moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You and MRG will both end as freezing rain/drizzle..no way around it I still can't help but think that the phase change will be more to IP than zr. Call me crazy, but I'm not sure we'll get the conditions for zr. Certainly not in any significant way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 40% above average is a big, big winter. i want a southern/central connecticut..they are in low elevation too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammerz_nailz Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 up 4 degrees in the last 40 minutes to 22.5 all freezing rain here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I still can't help but think that the phase change will be more to IP than zr. Call me crazy, but I'm not sure we'll get the conditions for zr. Certainly not in any significant way. Basically the depth of the warm layer will go down to 925mb or perhaps a bit lower so (beginning at around 800-825mb)...since this goes down to about 925mb as the precip falls through the beginning of the warm layer it will melt to rain and as it gets towards the sfc it will begin to freeze and this will give us the freezing rain...won't have time to freeze into sleet pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 If it totally stopped precipitating now, with 1.5" of snow, I would be happy rather than having it change to sleet or zr... Looks perfect outside now...but a few larger flakes are mixing in Same here. Just picked up about 1.5" of snow, now the sleet is falling. If temps are only going to rise, I wouldn't mind being stuck in a dryslot for the duration from here out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Alot of snow is still mixing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Just went from heavy snow to ice pellets...3 inches new snow spfd ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Same here. Just picked up about 1.5" of snow, now the sleet is falling. If temps are only going to rise, I wouldn't mind being stuck in a dryslot for the duration from here out. Probably the first time those words were ever posted on AmWx! 2.0" new here Ripping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 same thing just happened here!! 3.5 new Just went from heavy snow to ice pellets...3 inches new snow spfd ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 NAM performing the best right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 fired it up for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 For anyone who either has their own weather station or thermometer it would be very helpful if you could post your temperature as well with any snowfall obs or when there is precip change. Thanks. I'll post this in the obs thread as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 snow to sleet to freezing raing and I see that slot creeping up the jersey coast in the same old fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You guys up north that are flipping over..It'll fight back and forth for awhile and you'll still have snow mixed in. I have a little bit of everything falling right now. Sometimes it goes to almost all snow..then back to a mix.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 up 4 degrees in the last hour to 20 with all sleet right now For anyone who either has their own weather station or thermometer it would be very helpful if you could post your temperature as well with any snowfall obs or when there is precip change. Thanks. I'll post this in the obs thread as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 snow to sleet to freezing raing and I see that slot creeping up the jersey coast in the same old fashion. Hope that slot comes right over me head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Still all snow in Boston with about 1/2" and snowing moderately but it seems the rising temperatures are making a strong push from the southeast. That a coastal front moving in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sleet just started mixing in here in Springfield. About 3 inches of snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I don't see any dry slot at all down there. this isn't a case where we dryslot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 snow starting to mix back in with the sleet temp 16.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Basically the depth of the warm layer will go down to 925mb or perhaps a bit lower so (beginning at around 800-825mb)...since this goes down to about 925mb as the precip falls through the beginning of the warm layer it will melt to rain and as it gets towards the sfc it will begin to freeze and this will give us the freezing rain...won't have time to freeze into sleet pellets. That's the point I'm having troubles with. I think if the surface temps continue very cold, there will be more refreezing prior to landing. I guess I thought/think the cold layer is colder/deeper than you're thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Where is MRG? I told him yesterday outright exactly what would happen today and he basically said I was crazy. This happens more often than not with a southern stream heavy system and no locked-in arctic high THE MAIN DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES IS THAT THE COLUMN IS WARMING QUICKER ALOFT GIVEN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THUS THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS BUT MORE ICING THAN EARLY THOUGHT WITH A QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY ALL RAIN FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN OF RI AND EASTERN MA. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO AN ICE STORM WARNING BUT NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS. I called you crazy because you wanted zr. You said snow and cold get old after the first major snowstorm. Meanwhile it's snowing heavily here with over half a foot still expected. I never contested that your coastal plain (I know you think you're interior but guess again) would not suffer a quick change. Enjoy your zr/rn, you should go out and dance naked in it and revel in it's dripping beauty.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GYX with a slight upgrade for their CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I called you crazy because you wanted zr. You said snow and cold get old after the first major snowstorm. Meanwhile it's snowing heavily here with over half a foot still expected. I never contested that your coastal plain (I know you think you're interior but guess again) would not suffer a quick change. Enjoy your zr/rn, you should go out and dance naked in it and revel in it's dripping beauty.lol He's probably going to change to sleet after you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cannae Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 14.5 degrees, sleet just started mixing in for the first time here. The yellow on the radar must be sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GYX with a slight upgrade for their CWA. While the NAM runs were "meh" for many on this board, I saw them and wondered why an upgrade wouldn't be in order up yonder. I boosted to 5.5-11 inches with about 8 being most likely... Noticing the KLEB number Gray agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 all sleet...17 degrees. snowdepth back up to 17 inch average.... three inches new gives us 31 inches for the season so far here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I called you crazy because you wanted zr. You said snow and cold get old after the first major snowstorm. Meanwhile it's snowing heavily here with over half a foot still expected. I never contested that your coastal plain (I know you think you're interior but guess again) would not suffer a quick change. Enjoy your zr/rn, you should go out and dance naked in it and revel in it's dripping beauty.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 He's probably going to change to sleet after you do. And??? I'll recieve more snow, I started sooner so the duration of snow will be the same or longer here but that is beside the point. The crux of the issue is he was cheering for a change to zr which, while I pointed out was his perogative, I find bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm just glad I'll be staying on the colder side of things to preserve my snow pack, despite the fact that I couldn't care less about a snow pack it is pretty high here and with the potential for another significant storm on Friday it would be awesome to increase the snow pack even more...even though there might not be many places left to put the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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