JB, I have never seen him be so specific about the fact that he thinks DC will be too far south and NOT get significant snow from this storm. For those just bashing him, if you know JB code it was easy to see he didn't really think we would do well with the last storm either. Just wish he would say when he thinks DC will get a big snow instead of simply pointing out each time that we wont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Ji must be getting to JB, I have never seen him be so specific about the fact that he thinks DC will be too far south and NOT get significant snow from this storm. For those just bashing him, if you know JB code it was easy to see he didn't really think we would do well with the last storm either. Just wish he would say when he thinks DC will get a big snow instead of simply pointing out each time that we wont. just read that its a change from what he had been saying and just as he says it, GFS is looking much flatter at 48 hrs than NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 gfs is wetter at 84 hr 996 low east of del. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS looks a lot like 18Z I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 just read that its a change from what he had been saying and just as he says it, GFS is looking much flatter at 48 hrs than NAM I will wait for all the 0z guidance before jumping ship but again I do not like how this is becoming northern branch dominated again. Northern branch driven events are not always bad for this area if the northern branch digs enough, but this is rare in a nina to get the jet to buckle enough for that. We need a storm to be more southern branch driven and that is again looking to be trending the wrong way here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I will wait for all the 0z guidance before jumping ship but again I do not like how this is becoming northern branch dominated again. Northern branch driven events are not always bad for this area if the northern branch digs enough, but this is rare in a nina to get the jet to buckle enough for that. We need a storm to be more southern branch driven and that is again looking to be trending the wrong way here. forget it this year just forget it what we've seen is what we'll get we just have to hope for a few more scraps than what we've been dealt so far this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Surprised no talk about the GFS. Shows a nice snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS looks a lot like 18Z I'll take it Yeah, not too shabby. Someone get JB some adderall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I dunno. I don't really see a storm on the GFS. It just looks like a cold front passage. No closed 850 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS looks a lot like 18Z I'll take it GFS is ok but the problem is the trend, its moving towards more amplified but doing it with the northern brach. Its slowly stepping towards a NAM type solution. GFS is kinda maxed out right now, without there being more blocking and with it being a northern branch system, unless we get phasing in the exact right spot, it can not be more then a low end event or else its rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS is ok but the problem is the trend, its moving towards more amplified but doing it with the northern brach. Its slowly stepping towards a NAM type solution. GFS is kinda maxed out right now, without there being more blocking and with it being a northern branch system, unless we get phasing in the exact right spot, it can not be more then a low end event or else its rain. I'll choose not to over think it right now I know the pattern this year and will look to see if the atmosphere has done any tweaking to it for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS is ok but the problem is the trend, its moving towards more amplified but doing it with the northern brach. Its slowly stepping towards a NAM type solution. GFS is kinda maxed out right now, without there being more blocking and with it being a northern branch system, unless we get phasing in the exact right spot, it can not be more then a low end event or else its rain. This is a good winter for you. All sorts of things going wrong. Last winter you were off your game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'll choose not to over think it right now I know the pattern this year and will look to see if the atmosphere has done any tweaking to it for this event true... it could change, its really amazing to me that no matter what the storm looks like at 5 days out, as soon as we get to about day 4 on in they evolve and change into what the seasonal pattern dictates. This system appears to be doing the same right now. it really comes down to one thing, systems will be northern branch dominated, and the northern branch will not dig south enough, and the H5 vort will take a path just to our north. All that equals the same result everytime, close but painfully left out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This is a good winter for you. All sorts of things going wrong. Last winter you were off your game. I wish things would change so I can be "wrong" again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Shoot, I'd take the GFS verbatim right now. And be thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Shoot, I'd take the GFS verbatim right now. And be thrilled. me-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I like the looks of this so far a little diff than what we've seen so far this year...so far at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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