DomNH Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 This does not have the feel of an ice storm up here for sure. troughiness just keeping it clean for Friday. Was just telling Eric in the other thread, that Friday kinda snuck up on me. Is it a ne deal or is it ma as well? I just noticed Friday about 20 minutes ago . But 4-8'' and ice to get through first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Didn't realized they had added that. It doesn't allow PWS to be entered, though? No, Only 4 letter metars..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I see GYX tweaked the totals from earlier for some..... Man, that's like a bad haircut! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 11.7 free falling now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Kinda surprised BOX didn't give me WSW when they're calling for 4-8" followed by rain and ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 they can always update as things warrant!! They probley just dont want to go bullish for now Kinda surprised BOX didn't give me WSW when they're calling for 4-8" followed by rain and ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 There's no way Portland ever saw 9-10" out of this storm, hands down. That map should definitely have been trimmed. 5-10" lollis to 15" is my call still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 11.7 free falling now! Yeah I wonder how a big of a factor radiating now will be...somehow I don't think WAA gives a crap about how cold it is to start but at the least it will make it more difficult to get to freezing at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 P.S. already below zero here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 kcef down to 7 at last update wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 First chance to really look closely at this system...not sure what the thoughts are by everyone here or the NWS as I kind of like to make thoughts myself before I read NWS so I can at least see if I have the right idea but this seems like an awfully difficult forecast to make...I could kind of see someone get screwed over by freezing rain big time...I know this doesn't look like a screaming freezing rain/significant icing setup but I could certainly see something like this occurring somewhere. With the potential for up to several inches of snowfall accumulation and then icing this could be quite a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks juicy on the radar south o'here. Gotta like the trajectory. Cold is going to win out on this one I believe. More snow vs.sleet here a la GFS. Big Winter incoming, BIG BIG Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 There's no way Portland ever saw 9-10" out of this storm, hands down. That map should definitely have been trimmed. 5-10" lollis to 15" is my call still Pretty much agree regarding that first map. It had like a 1.5" spread across the region. That ain't going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks juicy on the radar south o'here. Gotta like the trajectory. Cold is going to win out on this one I believe. More snow vs.sleet here a la GFS. Big Winter ONGOING, BIG BIG Winter. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 First chance to really look closely at this system...not sure what the thoughts are by everyone here or the NWS as I kind of like to make thoughts myself before I read NWS so I can at least see if I have the right idea but this seems like an awfully difficult forecast to make...I could kind of see someone get screwed over by freezing rain big time...I know this doesn't look like a screaming freezing rain/significant icing setup but I could certainly see something like this occurring somewhere. With the potential for up to several inches of snowfall accumulation and then icing this could be quite a disaster. Paul,do you think we should preemptively mobilze the National Guard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Likely to be an event that demonstrates why in some scenarios we do not need a high PP N... This type of antecedent cold is not being handled well by the other guidance and again, other than the last 2 dicey runs - understandable anyway - the NAM is better for this time and type of intense initial thermal gradient, and where that nexus occurs with jet mechanics aloft will place a sfc, 850 mb centers SE of PVD. If the low goes there everything busts too warm and we get a lot of snow/IP in a short duration. If the low cuts up into the interior, that would be the only way this warms enough to enter other issues. That's just the way is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Fixed. lol, I never want Winter to end. Ongoing suggests that some of Winter has passed. Incoming captures the sense of optimism that exists at the beginning of Winter.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks juicy on the radar south o'here. Gotta like the trajectory. Cold is going to win out on this one I believe. More snow vs.sleet here a la GFS. Big Winter incoming, BIG BIG Winter. ALY's AFD is really good. Talks a lot about the balance of qpf vs p-type in their deicison making (their warning for the Berks is only for 3-8"). Meanwhile, I'm basking in the perpetual nightime warmth here on the hil before basking in Negril on Thursday. 10.3/-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 7/-1, nice and cold ahead of the precip. Thinking we'll end up with 8-12" here. Nice refresher ahead of the next system(s). The W. Ma. crew is looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The W. Ma. crew is looking good. I hinted at this before and the EURO really illustrates my point; I'm not sure that snowfall amounts won't bust high in the western portion of SNE.....GC maybe immune to low level contamination, but the mid levels are impartial to elevation and distance from the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Likely to be an event that demonstrates why in some scenarios we do not need a high PP N... This type of antecedent cold is not being handled well by the other guidance and again, other than the last 2 dicey runs - understandable anyway - the NAM is better for this time and type of intense initial thermal gradient, and where that nexus occurs with jet mechanics aloft will place a sfc, 850 mb centers SE of PVD. If the low goes there everything busts too warm and we get a lot of snow/IP in a short duration. If the low cuts up into the interior, that would be the only way this warms enough to enter other issues. That's just the way is. Alrighty then...no need for further discussion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Paul,do you think we should preemptively mobilze the National Guard? I'm probably going to post as least as possible b/c I know I'm going to bust very badly on any forecast I make but I'll attempt one anyway just so I can at least learn something but I do think there could be some major issues somewhere potentially, accumulating snow then ice is never a good thing. The big questions are how much snow do we get, and how much freezing rain occurs before it changes to rain, if it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The W. Ma. crew is looking good. Definitely - you guys enjoy it! I wish we'd get on it too, but... well, can't complain this year, with the current snowpack. I'm just hoping the damage won't be too bad for us; hard to believe there will be rain, when it's 6pm and down to 12F here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Likely to be an event that demonstrates why in some scenarios we do not need a high PP N... This type of antecedent cold is not being handled well by the other guidance and again, other than the last 2 dicey runs - understandable anyway - the NAM is better for this time and type of intense initial thermal gradient, and where that nexus occurs with jet mechanics aloft will place a sfc, 850 mb centers SE of PVD. If the low goes there everything busts too warm and we get a lot of snow/IP in a short duration. If the low cuts up into the interior, that would be the only way this warms enough to enter other issues. That's just the way is. Great song Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Alrighty then...no need for further discussion... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I hinted at this before and the EURO really illustrates my point; I'm not sure that snowfall amounts won't bust high in the western portion of SNE.....GC maybe immune to low level contamination, but the mid levels are impartial to elevation and distance from the ocean. GFS MOS has just been POUNDING at this up here in KLEB. Makes me nervous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The W. Ma. crew is looking good. Yes, a handsome bunch .Also, it ;looks like we're going to score a good deal more snow over the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I hinted at this before and the EURO really illustrates my point; I'm not sure that snowfall amounts won't bust high in the western portion of SNE.....GC maybe immune to low level contamination, but the mid levels are impartial to elevation and distance from the ocean. A la ALY AFD--they must have read your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Likely to be an event that demonstrates why in some scenarios we do not need a high PP N... This type of antecedent cold is not being handled well by the other guidance and again, other than the last 2 dicey runs - understandable anyway - the NAM is better for this time and type of intense initial thermal gradient, and where that nexus occurs with jet mechanics aloft will place a sfc, 850 mb centers SE of PVD. If the low goes there everything busts too warm and we get a lot of snow/IP in a short duration. If the low cuts up into the interior, that would be the only way this warms enough to enter other issues. That's just the way is. The primary does the dirty work.....I don't care how cold it is to start, e of I 495 will ultimately moderate above freezing; points west are a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 fwiw the hourly ruc keeps coming in colder and colder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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