PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 im riding the gfs till it throws me off. but we're in a tough spot still. could trend bad. There is OK consistency right now beyond temp and QPF differences. I feel good about some snow in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 There is OK consistency right now beyond temp and QPF differences. I feel good about some snow in the area. I agree mostly. You are in a better spot than me but that's like saying miller bs usually screw us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 <gasp> the snow hole.... it just wouldnt do that to us again would it?? Swiscaster Corollary #4: If a model shows a snowhole/cutoff line/changeover line within 75 miles of DC, it will envelop us in actuality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 just to show you how wacked the NAM is through 5PM, BOS qpf from last night and today is .56" per this link: http://www.srh.noaa....story/KBOS.html its not over, but looks to be close: http://radar.weather...theast_loop.php here's NAM total 24 hrs qpf from a recent as last night's 0Z run; now it is through 6Z tonight, but still: http://www.nco.ncep....am_p24_030l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I agree mostly. You are in a better spot than me but that's like saying miller bs usually screw us. I know I said 3 inches +- 2, but if I had to make a forecast I'd go for 2 for you and 4 for me. GFS would support that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I know I said 3 inches +- 2, but if I had to make a forecast I'd go for 2 for you and 4 for me. GFS would support that. About time you had some Nads and called something for the pre Nads storm. Bravo Phin . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I know I said 3 inches +- 2, but if I had to make a forecast I'd go for 2 for you and 4 for me. GFS would support that. i'd stay cautious for now... 1-3" area wide with better chances for more near you. the nam is bunk imo. but even riding the gfs you gotta wonder if it will dry a little heading into game time. those mountains are a pain in the arse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i'd stay cautious for now... 1-3" area wide with better chances for more near you. the nam is bunk imo. but even riding the gfs you gotta wonder if it will dry a little heading into game time. those mountains are a pain in the arse. Never hurts to be conservative, with the knowledge that more could be in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Never hurts to be conservative, with the knowledge that more could be in store. yeah.. or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 btw your sig is giant and annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i'd stay cautious for now... 1-3" area wide with better chances for more near you. the nam is bunk imo. but even riding the gfs you gotta wonder if it will dry a little heading into game time. those mountains are a pain in the arse. That sounds like a blend of GFS and Euro. We'll have to see what the Euro does, although with the GFS being consistent I'm not sure how much it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i'd stay cautious for now... 1-3" area wide with better chances for more near you. the nam is bunk imo. but even riding the gfs you gotta wonder if it will dry a little heading into game time. those mountains are a pain in the arse. 0 to a half-inch areawide. 1-2" NE of Charm City. Foot for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i'd stay cautious for now... 1-3" area wide with better chances for more near you. the nam is bunk imo. but even riding the gfs you gotta wonder if it will dry a little heading into game time. those mountains are a pain in the arse. I was thinking that the mountains won't be much of an issue. The precip having a SW-NE trajectory usually doesn't wring things out like W-E and NW-SE. I don't have the knowledge to post indepth details about model runs but I'm not bad at understanding the bigger and more obvious features. The precip ahead of the low will run from near the gulf coast, through the TN valley, and advect up through Central VA and our backyard right? Or am I completely out of whack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 That sounds like a blend of GFS and Euro. We'll have to see what the Euro does, although with the GFS being consistent I'm not sure how much it matters. the euro has not been itself lately but it's not that far off the gfs. close enough to think it could be better though it did moisten up a bit in this area at 12z obviously. im pretty sure once we fully throw it out it will go on a roll though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Swiscaster Corollary #4: If a model shows a snowhole/cutoff line/changeover line within 75 miles of DC, it will envelop us in actuality. Do you ever offer anything of value? Ever? At this point, I'd settle for anything based on actual science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 In all fairness to Swiscaster he would be right with a wound up storm. This does not get wound up until its pretty far N/E so mixing may not be as big of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Do you ever offer anything of value? Ever? At this point, I'd settle for anything based on actual science. Sometimes "science" fails and trends win. Based on the results if this winter, I go with trends until I'm shown otherwise. Can't say it is stupid either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 In all fairness to Swiscaster he would be right with a wound up storm. This does not get wound up until its pretty far N/E so mixing may not be as big of an issue. Thanks, skins--a defender. I think people are too hung up on proving a point based on some in-depth technical atmospheric or model analysis. There is a lot to be said for pattern recognition and climatology. These storms typically screw us, and have screwed us 3 straight times, so I see no reason to think differently, and I don't need a met degree to say