Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 hr 174 broad 1012 low along the south east coast 0c to bwi-- ric to dc over 0.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This is how much CRAS sucks, it goes from the mid 50s to like the teens in 9hours.Heavy Rain to Big Snows In NYC Please stop posting about the CRAS. It is garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Real nice storm on the Euro. I'm feeling the pressure now thanks to Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 wow on Day 7 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=madv&in=.5&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 hr 180 1008 broad low off of va-- dc +4 0c to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 hr 180 1008 broad low off of va-- dc +4 0c to nyc not again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 hr 180 1008 broad low off of va-- dc +4 0c to nyc Nice and toasty. That is a new way to get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 not again relax we would get a pretty good snow before the changeover, and looking at the MOS data north and west of the cities get hit really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The last 1-2 weeks, the Euro really seems to be swinging for the fences on a big-time Miller A in the Day 7 range. Unfortunately, they haven't gotten much closer than Day 7 ever because the Euro keeps losing them (and ultimately they don't occur). Maybe this one will be the exception since it seems to have some support from the GFS and GGEM. Yes, agree 100%. However, it has always been the result of a NS vort mis-timing the favorable phase and screwing everything up. Or, it's the whole OV low needing to transfer to the low on the coast. Those setups are really tough south of the M/D line. What's going on with the NS during the Euro's solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 relax we would get a pretty good snow before the changeover, and looking at the MOS data north and west of the cities get hit really good. It is silly to worry about temps 180 hours away anyway since the Euro will probably look totally different in 12 hours. It didn't even get the temps for last night correct 12 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 relax we would get a pretty good snow before the changeover, and looking at the MOS data north and west of the cities get hit really good. I know, but its always sumthin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 hr 180 1008 broad low off of va-- dc +4 0c to nyc Can't get hung up on the Oc line right now. I remember Weather53 talking about looking for the location and strength of the high in SE Cananda before worrying about temp profiles on the model output. There was a rule of thumb he used but I can't remember the location and MBs that kept our chances favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Nice and toasty. That is a new way to get screwed. Why does it warm up so much with such a good track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Nice and toasty. That is a new way to get screwed. If I get 2o3 inches of snow prior to a changeover I'd be happy. It's still so far in the future that the next run will be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 how much precip after it warms in the DCA/BWI area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Why does it warm up so much with such a good track? nothing to hold the cold High pressure to the north in it just moves off because we don't have a 50/50 Low locking in the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Why does it warm up so much with such a good track? Look where the surface high is, also you have another low well to the northwest so 850 mb prior to the storm getting up to us there probably is a pretty good easterly component at 5000 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 If I get 2o3 inches of snow prior to a changeover I'd be happy. It's still so far in the future that the next run will be different. 2-3? 2.3? 20.3? 203? Don't leave me in suspense Wes; what's your threshold for pre-changeover snow satisfaction? :-) (hope you are feeling better by the way) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 looks like its over at ROA at 168 hrs, so it seems like it doesn't warm until most of the precip is gone in DCA/BWI. Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 the bowling ball in kansas heads east, but the northern branch on crack dives in and just absorbs it so the time it hits the east coast it's flat, then a weak miller b forms off the northen branch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Thanks for the response guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Can't get hung up on the Oc line right now. I remember Weather53 talking about looking for the location and strength of the high in SE Cananda before worrying about temp profiles on the model output. There was a rule of thumb he used but I can't remember the location and MBs that kept our chances favorable. just posting what the models says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insanegrenade Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Will this be another 1-3 inch event (meaning a Flizzard)....folks over at Accu believe it is. Why such an early estimate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 just posting what the models says midlo, how much qpf falls after the warmth at 174 hrs around DCA/BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 the bowling ball in kansas heads east, but the northern branch on crack dives in and just absorbs it so the time it hits the east coast it's flat, then a weak miller b forms off the northen branch I've heard this song before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 just posting what the models says Oh no, wasn't saying anything about your post. It was the responses afterwards that I based my post on. However, Wes and Mitchnick just answered all of my questions in 2 sentences. I was hoping for a different set-up but was wrong. No 50/50 and an 850 to the NW = we all know the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 midlo, how much qpf falls after the warmth at 174 hrs around DCA/BWI? 0.05-0.10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 0.05-0.10 Thump to drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 0.05-0.10 cool, then its a 4-6" event ending as lt rain/drizzle typical 70's NINA storm I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 how much precip after it warms in the DCA/BWI area? Forget after...how much falls before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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