moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 One storm overperformed after the 0z was run on that big blizzard and people will think now it's a much better model than it is. If it had continued (the storm) to trend as modeled the NAM would have busted a week ago too. It's supposed to do very well with temps, and it struggled again on this one just like it did down here in the big blizzard. Check out the QPF change up in NVT and ENY centered on the 12 hours ending at h27 on the 0z and 15h on the 12z. Yeah yeah I know, dont focus on the QPF but it's being driven/was being driven by phantom dynamics from a bad model. I like it. Has the heavy qpf in/out of here before much taining (I think). ice storom cancel for gc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 11F here, so once the snow ends, lots of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Still pretty light snow here in Billerica maybe 1" and holding at 16 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 NAM has been the best model by far with the thermal profile in this storm above the sfc. Its been awful with qpf and too warm with sfc temps, though every single model has been too warm at the sfc...as is usually the case in CAD setups. Wasn't there one awful run last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yup. S+, but flakes are small like Mark said (I think it was Mark). Twas I....this stuff doesn't add up fast, but it is still nice. wonder how long you and I will hold on. Temp not yet 10 here. Heavier echoes are giving better flakeage but not super better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Wasn't there one awful run last night? 00z run was terrible with qpf...but it was the closest with the thermal profile above the sfc even though we thought it might be too warm. It was the only model out of all of them to rip the sleet line to near the MA border by 12z this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Wasn't there one awful run last night? The 00z run had pretty much no snow for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 . . . Miserable ride to work today in Woodstock. (total ride from my house to work is 9.5 miles). The sleet was falling good in Brooklyn, but by the time I got here it was still a good mix of snow and sleet, and still is. On one big hill in Pomfret, I was stuck behind a volvo that just couldn't make it She rolled backwards past me and had to turn around and find another route. Also, when you go out in this garbage, make sure your windshield is heated up. I had to pull over twice to scrape a good 1/4" of ice off mine. The sh*t is nasty. The sooner this misery ends, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'll be flying to Chicago. I really wish I was out there doing some biling. Maybe I'll get out there this weekend. When the snow out here finally melts off in 4-5 months I'd like to get together with you for a round of Golf. Until then it's snowsports, snowsports, snowsports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 00z run was terrible with qpf...but it was the closest with the thermal profile above the sfc even though we thought it might be too warm. It was the only model out of all of them to rip the sleet line to near the MA border by 12z this morning. Interesting. Would like to hear Tip weigh in on this one, too. You, Messenger, and John are great at breaking down what is happening with these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 mod to heavy snow now!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 14/10, sn+, closing in on the 5". Snow flakes remain perfectly formed with no gloppy parachutes noted. I'm out for a while as I have to sled down to Northampton to take care of some business. Hope we continue to stave off the taint. Regardless, we have now had a positive gain to the already healthy snowpack (30+") and more will be added soon. CoT FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 mod to heavy snow now!! Yup, the morning DJ on WRSI just chimed in how bad driving conditions are up and down the I-91 corridor from Springfield to VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 mod to heavy snow now!! Cold is winning !!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 NAM has been the best model by far with the thermal profile in this storm above the sfc. Its been awful with qpf and too warm with sfc temps, though every single model has been too warm at the sfc...as is usually the case in CAD setups. It continues to do well tracking SLP, but IMO it will continue to struggle in just about every other area. I haven't looked all that closely but the 6h 12z forecast from today has the 0c 8h line down by you when last nights run had it at plymouth NH by that time. If that's the best I'd hate to see the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The thermal profile on Mt. Washington is always interesting to watch during events like this. It is currently above freezing at the 4000 foot level but much lower down below and above. http://www.mountwash...on.org/weather/ edit : well that would work better if the numbers showed up. 10F at 2300 32.3 at 4000 19 at summit Very similar to what we have at Stowe on Mount Mansfield... our network of weather stations for mountain operations is showing the following profile (the 3,900ft station is operated by NOAA): 3,900ft... 25F 3,600ft... 23F 2,400ft... 9F 1,550ft... 12F 800ft... 14F Just like the MWN observations, the coldest pocket is in the 1,500ft-2,500ft elevation band. This is usually how these events go... the coldest air lasts the longest right near 2000ft tucked in here to the east under the 4,000ft mile+ long ridgeline on Mansfield. Incredible thermal gradient right now though on the mountain... riding up the high speed Quad you clear 2,100 vertical feet in 7 minutes and you can actually feel when you burst through the inversion and the temp spikes over 10 degrees within seconds. Then skiing down you can feel it again, you are up high and its all nice and warm, then you ski down off the east side of Mansfield and drop into a refrigerator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 14/10, sn+, closing in on the 5". Snow flakes remain perfectly formed with no gloppy parachutes noted. I'm out for a while as I have to sled down to Northampton to take care of some business. Hope we continue to stave off the taint. Regardless, we have now had a positive gain to the already healthy snowpack (30+") and more will be added soon. CoT FTW. Let us know how things are down in 'Hamp. I may have to go later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 back to a 50/50 mix but its trying Cold is winning !!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 00z run was terrible with qpf...but it was the closest with the thermal profile above the sfc even though we thought it might be too warm. It was the only model out of all of them to rip the sleet line to near the MA border by 12z this morning. Yes it has. It's made my job easier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Interesting. Would like to hear Tip weigh in on this one, too. You, Messenger, and John are great at breaking down what is happening with these Listen to those guys haven't been following this one, have only looked/spoken of the NAM which like I said...it's shifting 50-100 miles at 8h 0c in 12 hours...to me that blows but if it's the best of the lot than it is what it is. Hoping for a solid inch of rain here to clear the streets for once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Really ripping out there. Snowflakes are still under-developed, but pouring down. About 3" on the ground now. 1/4 to 1/2sm vis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Snow just starting here..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Why does my p & c forecast from Box have us going back over to snow after 1pm? Mistake? Today: Snow and sleet, becoming all snow after 1pm. Patchy fog. High near 32. Northeast wind between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sleet so far anyway is saving the day here... just shovelled the driveway..and it's all covered with sleet again. 3 inches of snow/sleet combo so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 CoT . ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 All snow but light. Down to maybe 1 mile Vis at 14.1F. Out for a measurement soon, picking up to mod as I type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 N ORH mixing with sleet now. Still ripping up here in N Chelmsford though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 When the snow out here finally melts off in 4-5 months I'd like to get together with you for a round of Golf. Until then it's snowsports, snowsports, snowsports. Absolutely, too bad the Whippernon isn't still open...... The Ranch would be a good place if you haven't been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sleet so far anyway is saving the day here... just shovelled the driveway..and it's all covered with sleet again. 3 inches of snow/sleet combo so far What's your temp? We're up to a balmy 16.2. Can't see us getting above freezing at the surface up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 MA Pike shut down West at Charlton.....What a mess http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2011/01/morning_commute_3.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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