PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Rain/snow line will be wicked and close on the NAM. Folks just on the all snow side will see a serious thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/wwd_24hr_probs_zr.php http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/wwd_24hr_probs_sn.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I am not sure why were excited about a 1-3 inch event. We have had several of those already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I am not sure why were excited about a 1-3 inch event. We have had several of those already You have multiple personalities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I am not sure why were excited about a 1-3 inch event. We have had several of those already there's blues on teh map! blues!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The QPF on the soundings and on the QPF NCEP maps aren't matching up for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep....hr_probs_zr.php http://www.hpc.ncep....hr_probs_sn.php Seasonal trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Rain/snow line will be wicked and close on the NAM. Folks just on the all snow side will see a serious thump. It is very close but the sounding even have me as snow but they have such a deep isothermal layer right at freezing that it would take very little to change it. weaken the lifting a little and it's likely that a warm layer would show up, shift the surface low north a little, the same deal. The nam also probably is overdoing the qpf over our area as it often does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 nam looks great for boston! Looks good here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 there's blues on teh map! blues!! the blues really jazzes it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The QPF on the soundings and on the QPF NCEP maps aren't matching up for me... Consistency is for suckers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks good here as well. yeah but here it is partly fantasy i'd actually rather be nw of boston if this is right http://www.nco.ncep....am_500_078m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Consistency is for suckers. PHL is clearly in the dark blue on the precip maps... but this says 0.22 QPF http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KPHL.txt DCA is clearly around 0.5 QPF... but this says 0.27 http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KDCA.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 yeah but here it is partly fantasy i'd actually rather be nw of boston if this is right http://www.nco.ncep....am_500_078m.gif No doubt. I am still feeling a 3 inch event plus or minus two inches based on how things trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 PHL is clearly in the dark blue on the precip maps... but this says 0.22 QPF http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KPHL.txt DCA is clearly around 0.5 QPF... but this says 0.27 http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KDCA.txt who cares? i mean i know people do but they shouldnt need to know down the .01 what they are getting on a model that's probably at least half wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 PHL is clearly in the dark blue on the precip maps... but this says 0.22 QPF http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KPHL.txt DCA is clearly around 0.5 QPF... but this says 0.27 http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KDCA.txt The precip is for 3 hrs but the increments are in 6 hours. So its missing half of every increment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 No doubt. I am still feeling a 3 inch event plus or minus two inches based on how things trend. Wow bold call 1-5" . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 who cares? i mean i know people do but they shouldnt need to know down the .01 what they are getting on a model that's probably at least half wrong. You are going to lose your snow privileges good sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 who cares? i mean i know people do but they shouldnt need to know down the .01 what they are getting on a model that's probably at least half wrong. Personally I would find it helpful to know why the model is doubling the totals reported from it's own soundings on it's precip maps. Perhaps it's a glitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Wow bold call 1-5" . You read it wrong. My call is for 3 inches but I might tweak it in a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I call 1" to 6". Maybe I'll change it in a couple days, as we get closer to Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The precip is for 3 hrs but the increments are in 6 hours. So its missing half of every increment. This. who cares? i mean i know people do but they shouldnt need to know down the .01 what they are getting on a model that's probably at least half wrong. And this. Honestly, the QPF fetish around here is rather off-putting. Concentrate on the dynamics of the system rather than the finite details up until nowcast time. Notable trends are okay, but otherwise it should really be kept to a minimum. (is this a control freak post or an IMHO post?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 im going to 12-18 nw of boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This. And this. Honestly, the QPF fetish around here is rather off-putting. Concentrate on the dynamics of the system rather than the finite details up until nowcast time. Notable trends are okay, but otherwise it should really be kept to a minimum. (is this a control freak post or an IMHO post?) yoda has a qpf fetish for sure. he was reporting numbers to the thousandth yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Accuwx MOS has BWI at .45" qpf from 18Z NAM DCA-.43" IAD-.30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Accuwx MOS has BWI at .45" qpf from 18Z NAM DCA-.43" IAD-.30" MTN-.51" Annapolis-.55" with some rain/sleet mix DCA may have a bit of problems with mix too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 MTN-.51" Annapolis-.55" with some rain/sleet mix DCA may have a bit of problems with mix too Omega/dynamics might be able to overcome that with the strong UVV's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Omega/dynamics might be able to overcome that with the strong UVV's... hurtyhurtz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 hurtyhurtz. Shhh... Just saying what the h7 maps tell me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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