40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 No argument. But it shows how jaded you've become....lol. I didn't complain one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i would add that in addition to looking at HV around 12z and the surrounding areas .....seeing how the qpf/radar returns are matched up compared to the models is a big deal for accums IMO...seems most models take the pike to wintry mix crap by 1-3pm and rte 2 from 1-5 (w to east) ...so let's see if we can get a qpf thump by 17z (noon) i think most models have a decent dividing line between say the have's and havenot's from somewhere between quabbin res. and 495 thru 18z ...regarding the .25 -.50 line.. so that could be just as important it may seem as when the mixing occurs Thank god you went back and bolded that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I recall a couple of note in my 30 years....the worst occuring in March of 1990. GFS consistent on SECS for Friday....4-8" deal....most in ne MA think we're 6+. This is a 12/13/07 like snow event. Very juicy and very cold at the same time. GFS 0.5-0.75 and probably will be about or a tad drier vs Euro. Here's your flag... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I didn't complain one bit. Not in that sense....the fact that we've had some big events. 6-12 is now ho hum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 think we're 6+. This is a 12/13/07 like snow event. Very juicy and very cold at the same time. GFS 0.5-0.75 and probably will be about or a tad drier vs Euro. Here's your flag... The 0c H85 line remained in N CT for that one.....I'm not sure how the NOGAPS is a flag.....no one is calling for a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I don't feel too much stress here because regardess of what happens, Friday is the big deal anyway. The NAM is going crazy with it now. Thank god you went back and bolded that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Westborough is usually a tick colder, I've travelled to westborough from the west and its been rain into millbury and grafton and then its ice in westborough yup them in marlborough (i read) lost a lot of power in 08... NW marlborough especially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Not in that sense....the fact that we've had some big events. 6-12 is now ho hum. That is a preconceived notion on your part; you are making inferences based upon how I have felt in the past. I have said a million times that I am all for mod events now that we have a HECS laid down. Yet Ginx calls me out for bing redundant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The 0c H85 line remained in N CT for that one.....I'm not sure how the NOGAPS is a flag.....no one is calling for a whiff. This is a quasi SWFE event. We'll see how it plays out. The low going under us is dangerous. Maybe a better analog is 12/31/08? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Thank god you went back and bolded that. drop a db on your foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 That is a preconceived notion on your part; you are making inferences based upon how I have felt int he past. I have said a million times that I am all for mod events now that we have a HECS laid down. Yet Ginx calls me out for bing redundant. No you're missing my point again. 6-12 a year ago would be considered a MECS. This year, it's rather pedestrian. And I agree. Yet we all are happy to have it. It's just your language suggested that a more modest event was your ceiling until you threw these numbers out. Either way, a warning event seems probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I don't feel too much stress here because regardess of what happens, Friday is the big deal anyway. The NAM is going crazy with it now. I'll take the EURO and GFS over the extrapolated 84 hr NAM, Rick......every day and twice on MLK Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 No you're missing my point again. 6-12 a year ago would be considered a MECS. This year, it's rather pedestrian. And I agree. Yet we all are happy to have it. It's just your language suggested that a more modest event was your ceiling until you threw these numbers out. Either way, a warning event seems probable. Nah, 4-8" has always been pedestrian to me...ask Will....I complained about them during the Nina seasons. I wanted a HECS and got one.....fire the low-end warnings away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 has everyone in mass temp bottomed out.....save say haverhill or something....ray looksl like your startin to cloud over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'll enjoy tracking the P type line tomorrow. We haven't had one like that yet so it will be fun. Each one is different and challenging in it's own way. You don't always need a SECS, etc. Also it will be nice to have an event where I'm not 50 miles from the trace line and biting my nails... No you're missing my point again. 