weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 NAM has not performed well this event in the initial hours. Beware hugging it because of the last event. This event is totally different. Not sure what it means but overall NAM is a crappy model over the past several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Could you please post the hyperlink instead of the image please? j/k High confidence in a 12" jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Not seeing many final calls other than Mine and Sam's..let's get em out there 1-2" SE MA 2-4" inside 495 S of BOS 4-8" Outside 495 out to ORH into S NH/ME 8"+ N & W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Not seeing many final calls other than Mine and Sam's..let's get em out there GC 7-12 front end dump....from 5-11 am... then mixing issues abound otherwise ????? mid level dynamics...extent of ML warming..as well as Eastward progession of front end dump up the hudson/ Ct river valley? as well as MSLP track are too difficult from quabbin East. would say areas of W fitchburg over to NW essex have best shot in ma of getting crushed with CCB in the pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 mike i think it's clear there off at least for WVA lol. wether the precip turns more NNE is a good question. i see it going up the W. periphery of the high...but i'm just a putz. precip will initially go more up to the west near Hudson Valley....all models show that...but it shifts east with the heaviest stuff later on Here was the 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Alright already, jeezuz, shoot me. No f*ckin' hyperlinking, got it , my god what a bunch of grouchy old f*cks!!! It's like I killed your cat or something. J/K You can kill my cats....they're too old and they routinely sh*t on the floor within a few feet of their litter boxes. I wish the dog would finish them off.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sweet bluebird day there today, must be awesome, tomorrow will be empty by afternoon, 45 run day if you can handle it, It was, didn't ski today though, travel day. Lines were REALLY small...not to go OT but I think a lot of people left the mountain about 2 yesterday to go watch the Patriots debacle. Between about 315 and 4 yesterday we got 6 runs in, no lift lines at all. Started at 8am, took only 15 minutes for lunch and was skiing the rest of the time. Probably managed about 30 runs total but had to spend time teaching the little ones too mid-day. Saturday was busier, but not bad really once you got away from South Ridge. The thing is they always have lift operators/line coordinators etc, so there is never really a problem. Legs held up, major league burning today. The upslope snows were really cool. Forecast had 1", easily saw 3" and the mountain reported 4". A few miles away they just had the scattered stuff. No sense of historical documentation FTL, takes what 30 seconds, oh well at lease we have CMASS and Will with common sense. Yes and what I just figured out is there is no personal upload limit like eastern which made it tough to document. There's no limit here, so save/upload away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You can kill my cats....they're too old and they routinely sh*t on the floor within a few feet of their litter boxes. I wish the dog would finish them off.... Outlaws locked the cat out of the room where he sometimes does his business (goes outside 99% of the time), came home to find a log in his cat bed. I'll keep the cat, outlaws can rent a hotel next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Final(?) Call: 3"-5" IMBY (Atkinson, NH - Methuen, MA/Salem,NH line). Going the conservative route though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I put in a final of 5-8 for mby earlier. I'll add a 3-6 call for PWM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You guys are wimps. Make them wait until they announce it in the morning like the good old days! I miss Dave Maynard reading the school closings with Don Kent giving the weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 21z SREF, right over outer cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You can kill my cats....they're too old and they routinely sh*t on the floor within a few feet of their litter boxes. I wish the dog would finish them off.... My last 2 cats were eaten by coyotes. No more cats as we don't want our daughter to get too attached to predator bait. You can bring your cats for a visit. Gone by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Not seeing many final calls other than Mine and Sam's..let's get em out there Sam had a big weenie with balls on his map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 NAM has not performed well this event in the initial hours. Beware hugging it because of the last event. This event is totally different. Not sure what it means but overall NAM is a crappy model over the past several years. You can still agree with a few distinguishing characteristics of a model forecast without hugging it IMO. For instance, I see a large plume of tropical moisture with high theta-e charging north toward a low level isentropic wall. Therefore I think that as far as QPF is concerned amounts may not be too far off from what the NAM is advertising this time around. I don't necessarily agree with other details, but that particular characteristic looks okay to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 My last 2 cats were eaten by coyotes. No more cats as we don't want our daughter to get too attached to predator bait. You can bring your cats for a visit. Gone by morning. Very tempting.........my daughter would be very unhappy. 16 and 14.....and healthy....damn it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You can still agree with a few distinguishing characteristics of a model forecast without hugging it IMO. For instance, I see a large plume of tropical moisture with high theta-e charging north toward a low level isentropic wall. Therefore I think that as far as QPF is concerned amounts may not be too far off from what the NAM is advertising this time around. I don't necessarily agree with other details, but that particular characteristic looks okay to me. Yes. But the reasoning that it nailed last storm, therefore it must be right doesn't make sense. What about the last storm was unique? John pointed it out. It may be great but it's hard for me to just take the bait without specific knowledge of why I should... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PineHillsWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I agree. This was premature But in wtby all the non-main streets are so bad with snowback there is barely enough room for a car and a school bus simultaneously... I have a feeling Wednesday will be getting the axe (or a delay) and possibly even Friday here....with MLK day today thats practically the whole week off... They will pay for it later My son lives in North Middlesex (Pepperell). I work from home when the weather is bad so I don't have to worry about early dismissal but you have to feel for parents when they both drive to work then find out that their kids are going to be dismissed early. It's not like when I grew up and most Mom's stayed home. There is a lot of pressure to inform parents in advance. I feel bad for the people in charge as they can't win. Based on the forecast, I can understand the move to cancel school for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Steve, What do you think our situation is going to be like over the next day or 2? I do like the fact that they are putting less emphasis on the rain aspect part of the forecast as they were doing earlier in the day. Looks like you and me will be right on the line. A more s/eastern shift would be nice. 2-4 ice/ sleet the rain then frzra to lite snow? IDK depends on how fast ML close off south of us and speed of East winds scouring out cold. Jerry Nam precip amounts look good, looks like MM5 only colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Paul in Milford doesn't want his server to get bogged down by hyperlinks to his page. What are you, his website security team? Paul should use a .htaccess file Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I am going 6-10" here..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 My final call 2-4" NW CT 3-6" southern part of ORH to 495 3-5 inside 495 7-10" IMBY, S ME 10-12" Keene, Nads 12-14" GC 1-2 SE MA, Cape, RI (sorry guys) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 -1/-6, just went for a walk. Beautiful halo around the moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yes. But the reasoning that it nailed last storm, therefore it must be right doesn't make sense. What about the last storm was unique? John pointed it out. It may be great but it's hard for me to just take the bait without specific knowledge of why I should... Who said that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 2-4 ice/ sleet the rain then frzra to lite snow? IDK depends on how fast ML close off south of us and speed of East winds scouring out cold. Jerry Nam precip amounts look good, looks like MM5 only colder I just signed up for Jetblue 2 hour notification. Hopefully delay as the flight is too damned early at 8:41. I'm feeling Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Could you please post the hyperlink instead of the image please? j/k LOL Can not hyperlink a screen image but hey that took too long to do, I just lost ten seconds off my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Who said that? Hi! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Who said that? Many. Because it did. But why did it and why should it now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 SREFs are a tick cooler with the 0C line this run, but they're still concerningly warm. The mean is only about 3-5" here before a changeover to ZR/RA. MOS has been unimpressed up here too with mostly MAV/MET snow cats of 4s or 6s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 What are you, his website security team? Paul should use a .htaccess file a friend lol....Amy and I were over his place a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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