40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Up over a degree in 30 minutes.....3.7\-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 More dynamic cooling involved over eastern New England than a pure SWFE. That will make the difference for Ray and company. GFS looks like a great platform for the storm. Adjust temps based on antecendent conditions and dynamic effects, throw in a bit more moisture, per WV and radar, and we have ourselves a very significant winter storm with a swath of 8-12" of snow across N MA, SW and C NH, with dangerous sleet and freezing rain accumulations across MA, into N CT The dynamic cooling is the key aspect to watch...even on the NAM, its very apparent between 15z and 18z in E MA/SE NH. Notice what happens tot he +1C 850 isothemr on the ewall loop: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ETAPA_0z/etaloop.html If there is more qpf to the east (NAM seems to hold it out of eastern areas for a long time), then the dynamic cooling will probbaly be more impressive and it would be a little snow bomb before the mixing happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Have actually gone from 4 to 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Up over a degree in 30 minutes.....3.7\-1 pvd up to 19 .....beverly 4 S ct. mid 20's. this will be fun to track r-snow line. we really could use a qpf bomb before 20z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 tommorrow right? what's your map say for framingham area...sorry for IMBY but i'm curious. Here it is, with some slight alterations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Up over a degree in 30 minutes.....3.7\-1 Dropped a degree in Oxford in the last hour...really cold and dry air at the surface here....T 18f / Td 3f (-8c & -16c). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 More dynamic cooling involved over eastern New England than a pure SWFE. That will make the difference for Ray and company. GFS looks like a great platform for the storm. Adjust temps based on antecendent conditions and dynamic effects, throw in a bit more moisture, per WV and radar, and we have ourselves a very significant winter storm with a swath of 8-12" of snow across N MA, SW and C NH, with dangerous sleet and freezing rain accumulations across MA, into N CT Going to be a solid front end thump with this one. I'm liking your map from earlier this evening. My area up through you is staying below freezing well into the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Even the 00z RGEM has a track offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Even the 00z RGEM has a track offshore. well at least i can see her now on WV ..nice little hook sig. of myrtle beach....looks like it's hitting accelerator. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 steady light snow now sugar dusting on all surfaces temp down to 20.5 dumping in times square per web cams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 More dynamic cooling involved over eastern New England than a pure SWFE. That will make the difference for Ray and company. GFS looks like a great platform for the storm. Adjust temps based on antecendent conditions and dynamic effects, throw in a bit more moisture, per WV and radar, and we have ourselves a very significant winter storm with a swath of 8-12" of snow across N MA, SW and C NH, with dangerous sleet and freezing rain accumulations across MA, into N CT yes and we hope it doesn't take us from 3c 850 to 1c 850 at 18z'' will precip spread NE over ORH during commute or will it sharp cut off be (west i.e just east. of CT river area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Up in Maine tonight...car thermometer was down to -11 just west of Bangor. Should be a fun ride back to CT tomorrow afternoon. BTW...84 he NAM too wrapped up for my liking. Too warm for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Down to 7 around 11pm, up to 11 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 5.6\2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 EURO stinks....looks like the low end of my 2-5" range it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Euro looks like GFS for temp profiles...but the qpf through 18 hours is very paltry. I cannot imagine its qpf depiction is correct looking at current radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 1-3" tomorrow 5-10" Friday Italy Sunday. Good lineup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Coating on everything already, SN. Should be accumulating quick at 20.0 right now. Feels good...for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 SREF now gives an inch of liquid equiv up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 6z NAM very wet up this way... and it's all snow in KLEB (minus perhaps the very tail end)... oye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 6z NAM stays colder longer for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This run of the NAM presents some SERIOUS icing problems for Litchfield County, northern Hartford County (BDL) and a good chunk of Massachusetts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i think alot of us are in trouble!! AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 353 AM EST TUE JAN 18 2011 .SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion --LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. ANOTHER STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion --00Z MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS TRACKING SLOWLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRES NEAR NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE ON THE EASTERN MOST EDGE OF THE GUID ENVELOPE TRACKING LOW PRES BETWEEN ACK AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. MEANWHILE THE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF AND 21Z SREF ARE CLOSER THE 00Z NAM...FARTHER NW CLOSER TO THE COAST. IN FACT THE NEW 06Z NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN WITH LOW PRES PASSING CLOSE TO ACK. LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONGEST PRES FALLS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF MD AND DE AT 07Z...NOT OFFSHORE. SO A FARTHER NW TRACK SEEMS PLAUSIBLE PER THE NAM/SREF/EC/UKMET. THUS WE BASED THIS FORECAST HEAVILY ON A NON-GFS SOLUTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES IS THAT THE COLUMN IS WARMING QUICKER ALOFT GIVEN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THUS THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS BUT MORE ICING THAN EARLY THOUGHT WITH A QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY ALL RAIN FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN OF RI AND EASTERN MA. