mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I guess we're gonna' find out if the pattern this season has morphed any Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 "UNCLE" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This is a non event. Was never excited about it. 3 inches is the max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Suicides here we come. Need some reassurance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 As usual, the models switch places. This happens all the time. Ride the overall consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 4:03 AM, mitchnick said: see my post below yours NAM comes south, of well no one said this hobby had to make sense this run is frustrating because it's a good reminder of reality lurking around the corner. we'll get some snow probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 4:05 AM, Ian said: this run is frustrating because it's a good reminder of reality lurking around the corner. we'll get some snow probably. UKMET looks a lot like the GFS FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 As soon as the snow starts...the back edge will be really close by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 4:05 AM, Ian said: this run is frustrating because it's a good reminder of reality lurking around the corner. we'll get some snow probably. yep, in typical NINA style for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 4:06 AM, psuhoffman said: UKMET looks a lot like the GFS FWIW if we can manage to get 1-2" every week through the end of next month i can end up within throwing distance of avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 4:05 AM, Ji said: This is a non event. Was never excited about it. 3 inches is the max Good luck on your next fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 ok its one run, its not a major shift north, it is with regard to outcome but its only a 30 or 40 mile shift really but when we were on the southern edge thats a big deal. Wait for the GGEM and the GEFS to see if its a trend or just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 4:06 AM, psuhoffman said: UKMET looks a lot like the GFS FWIW 60 hrs http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h60&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 4:07 AM, Ian said: if we can manage to get 1-2" every week through the end of next month i can end up within throwing distance of avg. I said 1-4" area wide 3 days ago and am still sticking with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 When does the 0z cras come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 4:07 AM, Ian said: if we can manage to get 1-2" every week through the end of next month i can end up within throwing distance of avg. Yeah that would be kinda pathetic to limp into average snowfall for the year on 1-2 inch events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The ensembles have been drier every run since the 12z Gfs yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 4:08 AM, mitchnick said: 60 hrs http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest this is only for 6 hrs preceding 60 hours and not 12 hrs 12hr info not available from Plymouth http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=prec&in=.1&pl=cf&ft=h60&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 you guys suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The storm trends as we get close this year have been horrendous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 4:10 AM, Ji said: The ensembles have been drier every run since the 12z Gfs yesterday The axis of heaviest snow is pretty much set at 3-6" as it crosses our area, the question is does it cross north of us or not. The ensembles would be a good indicator if the slight shift north in the GFS is a trend or just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Apparently, there is skeet falling in CPA, so it could be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I see nothing tonight that changes my call of 3 inches across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS is getting the southern stream energy for my storm stuck in the southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The qpf "brick wall" prominently displayed at 168. It just seems beyond chance that this could happen. No seasonal pattern could be this persistent without fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 anything to keep us for getting snow including a fantasy s/w getting suck in the soutwest for days right before it was going to phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 4:38 AM, Ji said: anything to keep us for getting snow including a fantasy s/w getting suck in the soutwest for days right before it was going to phase models sometimes struggle with getting energy stuck in the mtns out west, dont worry yet its a long ways out, setup is still pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 the gfs is one stingy son of $#...i hate that model. It will not even give us fantasy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 00z cras is out...it held serve http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/fp0_060.html http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/fp0_066.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 As it stands right now the 12z EURO gives us like .05-.1, the GFS gives Baltimore north .25+, the NAM gives Fredericksburg north .25, and the 21z SREF gives DC north .25. Anybody got the GGEM? I still feel like this could be a 2-5" event from DC north. The 0z NAM and the earlier GFS runs were really great. I hope the 0z GFS isn't the start of something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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