6-12 a year ago would be considered a MECS. This year, it's rather pedestrian. And I agree. Yet we all are happy to have it. It's just your language suggested that a more modest event was your ceiling until you threw these numbers out. Either way, a warning event seems probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 2.6\-3 Wow... that is a COLD temp. for anytime, but before midnight.... dat's just crazy cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Bottomed out about 10 minutes ago at 2.6\-3....up to 2.8\-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Bottomed out about 10 minutes ago at 2.6\-3....up to 2.8\-2 Uh, oh...will be 32.1F in no time now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 My temps moving up. But I promise to behave. Now I have to sleep...early departure tomorrow wx permitting. Either way...probably have to go through the motion of getting to the airport. I'm on board for 6-12 Friday. GFS has 984 going inside the BM in a very cold airmass producing greater than 0.5 qpf. That can add up. I know jack about snow growth that day but in any case, a good snow again is on the way. Winter rocks on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Uh, oh...will be 32.1F in no time now It will and I won't bi**.....it's expected. 2.9\-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I dunno about the Euro, but I still feel like the GFS is catching up here...sluggish in phasing in the southern stream vort. In my experience when the 84 hour NAM looks like a disorganized piece of crap it is usually trying to get too perfect with it's high reslution and competing s/w's etc. When it leads the way with a phased bomb then I take notice. Not to say it can't be a bit too extreme here. I'll take the EURO and GFS over the extrapolated 84 hr NAM, Rick......every day and twice on MLK Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Uh, oh...will be 32.1F in no time now we should set the over/under . i say 230pm. if this low takes it's sweet time to amount to anything would this ease BL advancement west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Wow... that is a COLD temp. for anytime, but before midnight.... dat's just crazy cold! are you in danbury ....looks like weenie flakes may be a flyin there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I dunno about the Euro, but I still feel like the GFS is catching up here...sluggish in phasing in the southern stream vort. In my experience when the 84 hour NAM looks like a disorganized piece of crap it is usually trying to get too perfect with it's high reslution and competing s/w's etc. When it leads the way with a phased bomb then I take notice. Not to say it can't be a bit too extreme here. Hedging more gung-ho on a more complete\faster phase without overwheling evidence (even then it can fall apart up until the last moment) is never wise, but I hope you're right. I'm fine with a 6" event Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'll enjoy tracking the P type line tomorrow. We haven't had one like that yet so it will be fun. Each one is different and challenging in it's own way. You don't always need a SECS, etc. Also it will be nice to have an event where I'm not 50 miles from the trace line and biting my nails... Agreed, gonna' be a fun day for wx watching in W. Ma. E. NY All of the local broadcast mets at 11pm were bullish on 4-8" of snow up and down the valley. 9.9/2 Up 2 degrees in the past 90 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 More dynamic cooling involved over eastern New England than a pure SWFE. That will make the difference for Ray and company. GFS looks like a great platform for the storm. Adjust temps based on antecendent conditions and dynamic effects, throw in a bit more moisture, per WV and radar, and we have ourselves a very significant winter storm with a swath of 8-12" of snow across N MA, SW and C NH, with dangerous sleet and freezing rain accumulations across MA, into N CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 1156 first flakes are flying, good luck to everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 More dynamic cooling involved over eastern New England than a pure SWFE. That will make the difference for Ray and company. GFS looks like a great platform for the storm. Adjust temps based on antecendent conditions and dynamic effects, throw in a bit more moisture, per WV and radar, and we have ourselves a very significant winter storm with a swath of 8-12" of snow across N MA, SW and C NH, with dangerous sleet and freezing rain accumulations across MA, into N CT tommorrow right? what's your map say for framingham area...sorry for IMBY but i'm curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I feel quite, quite confident after viewing all the data that 5 inches is the minimum here, KLEB, (unless there's some upper level warming unseen). GFS MOS is a 4 and a 1, NAM MOS is a 6. Both models have .6 liquid+ of snow. Suny mm5 shows similar (if not slightly higher). RGEM looks similar... Overall feeling quite confident. Maybe someone will get a 12 out of this... Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 And so it begins.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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