Quasievil Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 But does doing that lead you to being more disappointed if it trends drier and we end up with T-1"? Disappointed sure but it would still mean more nina bs. Same old same old this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Mattison out and Chuck Pagano in as new Ravens DEF COORD... if Cam goes.. count on hell freezing over... expecting that this will bring about more than 3 inches! Seriously? I guess maybe only rushing 3 guys towards the end of the game would lead to that. Dummy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 That looks good. Here is 60 btw The operational run is one of the worst, if not the worst, looking runs out of the ensembles + operational. That's looking at surface and 850. It's hard not to feel pretty good about this right now. I'm hoping for 3" inches to take first place on my list for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeedaSnowday Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Seriously? I guess maybe only rushing 3 guys towards the end of the game would lead to that. Dummy. Yup seriously.. Mattison heading to a more snowy area at Univ Mich.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I agree with the surface winds but SW-NE is definitely not the worst trajectory for our location. Some of this has to do with the source region of the moisture and the orientation of the mountains plays a role. Orographics are most enhanced with the steepness and height of the vertical rise and perpendicular flow is by far the the most efficient. I lived in the Rockies for 7 years and it took me 5 to really understand it. After watching 100's of forcasts bust for our county, I studied all the factors that went into our biggest snows and was able to predict over performers and underperformers pretty easily. With that being said, I don't think we'll have a SW surface winds. It would be a rainstorm. Almost all of our 2-4 & 3-5 overrunning events have a SW-NE trajectory. You just echoed my comments above. As someone who also grew up in the mountains, down there in SWVA, the one thing I do understand pretty well is the orographic effect on either enhancing precip or killing it. I'm with you on this one. Give me a precip sheild sw to ne, and a ne wind, and I'll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Would just like to see a winter storm warning sometime this year. Dec. 26 there was a wsw but that busted, guess just tired of one inch here one inch there 'storms'. This one Thursday/ Friday will probably be a wwa criteria snowfall True, but not for York County. Only for MD. We have not had a warning just above the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Actually, the only 5000 foot peaks in Virginia are right on the NC border. If you look at the map, you'll see them. Green indicates about 4000 feet. Notice the direction that the mountains run. Also notice that between the NC border and about up to the lat of Snowshoe most of the mountains are between1500 and 3500 feet. I disagree with you about the precip direction. Movement parallel to those mountains doesn't shred it like due west or NW to SE does. I do agree with you about the surface wind. West to NW winds are death, at least in my area. SW winds bring in warmth. The wind from the east and northeast is the best, again, for me over here. Yesterday, the initial precip for my area was from sw to ne. That precip didn't make it to the ground for a long time, but it did saturate the atmosphere. When I went outside about 6 o'clock and the wind direction was from the NE, I knew we were good to go. The precip from the SW moistened us up, then when the backbuilding from the east started, we stayed in steady snow for about 6 hours. I am VERY familiar with the topography of VA and WV. Snowshow is at 4,600 feet so not sure what you mean about the mtns in that area being below 3500. The spine of the Apps averages above 4000 feet all the way north of Snowshoe. Mount Rogers is well over 5000 ft and is not right on the NC border, and besides I said "in southwest VA". That would qualify. A due west wind comes off mountains that are on average about 2500 feet. A SW wind comes off mountains that average about 4000 feet. It does make a difference. When I was at PSU we would look out for a SW wind off the Allegheny Front that would just kill snowfall in Happy Valley, much more so then a west to east wind. Your point about the precip coming from the SW misses the point though, it makes no difference what direction the precip moves in from. Its the direction of the wind at the lower levels near the surface, not the direction the precip is moving in that makes the difference for the most part. Its better not to have it move over the mtns because they can tend to dry out the air some, but if the flow here is not from over the mtns at the surface it doesn't really matter that much. The precip is moving from the SW but the wind at the surface is NOT out of the SW. Any wind from a westerly direction is bad because its down sloping to some extent but a SW wind is by far the worst for 2 factors, it is down sloping the most, and it is out of the south and tends to bring in warm air also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Snowshoe is 4848'..