WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Very true, I hear this many times myself...I usually try to explain number 1. but its getting redundant, I think ill try 2. Sorry, but I can't let this one pass. One, you're not a meteorologist. Two, you're not Ian. All you did for the past 5 days is bash any thought or any model that said last night could be interesting. For a great many of us, last night was a pretty darn good storm for this winter. You poo-poo it from the get go. If Ian has something to say about a storm, and not liking its chances, he backs it up with a reason and some knowledge. Not just a "that won't verify". Maybe I've got you all wrong, and I do apologize for being the one to single this post out, but you're gonna have to demonstrate some knowledge to go with your negativity. I don't think number 2 is going to work too well for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You have a reputation to uphold now... you're a blogger. You HAVE changed since last year and that's why. I don't care but I do find it humorous at times. sure that's probably part of it.. i've been forecasting on CWG for just about three full years now. that's tought me to be cautious much more than i used to be. also, for the last yr i've been heavily researching snow climo etc. people just forget how hard it is to get a 4-6"+ storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 sure that's probably part of it.. i've been forecasting on CWG for just about three full years now. that's tought me to be cautious much more than i used to be. also, for the last yr i've been heavily researching snow climo etc. people just forget how hard it is to get a 4-6"+ storm here. Even harder after getting 4'+ a year ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 it's not that. but im not going to toss what i've learned over the yrs from numerous quality meteorologists like wes so people who want snow will be happier to read my posts. i know a good bit if just joking but from some people that's all i get -- oh you'r so negative, blah blah blah. more like a realist. I say keep up the good work. Even if you bring news to me that I wasn't wanting to hear, it helps me to keep my excitement and hope at a reasonable level. That being said, after what you have seen in the latest modeling, do you see a situation in which this low doesn't jump? Can it just hold together, like the UK solution I've seen a couple of posts about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 sure that's probably part of it.. i've been forecasting on CWG for just about three full years now. that's tought me to be cautious much more than i used to be. also, for the last yr i've been heavily researching snow climo etc. people just forget how hard it is to get a 4-6"+ storm here. Exactly. Last year spoiled everyone. Before last year we had 3 years in a row of one 4" storm per year. That's it. Side note: I was thinking of this just the other day. How many storms have we had since 1996 that gave DC/Balt over 4" of snow in January? Last year we had that one at the end of the month but I cannot think of another one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 So can we get some Euro analysis in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 sure that's probably part of it.. i've been forecasting on CWG for just about three full years now. that's tought me to be cautious much more than i used to be. also, for the last yr i've been heavily researching snow climo etc. people just forget how hard it is to get a 4-6"+ storm here. Unfortunately, having a level head can come across to some as pessimism. Some mistake it as not wanting snow. Of course, you already know this. But I can see how it gets old. Wes hears it all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sorry, but I can't let this one pass. One, you're not a meteorologist. Two, you're not Ian. All you did for the past 5 days is bash any thought or any model that said last night could be interesting. For a great many of us, last night was a pretty darn good storm for this winter. You poo-poo it from the get go. If Ian has something to say about a storm, and not liking its chances, he backs it up with a reason and some knowledge. Not just a "that won't verify". Maybe I've got you all wrong, and I do apologize for being the one to single this post out, but you're gonna have to demonstrate some knowledge to go with your negativity. I don't think number 2 is going to work too well for you. Just for the record, Im gung ho about the Friday storm...yeah I was off for this storm, personally Id rather have snow than a slop/ice storm, so in my book it wasnt a good storm, but I get your point....I dont know where this thought that Im negative on every storm is coming from....Also as a STUDENT, and follower, I hear that statement often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 So can we get some Euro analysis in here? I'm sure Tombo's rattling some nonsense off in the PHIL thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Side note: I was thinking of this just the other day. How many storms have we had since 1996 that gave DC/Balt over 4" of snow in January? Last year we had that one at the end of the month but I cannot think of another one. I'd have to look but last jan was the first + snow jan in a decade at dc so maybe about thea long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 So can we get some Euro analysis in here? it's only out to 30... looks like it shafts us tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Exactly. Last year spoiled everyone. Before last year we had 3 years in a row of one 4" storm per year. That's it. Side note: I was thinking of this just the other day. How many storms have we had since 1996 that gave DC/Balt over 4" of snow in January? Last year we had that one at the end of the