Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I've heard this song before. #1 song on AMERICANWX BANSTAND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Will this be another 1-3 inch event (meaning a Flizzard)....folks over at Accu believe it is. Why such an early estimate? 72 hours out, I wouldnt say its an early first call...but yeah it does have some bust potential..on either side...Im leaning 2-4 for central MD right now myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Some small changes and it sounds like the Euro would not be NADS...but SOS. Same Old Screwing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 2-3? 2.3? 20.3? 203? Don't leave me in suspense Wes; what's your threshold for pre-changeover snow satisfaction? :-) (hope you are feeling better by the way) I'm feeling good an have the Ok to resume my normal activities including running. I'd be satisfied with 2 to 3 inches as that would be my biggest snow of the season. However, I think the gfs solution is probably as valid as the euro or that the real solution could be a compromise between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm feeling good an have the Ok to resume my normal activities including running. I'd be satisfied with 2 to 3 inches as that would be my biggest snow of the season. However, I think the gfs solution is probably as valid as the euro or that the real solution could be a compromise between the two. Wow you are easy to please. I am glad to hear you are feeling better and back to your normal activities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Some small changes and it sounds like the Euro would not be NADS...but SOS. Same Old Screwing. The later storm on the Euro seems different than what we have seen before. I like the track a lot and the southern low seems to remain dominant all the way through so no phasing jump BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 On the 12z GFS soundings... FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY KIAD -- 850 temps are -4.6 with 0.09 QPF at 66 and -8.3 with 0.18 QPF at 72. 2m temps are between 26-28 degrees. KBWI -- 850 temps are -4.9 with 0.06 QPF at 66 and -7.4 with 0.24 QPF at 72. 2m temps are between 26-27 degrees. KDCA -- 850 temps are -4.2 with 0.06 QPF at 66 and -7.4 with 0.22 QPF at 72. 2m temps are around 28 degrees. KFDK -- 850 temps are -5.9 with 0.10 QPF at 66 and -9.5 with 0.17 QPF at 72. 2m temps are between 23-25 degrees. KMRB -- 850 temps are -5.9 with 0.13 QPF at 66 and -10.3 with 0.12 QPF at 72. 2m temps are in the lower 20s. KEZF -- 850 temps are -2.8 with 0.04 QPF at 66 and -6.2 with 0.12 QPF at 72. 2m temps are right around 32 degrees. BTW... 2m temps at 96 hrs are around 10 degrees at the major airports... FDK is around 7 degrees. EZF 13. MRB 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm feeling good an have the Ok to resume my normal activities including running. I'd be satisfied with 2 to 3 inches as that would be my biggest snow of the season. However, I think the gfs solution is probably as valid as the euro or that the real solution could be a compromise between the two. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 BTW... 2m temps at 96 hrs are around 10 degrees at the major airports... Nice ! If last night's snow cover sticks around, and we get snow on top Friday morning, that would make for a sweet January weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The later storm on the Euro seems different than what we have seen before. I like the track a lot and the southern low seems to remain dominant all the way through so no phasing jump BS. I'm only seeing up to the Day 7 500mb/surface panel (can someone post Day 8 and 9, please?), but Wes is right about the low in the Great Lakes. That's been the problem several times. At the moment, it seems like it's not a BIG problem, just prevents things from being 100% snow. But again, if that's stronger/faster...it could warm things up and prevent the southern storm from doing much in our area. Seems really hard to get a pure southern stream storm this year...which I know is typically Nina climo, but it still sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 From Joe Lundberg at Accuwx: With the storm likely to deepen Thursday night and Friday as it cuts across extreme southeastern New England, the amounts should easily double, with 6-12 inches becoming a more common snow total for eastern Pennsylvania and possibly northern Maryland into much of New England. I wouldn't be shocked if someone wound up with 15 to 20 inches in portions of southern and eastern New England. PSUHoffman this may be your 6-12" storm you expect every winter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 4 pages for a model that's sucked lately. will the euro ever lose its esteem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 From Joe Lundberg at Accuwx: With the storm likely to deepen Thursday night and Friday as it cuts across extreme southeastern New