mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 much better trajectory on precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 850 temps are fairly cold on NAM at 30 hrs I swear it may be too far south (but maybe I'm just paranoid after all these years around here) http://www.nco.ncep....am_850_030l.gif Nah, looks good. Looks like it's going to be juicy again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks to be south to me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 21z SREF Temp profiles look the same but less precip south of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 its flatter thats for sure, less amped. Trade off...less chance of mixing but less precip if that carries out through the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 its flatter thats for sure, less amped. Trade off...less chance of mixing but less precip if that carries out through the run. I was just gonna' post that no surprise, however, it trends toward the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 its organizing better at 42 hours but a little south of 18z. I like where this is heading so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 almost looks like its gonna' phase, and phase far enough south for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 much colder at 48 hrs but its so strung out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 much colder at 48 hrs but its so strung out yea it looks a lot like the GFS now actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 yea it looks a lot like the GFS now actually I like it further south we'll be fine this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It's certainly an all snow solution and probably will still be wetter than the gfs as its the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It's certainly an all snow solution and probably will still be wetter than the gfs as its the nam. we might actually have model agreement here for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 and its coming east and should be getting wetter...I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 it might not be a lot dryer but it is definitely colder and a bit south, this could be a very good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 it might not be a lot dryer but it is definitely colder and a bit south, this could be a very good run. I'm thinking it goes ots and misses NE for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Book it. (Before anyone jumps on me, I'm joking... but this website isn't...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 and its coming east and should be getting wetter...I hope By the sim radar, you would be correct, I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm thinking it goes ots and misses NE for the most part full coverage at 60 hrs w / light snow across va and md....off the coast a bit more than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 through 60 hrs BWI-.27" DCA-.27 IAD-.30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 and its coming east and should be getting wetter...I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 through 60 hrs BWI-.27" DCA-.27 IAD-.30 BWI 850's start at -6.5C and drop at 60 hrs to -7.7C (good ratios I would think) more snow to fall at BWI it would seem after 60 hrs, but probably not much...its moving along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 pretty good match with the vorts in question on gfs/nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 BOS goes from around 1.24" qpf on 18Z run to probably around .1-.2" at best gotta' love the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 BOS goes from around 1.24" qpf on 18Z run to probably around .1-.2" at best gotta' love the NAM 500 suggests a bigger hit up there.. the nam is crappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 BOS goes from around 1.24" qpf on 18Z run to probably around .1-.2" at best gotta' love the NAM bos has gotten enough lol our turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 We should feel good right now. We haven't this winter. The past storms always had us hopeful, and let us down. The big storm opportunities that is. This could easily be our biggest this season. 4 inches would be awesome. This one seems to improve every run. It sure would be nice to have a nice snow cover to go along with the weekend cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It does look very similar to the 18Z gfs. I'm not waiting around for the 00Z gfs. I'd be happy to see this run verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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