mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 ukie takes the low due east across central va that's a real good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg81988 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 ukie takes the low due east across central va Which means what for Richmond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 well, not hearsay, more like weenie hope speaking of weenie hope, wait till the GFS come into the feb 1 time frame, the 6z showed a huge storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Bonus...GFS storm misses NYC and SNE Well, at least doesn't give them any more than what we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Seems like pretty solid consensus developing for a 2-4 type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 agree, the northern vort is not going to our south. But if we got EVERYTHING else to line up perfectly with some STJ moisture and the phase at the exact right time we could pull a 4-8" event out of the hat. It would have to be perfect and that is about the max for our area but its possible. Trends today are good so far. i doubt a 4-8 event but it may be possible. 1-3/2-4 still seems like a safe baseline for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I have had less than 3" here, so I would think that is well below average. But I must say it has been an entertaining winter in tracking storms and rumors of storms even if none have really panned out. If DC gets 3-5" on Friday, I will call it the Slumpbuster Storm. It is not gonna happen though. Based on what? Gut feeling? Bad attitude? Psychic reading? This is a storm thread. Post something that backs up your assertions. The NAM and now the GFS have both come in looking pretty darn good. If you're gonna throw them out, back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Which means what for Richmond? UKIE would probably be a snow to mix/rain scenario depending on what part of Metro RIC you live in. The GFS that all the DC bunnies are orgasming over dry slots us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i doubt a 4-8 event but it may be possible. 1-3/2-4 still seems like a safe baseline for now. Well we have this biggie which as it stands now looks like 2-4" for Baltimore and they we have the not go nads storm followed by the Hoffman storm Monday night into Tuesday, i may not sleep a wink this week from all the excitement . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i doubt a 4-8 event but it may be possible. 1-3/2-4 still seems like a safe baseline for now. yeah I am very much with you on that thinking, I put out 1-4 lat night and right now would stick with that but if trends continue might bump it towards 2-5" area wide. Just saying max for our area would be 4-8 and its possible, if not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well we have this biggie which as it stands now looks like 2-4" for Baltimore and they we have the not go nads storm followed by the Hoffman storm Monday night into Tuesday, i may not sleep a wink this week from all the excitement . well as pessimistic as i am i said i wanted to get past this storm b/c i thought there was some promise for the rest of the mo afterwards. last yr was dc's first above avg jan snow in a decade.. maybe we can make it two in a row if we're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS cooking something up by 132 hrs very similar in look to Friday's event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 well as pessimistic as i am i said i wanted to get past this storm b/c i thought there was some promise for the rest of the mo afterwards. last yr was dc's first above avg jan snow in a decade.. maybe we can make it two in a row if we're lucky. With the upcoming pattern it sure looks like we have a chance, and from where we were sitting a week ago that is all i could have ever asked for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS cooking something up by 132 hrs very similar in look to Friday's event I think thats the Psuhoffman storm - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/9253-the-psuhoffman-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 well as pessimistic as i am i said i wanted to get past this storm b/c i thought there was some promise for the rest of the mo afterwards. last yr was dc's first above avg jan snow in a decade.. maybe we can make it two in a row if we're lucky. uh oh... do we agree on the way this pattern is evolving? This could be bad, might have to rethink things. JK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS qpf: BWI-.31 DCA-.28" IAD-.27" all snow for everyone Those are nice numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS cooking something up by 132 hrs very similar in look to Friday's event 24 hours of flurries for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 well as pessimistic as i am i said i wanted to get past this storm b/c i thought there was some promise for the rest of the mo afterwards. last yr was dc's first above avg jan snow in a decade.. maybe we can make it two in a row if we're lucky. 2010 season spillover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 uh oh... do we agree on the way this pattern is evolving? This could be bad, might have to rethink things. JK it's been so crappy it can only get better unless it stays crappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 My optimism has notched up 2 more ticks since the bump from the NAM earlier. As a matter of fact, the GFS/NAM combo did very well for last nights system. The cold held longer than modeled and we all knew that was probable given the difficultly of forecasting CAD. Minor diff in wind direction did it for us. Hard to argue against the NAM/GFS combo for Fri after most recent performance. NAM has been pretty good with the last 2 systems. There is nothing weenie about agreeing with the 12Z runs at all. Even if the Euro takes it away, I'll still feel pretty confident that another winter event is on our doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS cooking something up by 132 hrs very similar in look to Friday's event its screwing up the surface some, might still get there later, but man do I love the H5 setup...its digging like crazy at 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 gfs going with a long duration event for the 25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 24 hours of flurries for me GFS is doing its typical feedback problem crap with that storm. Its racing a peice out ahead of the upper level support. Its surface solution is unlikely. Just look at the H5 for now, it looks really nice. This is the opposite of what we have dealt with all winter when the surface looked great but the H5 was a total sh*t show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 gfs going with a long duration event for the 25th So did the EURO on last night's 0Z run. It had some kind of light precip around our area for almost 2 days. But the EURO QPF was .75-1' for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 gfs going with a long duration event for the 25th 36 hours of flurries then maybe some light snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 at 174 looks like it should sent that vort to the south of dc area again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 at 174 looks like it should sent that vort to the south of dc area again welcome to the dark side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 36 hours of flurries then maybe some light snow! At least it will look nice outside the window. Just don't look at the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 welcome to the dark side it leaves all that stuff behind off the baja coast tho, not sure it matters. and it's like 100 days away anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 she goes boom and looks like it goes OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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