so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i'd stay cautious for now... 1-3" area wide with better chances for more near you. the nam is bunk imo. but even riding the gfs you gotta wonder if it will dry a little heading into game time. those mountains are a pain in the arse. Going off of the sim radar of the NAM, it seems the precip "makes the turn" earlier with this one and the precip is moving more SW to NE. This is usually more reliable for crossing the mnts. Do you agree or do you see something that I'm missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 btw your sig is giant and annoying 99% are annoying. Do what I do and turn them all off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Going off of the sim radar of the NAM, it seems the precip "makes the turn" earlier with this one and the precip is moving more SW to NE. This is usually more reliable for crossing the mnts. Do you agree or do you see something that I'm missing? could be.. two of you have mentioned it. i know we have a thick area of high terrain just west so due west/east is probably among the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 could be.. two of you have mentioned it. i know we have a thick area of high terrain just west so due west/east is probably among the worst. Actually the worst trajectory for us is SW to NE because that takes the flow right over the 5,000 + mtns down in Southwest VA. However, it doesn't matter what direction the precip is moving from, its the direction of the wind flow at the surface that matters the most. Surface winds (according to the GFS) are out of the ESE initially then turn NE and finally N as the precip moves through. It would be very hard to get much precip if winds were out of the SW here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Would just like to see a winter storm warning sometime this year. Dec. 26 there was a wsw but that busted, guess just tired of one inch here one inch there 'storms'. This one Thursday/ Friday will probably be a wwa criteria snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Thanks, skins--a defender. I think people are too hung up on proving a point based on some in-depth technical atmospheric or model analysis. There is a lot to be said for pattern recognition and climatology. These storms typically screw us, and have screwed us 3 straight times, so I see no reason to think differently, and I don't need a met degree to say so. Agree but am hoping this overperformer from yesterday has changed things. Note I said hoping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Agree but am hoping this overperformer from yesterday has changed things. Note I said hoping... But does doing that lead you to being more disappointed if it trends drier and we end up with T-1"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeedaSnowday Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Mattison out and Chuck Pagano in as new Ravens DEF COORD... if Cam goes.. count on hell freezing over... expecting that this will bring about more than 3 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Actually the worst trajectory for us is SW to NE because that takes the flow right over the 5,000 + mtns down in Southwest VA. However, it doesn't matter what direction the precip is moving from, its the direction of the wind flow at the surface that matters the most. Surface winds (according to the GFS) are out of the ESE initially then turn NE and finally N as the precip moves through. It would be very hard to get much precip if winds were out of the SW here. Actually, the only 5000 foot peaks in Virginia are right on the NC border. If you look at the map, you'll see them. Green indicates about 4000 feet. Notice the direction that the mountains run. Also notice that between the NC border and about up to the lat of Snowshoe most of the mountains are between1500 and 3500 feet. I disagree with you about the precip direction. Movement parallel to those mountains doesn't shred it like due west or NW to SE does. I do agree with you about the surface wind. West to NW winds are death, at least in my area. SW winds bring in warmth. The wind from the east and northeast is the best, again, for me over here. Yesterday, the initial precip for my area was from sw to ne. That precip didn't make it to the ground for a long time, but it did saturate the atmosphere. When I went outside about 6 o'clock and the wind direction was from the NE, I knew we were good to go. The precip from the SW moistened us up, then when the backbuilding from the east started, we stayed in steady snow for about 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 That looks good. Here is 60 btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Actually the worst trajectory for us is SW to NE because that takes the flow right over the 5,000 + mtns down in Southwest VA. However, it doesn't matter what direction the precip is moving from, its the direction of the wind flow at the surface that matters the most. Surface winds (according to the GFS) are out of the ESE initially then turn NE and finally N as the precip moves through. It would be very hard to get much precip if winds were out of the SW here. I agree with the surface winds but SW-NE is definitely not the worst trajectory for our location. Some of this has to do with the source region of the moisture and the orientation of the mountains plays a role. Orographics are most enhanced with the steepness and height of the vertical rise and perpendicular flow is by far the the most efficient. I lived in the Rockies for 7 years and it took me 5 to really understand it. After watching 100's of forcasts bust for our county, I studied all the factors that went into our biggest snows and was able to predict over performers and underperformers pretty easily. With that being said, I don't think we'll have a SW surface winds. It would be a rainstorm. Almost all of our 2-4 & 3-5 overrunning events have a SW-NE trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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