England, the amounts should easily double, with 6-12 inches becoming a more common snow total for eastern Pennsylvania and possibly northern Maryland into much of New England. I wouldn't be shocked if someone wound up with 15 to 20 inches in portions of southern and eastern New England. PSUHoffman this may be your 6-12" storm you expect every winter . Hmm Im a little surprised Joe is that bullish on this one, he usually plays the conservative guy at Accu..I guess you have to with Madman and JB running around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 4 pages for a model that's sucked lately. will the euro ever lose its esteem? Only when you lose your self esteem to forecast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Only when you lose your self esteem to forecast . that might be by tomorrow if phineas keeps being mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 On the 12z GFS soundings... FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY KIAD -- 850 temps are -4.6 with 0.09 QPF at 66 and -8.3 with 0.18 QPF at 72. 2m temps are between 26-28 degrees. KBWI -- 850 temps are -4.9 with 0.06 QPF at 66 and -7.4 with 0.24 QPF at 72. 2m temps are between 26-27 degrees. KDCA -- 850 temps are -4.2 with 0.06 QPF at 66 and -7.4 with 0.22 QPF at 72. 2m temps are around 28 degrees. KFDK -- 850 temps are -5.9 with 0.10 QPF at 66 and -9.5 with 0.17 QPF at 72. 2m temps are between 23-25 degrees. KMRB -- 850 temps are -5.9 with 0.13 QPF at 66 and -10.3 with 0.12 QPF at 72. 2m temps are in the lower 20s. KEZF -- 850 temps are -2.8 with 0.04 QPF at 66 and -6.2 with 0.12 QPF at 72. 2m temps are right around 32 degrees. BTW... 2m temps at 96 hrs are around 10 degrees at the major airports... FDK is around 7 degrees. EZF 13. MRB 6. Hope I got everyone on the 12z GFS... if not let me know. Looks good with the 850s dropping during the snow.. so that might increase SR's a tad as the snow moves toward its end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 4 pages for a model that's sucked lately. will the euro ever lose its esteem? For me this year it has. Too many fantasy porno storms... and too little verifying. Until the GFS pulls the football away I'm ridin' it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 that might be by tomorrow if phineas keeps being mean He is always mean that is his lovely personality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The Euro may have been doing pretty bad this year but we will never ignore it. It's actually kinda refreshing seeing the NAM/GFS combo becoming more credible and better performing. Go USA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Winter Storm Watch has been hoisted by NWS Charleston already for Thursday night and Friday. Not sure I can recall a watch going up so early. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 230 PM EST TUE JAN 18 2011 ...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... WVZ038-046-047-190330- /O.NEW.KRLX.WS.A.0002.110120T2100Z-110122T0600Z/ WEBSTER-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COWEN...MARLINTON...ELKINS 230 PM EST TUE JAN 18 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW SHOWERS * ACCUMULATIONS: POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 8 INCHES IN 24 HOURS. * TIMING: THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS LIKELY TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. * IMPACTS: UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME SNOW AND ICE COVERED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 anybody else get the error message with calamari icon from the ncep site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I was just about to post that WVclimo... I was a bit surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Seems insanely early for a WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Is that the first watch Charleston has gotten to put up this year? Maybe they are just excited to get off the schneid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Afternoon HWO from LWX: LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 15z SREFs have the 0.25" line on top of the Potomac for the Friday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 15z SREFs have the 0.25" line on top of the Potomac for the Friday storm. WHat did 15z SREF show for 2m temps for DC and Balt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 And there goes NCEP again with an error re cache Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 NWS now has 70% chance of snow for me on Thursday night, 50% for fri, but the term is just snow showers.......Guess they dont want to commit to an accumulating event yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 15z SREFs have the 0.25" line on top of the Potomac for the Friday storm. thats about where it was for last week.. still plenty close to the much less precip zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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