Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Difference in a 12 hour forecast for the NAM: 0z 15h has the 0c 850 line on the NH/MA border 12z 3h run has it on the MA/CT border. NAM phail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 if all goes according to plan (and isn't that a statement), we should be freakin ripping here at KLEB by 1pm. Not overly concerned over light snow at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 28.5 and -zr down here SE CT. About 1 inch of snow and sleet under a very thin layer of ice so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The thermal profile on Mt. Washington is always interesting to watch during events like this. It is currently above freezing at the 4000 foot level but much lower down below and above. http://www.mountwash...on.org/weather/ edit : well that would work better if the numbers showed up. Nice. Thanks for the link! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yup. S+, but flakes are small like Mark said (I think it was Mark). Yeah really coming down thick but no sign of those big, pre-change parachutes. This snow reminds me of some of the snowstorms I've been in Alaska for, very cold and low vis due to a gazillion small flakes in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i would think soon its going to go downhill fast Are you still snow down there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Will how much do you have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks like a sleet party from just north of ORH sw thorugh the eastern half of CT. Must be very loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Off to do some shoveling b/c my mom has to go to work...all this shoveling is killing my back, can't even really bend down. Luckily I'll be going to the doctors sometime this week or next week...so long as I still have insurance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Light snow started here in Portland, ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It looked to me like with the old runs you'd hang onto frozen longer than people thought. The new NAM just init'd somewhat colder than the prior two runs (what a surprise the NAM wasn't consistent yet again).... It was awful last night and has been playing catch up with the low level cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 heavy heavy sleet for the past 45 min Are you still snow down there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Maybe some freezing drizzle but I don't think we go to a period of zr. Pl won't be bad as it will help tack down the feet of powder now on the ground. More snow later in the week will be icing onthe cake.NPI exactly, much needed for this snowpack. 6" on top of this Friday night will make for perfect conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Cold air damming should keep you snow a while longer over there on the east slope. I do think everyone around here changes over to IP or ZR here over the next couple of hours though. I'm also hoping a little of the upslope component that BTV mentioned last night for the East facing Greens helps here as well. In any event, more snow has already been laid down and more is in the offing so I couldn't be happier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks like a sleet party from just north of ORH sw thorugh the eastern half of CT. Must be very loud. 100% snow just ne of ORH. 14.1F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Are you still snow down there? Mix of snow and sleet here (mostly sleet) 5 miles north of downtown Springy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 No sleet yet here in Shrewsbury, but I expect to hear the pingers soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I think a sneaky warm layer (or two at MWN!) are retarding any real heavy accumulations, at least around here. Don't feel the need to start pulling soundings, but feel free if I'm wrong. Enjoy the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Off to do some shoveling b/c my mom has to go to work...all this shoveling is killing my back, can't even really bend down. Luckily I'll be going to the doctors sometime this week or next week...so long as I still have insurance. We relly need to toughen you up Paul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Will how much do you have? I'm up in North Chelmsford right now...so not sure about back home in N ORH...but I'll be getting a call when the pellets mix in...I've asked for that bit of info. Looks like the sleet is washing out nearly over the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 exactly, much needed for this snowpack. 6" on top of this Friday night will make for perfect conditions. Conditions are going to be Primo.I'll be out there skiing/machining this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Light snow started here in Portland, ME. Welcome, neighbor! I'm working from home in Scarborough at the moment. Coming down steadily; 14.1F. The kids just got on the bus a few minutes ago, and there's talk of an early release. I think everyone expected this to start 3-4 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 SN- dusting 7f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It was awful last night and has been playing catch up with the low level cold. One storm overperformed after the 0z was run on that big blizzard and people will think now it's a much better model than it is. If it had continued (the storm) to trend as modeled the NAM would have busted a week ago too. It's supposed to do very well with temps, and it struggled again on this one just like it did down here in the big blizzard. Check out the QPF change up in NVT and ENY centered on the 12 hours ending at h27 on the 0z and 15h on the 12z. Yeah yeah I know, dont focus on the QPF but it's being driven/was being driven by phantom dynamics from a bad model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks like 9 of the upcoming 28 arrivals at BDL are cancelled. So far, looks like 13 of 93 departures. Temp climbing slowly but steadily. 14.1/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm up in North Chelmsford right now...so not sure about back home in N ORH...but I'll be getting a call when the pellets mix in...I've asked for that bit of info. Looks like the sleet is washing out nearly over the city. Wow Im JUST north of the sleet. Hope it stays that way. I should change to sleet around the same time you would in North ORH so unless Im out shoveling I'll update the change as well. mod snow now, flake size much smaller, still close to 1"/hour,maybe a little less like .75/hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Conditions are going to be Primo.I'll be out there skiing/machining this afternoon. I'll be flying to Chicago. I really wish I was out there doing some biling. Maybe I'll get out there this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 mixing with snow here again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Welcome, neighbor! I'm working from home in Scarborough at the moment. Coming down steadily; 14.1F. The kids just got on the bus a few minutes ago, and there's talk of an early release. I think everyone expected this to start 3-4 hours later. Coating on vehicles downtown. Commute tonight will be an unmitigated disaster, and that's a 100% forecast verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 One storm overperformed after the 0z was run on that big blizzard and people will think now it's a much better model than it is. If it had continued (the storm) to trend as modeled the NAM would have busted a week ago too. It's supposed to do very well with temps, and it struggled again on this one just like it did down here in the big blizzard. Check out the QPF change up in NVT and ENY centered on the 12 hours ending at h27 on the 0z and 15h on the 12z. Yeah yeah I know, dont focus on the QPF but it's being driven/was being driven by phantom dynamics from a bad model. NAM has been the best model by far with the thermal profile in this storm above the sfc. Its been awful with qpf and too warm with sfc temps, though every single model has been too warm at the sfc...as is usually the case in CAD setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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