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Midweek Storm DISCO part II


DomNH

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Well this is actually a blessing. We really needed some ice into the snowpack. Over 2 feet on the ground..locked in with an inch of ice..and then another 8-12 on Friday.

This will be locked in place until late may or so

But won't the rain melt it later in the day and tonight?

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:yikes: still heavy snow here hoping sleet and zr stay to the south for a little bit longer!

I'm 100% positive it was freezing rain here, went outside and the flood light came on and looking it the flood light it was not sleet, it was rain and it's freezing on contact on top of the snow...side roads aren't even plowed yet either.

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Will what are you thoughts about icing here? We are right next to the river...so our elevation is around 220 ft.

That's a tough spot to predict it...I'll bet it goes on for at least a little bit, but the warmer BL temps will be creeping in from the E and SE in that area. We'll have to see when it flips to ZR too obviously...longer period of snow/sleet would reduce the impact of ice.

The models are usually pretty bad at handling these CAD situations and I can confidently say that back into central MA and those areas will be almost impossible to warm above freezing, but your area is definitely always a bit tougher. You're right on that line often of where you go SE and its 38F and then go 5-8 miles NW and its 29-30F.

Its kind of a cop out answer, but it really is tough, lol. I'll bet it does warm above freezing there, but how long that takes is the key.

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There's now some zr mixing in .. But also still some snowflakes along with the sleet..A little bit of everything coming down..17.1 could be quite the ice storm if we can get up to 3/4 of an inch of accretion

I was thinking between 0.50'' and 0.75'' and looking over things a bit this morning I could certainly see some of us getting close to 0.75''...not good considering many have 1-3'' of snow on the ground...although it doesn't appear to have sticked much to trees/power lines.

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Where is MRG? I told him yesterday outright exactly what would happen today and he basically said I was crazy.

This happens more often than not with a southern stream heavy system and no locked-in arctic high

THE MAIN DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES IS THAT THE COLUMN IS

WARMING QUICKER ALOFT GIVEN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THUS

THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS BUT MORE

ICING THAN EARLY THOUGHT WITH A QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND

FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY ALL RAIN FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN OF RI

AND EASTERN MA. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO AN ICE

STORM WARNING BUT NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

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