yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 FWIW.... 12 hr QPF hr 60-72. 850s are dropping as it snows as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It looks like if we're going to get warning criteria snows, we may have to thread the needle with temps...Glad Im further north than you DC and VA folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Reasonable. After last year, I simply can't get excited unless we get 8" or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 <-- Patiently waiting until we're within 48h to discuss RaSn line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Man...if we could just dig that vort a little further south and get in on some of the redevelopment snows... But alas, I dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It looks like if we're going to get warning criteria snows, we may have to thread the needle with temps...Glad Im further north than you DC and VA folks. Looks like N & W of DC will do just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 After last year, I simply can't get excited unless we get 8" or more. After this winter, all it takes is a flippin inch to get me excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The 18Z nam is interesting but so are the plume diagrams from the sref. There are reasons to stay conservative on the Thursday night into Friday event. The SREF ensemble members which suggested today's storm had more potential to remain all ice than the CWG gave credit to east of DC. A number of SREF members are saying upcoming event may have ptype issues. You can look at a plume diagram and see all the sref member precipitation at this site http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/ensembles/Plumes.html. Set it for the 15Z run and DC and you'll get the product. The mean precipitation from all the sref runs is .25. The mean snowfall is 0.08 so there are more rain members than snow members The 18Z nam is pretty but is one model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 After last year, I simply can't get excited unless we get 8" or more. After this year, I'm excited for anything that is 3"+. Remember where you live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I am pretty sure the NAM tends to run warm on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yoda... was that... a... metfan model analysis post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 <-- Patiently waiting until we're within 48h to discuss RaSn line By tomorrow at noon i expect to hear your full dissertation . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 <-- Patiently waiting until we're within 48h to discuss RaSn line Me too, the 15Z sref members were pretty ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It looks like if we're going to get warning criteria snows, we may have to thread the needle with temps...Glad Im further north than you DC and VA folks. KEZF is 32 degrees at 2m at 60 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It looks like if we're going to get warning criteria snows, we may have to thread the needle with temps...Glad Im further north than you DC and VA folks. This event isn't all about you Chris! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This event isn't all about you Chris! Just the fact that you know his first name is scary . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This event isn't all about you Chris! Typical B-More donk, still bitter the Steelers own the ravens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This event isn't all about you Chris! Lol..I was just making a point...stop busting my balls! Just the fact that you know his first name is scary . Thanks buddy...at least we're both Ravens fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The 18Z nam is interesting but so are the plume diagrams from the sref. There are reasons to stay conservative on the Thursday night into Friday event. The SREF ensemble members which suggested today's storm had more potential to remain all ice than the CWG gave credit to east of DC. A number of SREF members are saying upcoming event may have ptype issues. You can look at a plume diagram and see all the sref member precipitation at this site http://cms.met.psu.e...es/Plumes.html. Set it for the 15Z run and DC and you'll get the product. The mean precipitation from all the sref runs is .25. The mean snowfall is 0.08 so there are more rain members than snow members The 18Z nam is pretty but is one model run. Thanks Wes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Just the fact that you know his first name is scary . What the heck does this imply? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 OH baby look at those uvv's my ice cumpadre. ¿ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 ¿ lol whatever, anyways nice little 3-6 inch potential here for most, S MD might have a bit of precip issues, but the NAM with temps at this range is...well yeah we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 What the heck does this imply? I don't know ANDY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 18z NAM soudings... will update as I go along so you may see edits in here... KEZF -- 0.30 total QPF. At 66 hrs, 2m temp is 34.6 degrees. While 850s-1000 are between 0 and +2... 700mb UVV's are near 15 and everything in the column plunges below -7 (besides 950 mb which heads to -3.2) by hr 72... so I am inclined to believe dynamics overcome the temps for a very wet snow here... but if you are south of here its likely a mix KMRB -- 0.16 total QPF. Upper 20s for temps. 850s are -5.5, next to zero UVV's. KFDK -- 0.21 total QPF. Upper 20s for temps. 850s are -3.4, next to zero UVV's. KIAD -- 0.24 total QPF. Around 30 for temps. 850s are -2.3, UVV's.are 10.5. 900 mb layer is -1... but dynamics should overcome that. KBWI -- 0.24 total QPF. Around 30 for temps. UVV's are 15.8. 850-900mb are just below zero... but dynamics should overcome that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I don't know ANDY Andy? Andy who? My name is Fred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 18z NAM soudings... will update as I go along so you may see edits in here... KEZF -- 0.30 total QPF. At 66 hrs, 2m temp is 34.6 degrees. While 850s-1000 are between 0 and +2... 700mb UVV's are near 15 and everything in the column plunges below -7 (besides 950 mb which heads to -3.2) by hr 72... so I am inclined to believe dynamics overcome the temps for a very wet snow here... but if you are south of here its likely a mix KMRB -- 0.16 total QPF. Upper 20s for temps. 850s are -5.5, next to zero UVV's. KFDK -- 0.21 total QPF. Upper 20s for temps. 850s are -3.4, next to zero UVV's. KAPG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I like the NAM a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I like the NAM a lot but before I buy it I'm waiting for some support. For the last week storm it was vastly overdoing the precip in our area right up to the 6z run day of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Gaining on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 nam looks great for boston! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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