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO AN ICE STORM WARNING BUT NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE ONTO THE QUICKER CHANGEOVER WITH BUFR SOUNDING AT KLGA VERIFYING SLEET AT 08Z WITH NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING PROJECTING ABOVE FREEZING LAYER AROUND 850 MB. THIS WILL YIELD A CHANCE OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR THE GREATER HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD AREAS BETWEEN 11Z-13Z...WORCESTER 12Z-14Z...MANCHESTER NH 15Z-17Z. ALSO KEEP IN MIND ONCE SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE M30S FREEZING RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE AS THE GROUND REMAINS FROZEN GIVEN TO A FAIRLY DEEP SNOWCOVER PERSISTING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WARM INTO THE U30S FOR A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. WARNING AND ADVISORY CONFIGURATION WILL REMAIN THE SAME AS PREVIOUSLY POSTED BUT WILL LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS TO 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF UP TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NW MA INTO SW NH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN ON TOP OF THE HEAVY WET SNOW...WITH AN ICE ACCRETION OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY WET SNOW/ICE ACCRETION AND ALREADY WEAKENED/DAMAGED TREES FROM LAST WEEKS SNOWSTORM INCREASES THE RISK OF DOWN LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW FROM LAST WEEKS STORM AND AGAIN TODAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MAY INCREASE THE RISK FOR ROOF COLLAPSES IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. FOR THE ADVISORY AREA A FEW HOURS OF SNOW WILL YIELD 1-3 INCHES WITH A FAIRLY QUICK CHANGE TO SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND THEN ALL RAIN AROUND MIDDAY. FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AS 08Z TEMPS ALREADY 32F AT NANTUCKET AND 34F AT BID WITH ESE WINDS. DO EXPECT POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN TYPE FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY IN RI AND EASTERN MA IN RESPONSE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES ALONG WITH SNOW CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE LATE DAY COMMUTE.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This is going to be massively interesting to see how far that PL line gets... I just followed the darn NAM (Snowy here) in my forecast and hoped it was right. We'll see if that was smart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GYX update leans toward a colder scenario. HAVE MADE MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR TODAY SINCE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BY AROUND 12Z BUT WILL NOT REACH EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS TIL ARND OR AFT 18Z. A STRONG DEEP LAYERED ARCTIC DOME SITS ANCHORED OVER MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MANY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AT THIS TIME. WITH THIS VERY DRY ARCTIC AMS IN PLACE FIND IT VERY HARD TO BELIEVE WAA WILL JUST OVERTAKE COLD DOME IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...ESP SINCE CONSIDERABLE EVAPO COOLING WILL ALSO OCCUR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD AS COLD AIR DAMMING OCCURS SUPPLYING A CONTINUOUS SUPPY OF DRY AND COLD AIR FROM THE N. WILL EXPECT MODELS TO CONTINUE TO ADJUST TO A COLDER SCENERIO. EXPECT MAV TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO REALITY BUT STILL HAD TO LOWER EVEN FURTHER. NOT EXPECTING ANY TEMPS ABV FRZG THIS AFTN OR TNGT. USED HPCQPF FOR THE STORM AND ANY CHANGEOVER WILL BE TO FRZG RN OR SLEET IN THER EVNG OVER SRN AND CSTL AREAS. EXPECTING A HVY BURST OF SNOW TO OCCUR FROM S-N WITH THE WAA PATTERN BUT ONCE AGAIN TEMPS COULD BE A BUST AND MAY STILL BE CONSIDERABLY TO WARM FOR THE DAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This is starting to look like so many other swfes I have seen in my lifetime. They almost never over produce in the hartford/springfield area and I wish I had a dollar for everytime several inches of snow was forecasted before a changeover and we got less than two inches and often less than an inch. Anything is possible but the downstream obs along the ct coast line reporting snow at four am with relatively high vis is kind of a red flag. the Nyc area seemed to get about one inch to locally two inches before the sleet changeover. My guess is that by the time the real heavy precip gets here the warm nose is already over head and headed well to the north. how disturbing with a low track like this and all this moisture being tapped that we have a retreating high press. So far this winter has only produced one really good snow event in my area so I can most certainly complain. I am waiting to be dazzled by big winter incoming, big big winter. winter total so far before this event 28 inches....normal snowfall for my area through this date 20 inches, nothing too special yet esp considering how little snow fell last year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 is this sleet or wet snow? one layer at 33.44... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This is starting to look like so many other swfes I have seen in my lifetime. They almost never over produce in the hartford/springfield area and I wish I had a dollar for everytime several inches of snow was forecasted before a changeover and we got less than two inches and often less than an inch. Anything is possible but the downstream obs along the ct coast line reporting snow at four am with relatively high vis is kind of a red flag. the Nyc area seemed to get about one inch to locally two inches before the sleet changeover. My guess is that by the time the real heavy precip gets here the warm nose is already over head and headed well to the north. how disturbing with a low track like this and all this moisture being tapped that we have a retreating high press. So far this winter has only produced one really good snow event in my area so I can most certainly complain. I am waiting to be dazzled by big winter incoming, big big winter. winter total so far before this event 28 inches....normal snowfall for my area through this date 20 inches, nothing too special yet esp considering how little snow fell last year! Move off the valley floor.lol You're 8" above normal already and more today and Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This is starting to look like so many other swfes I have seen in my lifetime. They almost never over produce in the hartford/springfield area and I wish I had a dollar for everytime several inches of snow was forecasted before a changeover and we got less than two inches and often less than an inch. Anything is possible but the downstream obs along the ct coast line reporting snow at four am with relatively high vis is kind of a red flag. the Nyc area seemed to get about one inch to locally two inches before the sleet changeover. My guess is that by the time the real heavy precip gets here the warm nose is already over head and headed well to the north. how disturbing with a low track like this and all this moisture being tapped that we have a retreating high press. So far this winter has only produced one really good snow event in my area so I can most certainly complain. I am waiting to be dazzled by big winter incoming, big big winter. winter total so far before this event 28 inches....normal snowfall for my area through this date 20 inches, nothing too special yet esp considering how little snow fell last year! I had 1.5" of snow before it changed to sleet/freezing rain, and I like about 25 miles north of Central Park...it's definitely cold at the surface though, so you might be in for a lot of icing. Still only 25.3F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 is this sleet or wet snow? one layer at 33.44... That may be mostly snow, but wouldn't be shocked of a few pingers mixed on. Melting layer doesn't seem intense enough to melt the snow as it falls through the layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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