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I agree with the surface winds but SW-NE is definitely not the worst trajectory for our location. Some of this has to do with the source region of the moisture and the orientation of the mountains plays a role. Orographics are most enhanced with the steepness and height of the vertical rise and perpendicular flow is by far the the most efficient. I lived in the Rockies for 7 years and it took me 5 to really understand it. After watching 100's of forcasts bust for our county, I studied all the factors that went into our biggest snows and was able to predict over performers and underperformers pretty easily. With that being said, I don't think we'll have a SW surface winds. It would be a rainstorm. Almost all of our 2-4 & 3-5 overrunning events have a SW-NE trajectory. I feel like there is some wall between what I am saying and what people are hearing. I am talking about the SURFACE winds, not the trajectory of the precip. It has nothing to do with each other. The precip trajectory does not matter at all. The winds at the surface are what is crossing the mtns. You have to look at the surface winds to see if you have a down sloping wind, NOT the precip sheild or how the precip is moving. As for your comment about "upslope" snows in the rockies you are 100 percent correct, a perpendicular wind is best for creating lift and precip. As for the downsloping component its not as clear cut. Yes a perpendicular wind is worse, but adding the extra 2000 feet from the mtns off a SW wind coming off the Skylind drive area, versus a WNW wind coming off lower terrain offsets. Add in the warming effect of a SW wind and over the years a SW wind is much worse then a W or NW wind in this area. All are bad, but I have never seen a significant snow with a SW surface wind. I am also applying 3 years of following clippers in PA. Dr. Neese told us one time to look at the surface winds and make sure the wind flow was not SW to NE off the spine of the apps before forecasting much snow from a clipper. It worked without fail when at State College, a west wind was bad, but a SW wind was a total destroyer of precip as it came off the mtns. It would totally dry up every time coming across the eastern divide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Snowshoe is 4848'..... thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Ok, no more orographic discussion. We are all on the same page and I mis-interpreted psuhoffman's comments about SW-NE being the worst. So, we all agree the SW-NE trajectory of the precip combined w/ cold surface temps and aloft and having N-E winds = 2-4" on Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I should clarify this since I think many are confusing precip movement with winds... if we are talking the worst trajectory for precip to come from it is by far the west. This is because if precip is moving in from the west or northwest odds are the surface low associated with it is coming from the west also, this means the winds in front of it are out of the southwest as it approaches. So the worst trajectory for precip is definitely west to east or nw to se, because it creates the SW to NE surface winds. When precip is coming from the sw to ne it usually means the surface low is moving to our south and east and thus as the precip moves in we have a wind trajectory out of the east at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 If accurate, great storm track today on the models for the region... across southern VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insanegrenade Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 So is this a great storm track meaning....good snow for us or is this a 1-3 incher? How can it be a great track if all we get is 1-3 inches. That makes no sense. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I am VERY familiar with the topography of VA and WV. Snowshow is at 4,600 feet so not sure what you mean about the mtns in that area being below 3500. The spine of the Apps averages above 4000 feet all the way north of Snowshoe. Mount Rogers is well over 5000 ft and is not right on the NC border, and besides I said "in southwest VA". That would qualify. A due west wind comes off mountains that are on average about 2500 feet. A SW wind comes off mountains that average about 4000 feet. It does make a difference. When I was at PSU we would look out for a SW wind off the Allegheny Front that would just kill snowfall in Happy Valley, much more so then a west to east wind. Your point about the precip coming from the SW misses the point though, it makes no difference what direction the precip moves in from. Its the direction of the wind at the lower levels near the surface, not the direction the precip is moving in that makes the difference for the most part. Its better not to have it move over the mtns because they can tend to dry out the air some, but if the flow here is not from over the mtns at the surface it doesn't really matter that much. The precip is moving from the SW but the wind at the surface is NOT out of the SW. Any wind from a westerly direction is bad because its down sloping to some extent but a SW wind is by far the worst for 2 factors, it is down sloping the most, and it is out of the south and tends to bring in warm air also. I'll address the bolded in order. 1. I said from the NC border up to about the latitude of snowshoe. The mountains to the south and north of that stretch are much higher. This stretch is an opening of sorts. 