month but I cannot think of another one. January 2000, and January 2004. For some, January 2005. For my backyard, also January 2008 and January 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I say keep up the good work. Even if you bring news to me that I wasn't wanting to hear, it helps me to keep my excitement and hope at a reasonable level. That being said, after what you have seen in the latest modeling, do you see a situation in which this low doesn't jump? Can it just hold together, like the UK solution I've seen a couple of posts about. i would slightly agree with you, in that baltwxguy comes across as a poser (but not as bad as mad cheese), but you might be too much into the "excitement" thing....investing emotion towards model simulations or in advance of weather outcomes will leave you frustrated and letdown most of the time, at least around this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'd have to look but last jan was the first + snow jan in a decade at dc so probably about thea long. I guess my point is that Jan typically sucks for us. We're only ticked off because of our snow hole ... it NOT snowing around here in January is NOT UNUSUAL. That by the way is how I sleep at night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 January 2000, and January 2004. For some, January 2005. For my backyard, also January 2008 and January 2001. Jan 2000... that was that surprise storm right? I don't remember Jan 2004 at all... anyone have any data on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Unfortunately, having a level head can come across to some as pessimism. Some mistake it as not wanting snow. Of course, you already know this. But I can see how it gets old. Wes hears it all the time. It's one thing if Ian or Wes have something negative to say. And other mets, and even a couple of other non-mets. They back it up with something. No need to be upset if they say it. If I read something bad about a storm from one of these guys, I just accept it and go on. It's quite another to hear negative from people who can't back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 it's only out to 30... looks like it shafts us tonight I hadn't paid much attention to the tonight thing so no big loss. It always seemed warm to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i would slightly agree with you, in that baltwxguy comes across as a poser (but not as bad as mad cheese), but you might be too much into the "excitement" thing....investing emotion towards model simulations or in advance of weather outcomes will leave you frustrated and letdown most of the time, at least around this area. You are probably right on that one. Just can't help it. That's one of the good things about this forum. I can get enough info here that my excitement level is only slightly higher than it should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 through hr 48 precip is further south than oz in the mid west, heights are a little lower in the east as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 through hr 48 precip is further south than oz in the mid west, heights are a little lower in the east as well in keeping with all other 12Z guidance it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 thru 60 fairly similar.. surface reflection was just starting at 0z around now but not there yet at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Holy CRAS http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_078l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 66 (6z fri) has elongated surface reflection here and south, compared to here and slightly north at 0z.. looks like it's still going to screw us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 hr 66 alot less precip no real surface reflection compared to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 66 (6z fri) has elongated surface reflection here and south, compared to here and slightly north at 0z.. looks like it's still going to screw us I have a real hard time believing that the Euro, considering how its been this year, will pull the lonely coup on the Friday event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 a little better for dc area north at 72.. about .1" for n md, .05 into dc area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm kind of with Ian about the gfs probably being a best case scenario for us. I suspect that the nam qpf is a little overdone. The gfs has support from quite a few of the 06Z ensembles and I guess the ukmet. It looks more like a 1-3 inch storm than a greater than 3 inch storm and that's assuming it's all snow which is not yet a given. The nam has heavier precip but its ptype is not set in stone. If you look at the soundings they are dicey for dc east at 66 hours. at 72hrs it would be snow for dca but with an isothermal layer right at freezing suggesting lots of riming which could lead to snow either having huge flakes from aggregation or being super heavily rimed. at my house the nam has surface temp issues. Anyway those are thoughts after a quick peak at the models. Lots can change in terms of ptype but it's hard to imagine this being a major snowstorm looking at the 500h vort pattern and location. At least that's how I see it now. 6 hours from now I coud always change my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Holy CRAS http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_078l.gif The CRAS has given me about 100 inches of snow so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 hr 66 alot less precip no real surface reflection compared to 0z What does the 500 look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Holy CRAS http://cimss.ssec.wi...na_pcp_078l.gif In my fantasies, we would get heavy snow with temps in the teens while Boston gets 55 degree rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.