MaineJayhawk Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Move off the valley floor.lol You're 8" above normal already and more today and Friday. 40% above average is a big, big winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Noone n and w of 95 is getting to 32 for this thing..even tomorrow..hills won't get above 32..heavy heavy damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 That may be mostly snow, but wouldn't be shocked of a few pingers mixed on. Melting layer doesn't seem intense enough to melt the snow as it falls through the layer. Thanks for the response . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Noone n and w of 95 is getting to 32 for this thing..even tomorrow..hills won't get above 32..heavy heavy damage Kevin--what's your take on BDL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 First flakes in mby. 17.1/8. Still targeting Friday. Not enough sleep....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This is starting to look like so many other swfes I have seen in my lifetime. They almost never over produce in the hartford/springfield area and I wish I had a dollar for everytime several inches of snow was forecasted before a changeover and we got less than two inches and often less than an inch. Anything is possible but the downstream obs along the ct coast line reporting snow at four am with relatively high vis is kind of a red flag. the Nyc area seemed to get about one inch to locally two inches before the sleet changeover. My guess is that by the time the real heavy precip gets here the warm nose is already over head and headed well to the north. how disturbing with a low track like this and all this moisture being tapped that we have a retreating high press. So far this winter has only produced one really good snow event in my area so I can most certainly complain. I am waiting to be dazzled by big winter incoming, big big winter. winter total so far before this event 28 inches....normal snowfall for my area through this date 20 inches, nothing too special yet esp considering how little snow fell last year! I'm trying to understand why last winter's lack of snow makes this winter's above normal snow less impressive........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 BTV says it's going with 5-10 inches in their discussion for places that have warnings for 4 to 8... Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Maybe an inch or two late tomorrow and tomorrow night?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 6z gfs def looks like an icestorm for today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Maybe an inch or two late tomorrow and tomorrow night?? Thats a feature that has popped up pretty recently on guidance. It tries to rip another little wave around the base of the trough before it passes E...another inverted trough type feature, lol. But it would probably be a pasty wet snow as the mid-levels have just barely cooled off enough for snow and the low levels probably still kind of warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Maybe an inch or two late tomorrow and tomorrow night?? What's your take for Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 What's your take for Friday? My take is that my p/c has a 70% chance of snow for Friday. Never saw that this far out. Plus, I won't be landing until after it ends. So, lock it up. Seriuosly, htough, it is becoming more impressive. I'm really intrigued by the idea of the GGEM closing it off. It might have some merit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Thats a feature that has popped up pretty recently on guidance. It tries to rip another little wave around the base of the trough before it passes E...another inverted trough type feature, lol. But it would probably be a pasty wet snow as the mid-levels have just barely cooled off enough for snow and the low levels probably still kind of warm. Do you think the hills ever make it above 32..even tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Do you think the hills ever make it above 32..even tomorrow? I'm not sure, it won't be far above freezing if they do. It might be the type of thing where its below freezing until the front comes through and then it actually spikes to 33-34F for a brief time on the W wind. That's happened before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm not sure, it won't be far above freezing if they do. It might be the type of thing where its below freezing until the front comes through and then it actually spikes to 33-34F for a brief time on the W wind. That's happened before. You think sleet will save the day south of the pike or will we get a good deal of zr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You think sleet will save the day south of the pike or will we get a good deal of zr? The NAM is doing a better job so far on thermal profiles so I think ZR is going to be a bigger problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The NAM is doing a better job so far on thermal profiles so I think ZR is going to be a bigger problem. Better prepare the flashlights and charge the cell phones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well hopefully there's not much flooding of drains here. Won't matter to me, I'll land in about 72F around Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Mike mentioned the new BOX graphic earlier ... here it is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The NAM is doing a better job so far on thermal profiles so I think ZR is going to be a bigger problem. Will--that would also have us pretty free of zr and have more of a sn/ip situation, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Already FZRA at BDR/GON/WST and PL at DXR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Slnow/sleet 80/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 16.9.....snow....tiny little flakes. Just outside with the dog. I actually don't anticipate much of a delay unless the snow gets MUCH heavier before mixing/changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm hoping to pull 3-4 out of this before the ice. 4 looks like the most I'll get considering how fast the flip is happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Any folks willing to take their educated assessments (as opposed to mine which would be complete uneducated guess) as to who gets impacted by zr with this here system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Any folks willing to take their educated assessments (as opposed to mine which would be complete uneducated guess) as to who gets impacted by zr with this here system? Pretty much everyone is going to flip to ZR in SNE at some point (save the Cape and Islands)...the interior W of 495 is definitely at most risk for seeing decent ice accretion. Given that the warmer NAM seems to be doing a better job, I think there should be hours and hour of icing for a good chunk of the interior. We'll be watching the obs like a hawk though. A couple extra hours of snow/sleet could really reduce the icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNORH Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 First post at American after seeing Eastern bite the bullet. Very excited about the next two weeks of weather and possibility of 36" snowpack. Only concern now is potential for freezing rain in the hills of northern worcester county. Last time (December 08) was a 2 week hit with no power. Hoping to stay all snow or sleet. Elevation around 1050'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 good to have you! First post at American after seeing Eastern bite the bullet. Very excited about the next two weeks of weather and possibility of 36" snowpack. Only concern now is potential for freezing rain in the hills of northern worcester county. Last time (December 08) was a 2 week hit with no power. Hoping to stay all snow or sleet. Elevation around 1050'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Pretty much everyone is going to flip to ZR in SNE at some point (save the Cape and Islands)...the interior W of 495 is definitely at most risk for seeing decent ice accretion. Given that the warmer NAM seems to be doing a better job, I think there should be hours and hour of icing for a good chunk of the interior. We'll be watching the obs like a hawk though. A couple extra hours of snow/sleet could really reduce the icing. Thanks, Will. I was hoping for your educated assessment. lol I'm thinking we'll need to warm the surface temps considerably after any transition from sn in order to get zr. Otherwise, I think it'll be a sleet-fest. I see a number of flights into/out of BDL are cancelled. Jamaica cancel? 11.4/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Scooter or Will..is that little s/w the Euro has for a quick wet pasting of snow tomorrow evening for all of SNE or just ene? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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