2. Mount Rogers is over 5700 feet. Mount Rogers is 0.07 degrees latitude north of the VA-NC border. Since latitude lines are under 70 miles apart, that yields a distance of 4.9 miles. I don't know if that qualifies as right on the border to you or not. I grew up there. You might be familiar with the topography of SWVA, but I'm more familiar. 3. A due west wind comes off mountains that are 2500 feet for YOUR location, not mine. Due west from me are the 4000 foot mountains you mentioned north of Snowshoe. I agree with you on the rest. I didn't say I wanted a SW wind. I said I like to see precip moving in from that direction. I think the east to ne wind works best for me here. However, a sw wind may very well be a downslope wind for State College, but it is a long way to my southwest before you encounter any mountains with any real size to them. I do agree about the warm air. Listen, I'm not arguing with you here. You're one of the best here, and you certainly know a heck of alot more about weather than me. I've just been here in my area long enough to know when I can count on precip and when I can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 So is this a great storm track meaning....good snow for us or is this a 1-3 incher? How can it be a great track if all we get is 1-3 inches. That makes no sense. Thanks A storm track across southern virginia is climo for snow in the area, and reduces the risk of mixing/changeover. It always was only going to be a light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 So is this a great storm track meaning....good snow for us or is this a 1-3 incher? How can it be a great track if all we get is 1-3 inches. That makes no sense. Thanks Great track given the other options.....warm rain or snow hole. All things equal this winter, the models are showing a GREAT track. The amount of moisture on the other hand...... Can't have it all come together at once this winter........yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 3. A due west wind comes off mountains that are 2500 feet for YOUR location, not mine. Due west from me are the 4000 foot mountains you mentioned north of Snowshoe. My comment was directed towards the DC/BWI metro area. You are right, your region has different meso scale climo. I did not look at your specific location, sometimes I forget we have people from central and southern VA in this thread. My bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Great track given the other options.....warm rain or snow hole. All things equal this winter, the models are showing a GREAT track. The amount of moisture on the other hand...... Can't have it all come together at once this winter........yet Too early to get nailed into qpf yet anyway. It's going to precipitate on Thursday night. Only thing we can really bank on yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 My comment was directed towards the DC/BWI metro area. You are right, your region has different meso scale climo. I did not look at your specific location, sometimes I forget we have people from central and southern VA in this thread. My bad Not at all. Everytime you post, I learn something. Back on topic, I really am encouraged by the modeling for Friday. I just hope we don't get any curveballs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 If accurate, great storm track today on the models for the region... across southern VA Great track, but way too fast, and ensembles are all over the place. I'm just hoping for 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Not at all. Everytime you post, I learn something. Back on topic, I really am encouraged by the modeling for Friday. I just hope we don't get any curveballs. Curveballs or the X factor seem to have less of a chance at sending another screwjob on this one. Decent agreement on a track south of our area combined with not having to freak out about the perfect phase or transfer happening far enough south. This time we have a good front end shot before all of complicated stuff happens. Not going to worry about temps. At least not in my area. Plus, the cold angle is good and the sun damming won't happen because it is after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Plus, the cold angle is good and the sun damming won't happen because it is after dark. I hate it when the sun starts cussing at me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Not at all. Everytime you post, I learn something. Back on topic, I really am encouraged by the modeling for Friday. I just hope we don't get any curveballs. Why does the LWX forecast call for no accumulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Why does the LWX forecast call for no accumulation? For Friday? How about .... becuz it's only Tuesday ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 we talkin' NAM here? 24 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Off to a good start for most of VA on the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 30 hr surface on NCEP has no map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 30 hr surface on NCEP has no map 850 temps are fairly cold on NAM at 30 hrs I swear it may be too far south (but maybe I'm just paranoid after all these years around here) http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_850_030l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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