mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Good agreement now between GFS, GGEM, UKMET, and NAM. Hopefully Euro/Ian will bite. given up on Wes, ehh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Based on what? Gut feeling? Bad attitude? Psychic reading? This is a storm thread. Post something that backs up your assertions. The NAM and now the GFS have both come in looking pretty darn good. If you're gonna throw them out, back it up. Good point. OK, my reasoning basically comes down to climo, not to mention the cheat sheet Mother Nature has provided from the past 3 similar situations. Models will continue to get the overall picture correct from 3-5 days out, but when it comes to the fine details of jet interaction/phasing and secondary low placement, it will not. Models have consistently shown us getting in on Miller B action at this time frame, but anyone who has lived in the area knows that it is much more the exception than the norm. It is a model bias or error or just maybe expecting too much from the models from that far out. I actually think the models have been pretty impressive and valuable this winter, but they have been misused. People have been buying model output hook-line-and sinker and using it as THE FORECAST rather than using the output as just one data point to consider in an overall forecast. Applying the human elements of climatology, tendencies, lessons learned from past/recent storms, etc., makes meteorology METEOROLOGY and not just model regurgitation. So if the models are showing me very similar things to what they were showing before and we got screwed, I would expect nothing different this time. If someone can point out a specific feature that makes this event different, I am all ears. But even then, it could be just a model error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 hopefully people like you will grow up and stfu Good luck with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 IAN punted the ice storm incorrectly so I am getting more optimistic for the future events he is punting. All hail Yoda. King of Ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 12z ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 12z ens not good. it was much WETTER yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 is ncep models down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Around a 10hour event on GGEM. 0z had the event going on that long too, except with warmer temps and heavier precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 not good. it was much WETTER yesterday I am getting FRI map on 60 and 84 and TUE map on 72hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GGEM then gets massively cold. Surface temps 0-10 at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 hopefully people like you will grow up and stfu Relax, it's just snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 IAN punted the ice storm incorrectly so I am getting more optimistic for the future events he is punting. All hail Yoda. King of Ice storm i didnt punt it. i was off by like .05-.1" ice in some spots from my guess on friday or saturday that i never updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 hopefully people like you will grow up and stfu I doubt that will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Relax, it's just snow. it's just annoying getting **** for being right more often than not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 it's just annoying getting **** for being right more often than not its not that hard to be right in DC about no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 it's just annoying getting **** for being right more often than not Welcome to meteorology. If I had a nickel for everytime I heard the layman's (translation--"douchebag") joke about "weatherman are the only people who can be wrong 9 out of 10 times and still get paid", I'd be a very rich man. I've heard it so many motherf-cking times I just usually walk away from the conversation or ignore that person. I decided that was better than either: 1. Trying to explain the "selection effect bias" on human memory 2. Telling them to f-ck off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Ian, some of us genuinely appreciate your contributions no matter the results. I tend to prefer reasoned analysis and predictions over rash, illogical optimism or pessimism that seems to be determined solely by the poster's location relative to the QPF outputs/850 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Ian, some of us genuinely appreciate your contributions no matter the results. I tend to prefer reasoned analysis and predictions over rash, illogical optimism or pessimism that seems to be determined solely by the poster's location relative to the QPF outputs/850 line. Well done Sabre. At least, going forward, we have some "threats". Keep the expectations low and anything better will be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 it's just annoying getting **** for being right more often than not People will be mad if I run you off the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Welcome to meteorology. If I had a nickel for everytime I heard the layman's (translation--"douchebag") joke about "weatherman are the only people who can be wrong 9 out of 10 times and still get paid", I'd be a very rich man. I've heard it so many motherf-cking times I just usually walk away from the conversation or ignore that person. I decided that was better than either: 1. Trying to explain the "selection effect bias" on human memory 2. Telling them to f-ck off yeah... probably good advice. Ian, some of us genuinely appreciate your contributions no matter the results. I tend to prefer reasoned analysis and predictions over rash, illogical optimism or pessimism that seems to be determined solely by the poster's location relative to the QPF outputs/850 line. im not looking for sympathy, but thx. i post too much in general so i end up with a lot of 'calls' that others never make to be graded on. and not to pat myself on the back but im pretty sure i was one of the first in this subforum to even pay attention to friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Welcome to meteorology. If I had a nickel for everytime I heard the layman's (translation--"douchebag") joke about "weatherman are the only people who can be wrong 9 out of 10 times and still get paid", I'd be a very rich man. I've heard it so many motherf-cking times I just usually walk away from the conversation or ignore that person. I decided that was better than either: 1. Trying to explain the "selection effect bias" on human memory 2. Telling them to f-ck off Well said! I heard a similar joke about baseball. Something to the effect of what other sport/occupation can you be successful a mere 30% of the time and be considered one of the greats?? (i.e., lifetime .300 hitter, making the Hall of Fame, or something like that). Actually, the comparison isn't bad here (baseball/weather). Anyone who can hit a small ball thrown at them at 90+MPH from 60'6" away at a .300 clip is amazing. Likewise, anyone who can make a reasonable assessment of significant weather events, taking in the wide range of data and model guidance is pretty amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 im not looking for sympathy, but thx. i post too much in general so i end up with a lot of 'calls' that others never make to be graded on. and not to pat myself on the back but im pretty sure i was one of the first in this subforum to even pay attention to friday. Not intended so much as sympathy as it is a statement on what the regional model threads have done. Much harder to sift through the crap to get to the quality. Still, I appreciate the quality posts you and some of the others consistently offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm a monster. it's not that. but im not going to toss what i've learned over the yrs from numerous quality meteorologists like wes so people who want snow will be happier to read my posts. i know a good bit if just joking but from some people that's all i get -- oh you'r so negative, blah blah blah. more like a realist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Is wes still typing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Welcome to meteorology. If I had a nickel for everytime I heard the layman's (translation--"douchebag") joke about "weatherman are the only people who can be wrong 9 out of 10 times and still get paid", I'd be a very rich man. I've heard it so many motherf-cking times I just usually walk away from the conversation or ignore that person. I decided that was better than either: 1. Trying to explain the "selection effect bias" on human memory 2. Telling them to f-ck off Very true, I hear this many times myself...I usually try to explain number 1. but its getting redundant, I think ill try 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm a monster. Monster? Nah. I think you were just the proverbial piece of straw. Have a beer, get rid of that faint hangover, and you'll feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Is wes still typing? The nurse is giving him a sponge bath so im not so sure what he is typing with . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Ian, some of us genuinely appreciate your contributions no matter the results. I tend to prefer reasoned analysis and predictions over rash, illogical optimism or pessimism that seems to be determined solely by the poster's location relative to the QPF outputs/850 line. Nicely said. Ian continue doing your thing... I'd rather listen to a realist like you or Wes than... well you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 it's not that. but im not going to toss what i've learned over the yrs from numerous quality meteorologists like wes so people who want snow will be happier to read my posts. i know a good bit if just joking but from some people that's all i get -- oh you'r so negative, blah blah blah. more like a realist. You have a reputation to uphold now... you're a blogger. You HAVE changed since last year and that's why. I don't care but I do find it humorous at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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