ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Actually is cold in the low levels....only looked at the mid levels. KBED sounding at 18z tomorrow (1pm)....not even close to mixing. One model is going to be really wrong between the 00z NAM and 00z GFS....or maybe they'll split the difference, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 help mw out if I am reading it correctly for mht I stay all frozen? Yes. 2.9\-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS is warmer at 850 in this run, most noticeable at HR 24 and 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 No it doesn't...still liking the snow idea, though not as cold as the outrageous 18z run. Its sfc temps are what is surprising to me....it usually has a very tough time holding in the cold sfc temps on an ageostrophic N wind given its lousy resolution, but it keeps temps in the upper 20s through 18z all the way to Rt 128. Hard to believe it but you guys with a GFS correct, to me, thermal profile ,and a NAM correct to me, QPF,look like ice could be sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 KBED sounding at 18z tomorrow (1pm)....not even close to mixing. One model is going to be really wrong between the 00z NAM and 00z GFS....or maybe they'll split the difference, who knows. Gotta try to get in early so I can leave early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 mm5 has it tucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 mm5 has it tucked Its cold though despite the closer track....amazing that is has below freezing to the sfc getting inside Rt 128 at 18z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS is terrible; this event is a disaster. Just hope for the low end of my range. I get like 4'' of snow followed by advisory zr...banging it hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 What does the AMEXWRF look like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Its cold though despite the closer track....amazing that is has below freezing to the sfc getting inside Rt 128 at 18z tomorrow that looks like 128 is barely in the clear. i'm 4 miles east of 495 and that frz line is about 3 -4 miles east of me....smack dap in between 128 and 495. that looks like between 128-495 to me ....with the exception of perhaps a sliver of w. lexington, ma. maybe splitting hairs but.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 that looks like 128 is mostly in the clear. i'm 4 miles east of 495 and that frz line is about 3 -4 miles east of me....smack dap in between 128 and 495. that looks like between 128-495 to me ....with the exception of perhaps a sliver of w. lexington, ma. Looks like I will be right on the border in Concord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Its cold though despite the closer track....amazing that is has below freezing to the sfc getting inside Rt 128 at 18z tomorrow NAM overdone probably...at least some snow you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 00z GFS would be heavy heavy snow for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 that looks like 128 is barely in the clear. i'm 4 miles east of 495 and that frz line is about 3 -4 miles east of me....smack dap in between 128 and 495. that looks like between 128-495 to me ....with the exception of perhaps a sliver of w. lexington, ma. maybe splitting hairs but.. You're probably right after further examination with a magnifying glass. But even if it did go to 128, it would probably be too cold...or quite transient. Icing is usually not a big deal inside of 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks like I will be right on the border in Concord Gets to manchester by 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You're probably right after further examination with a magnifying glass. But even if it did go to 128, it would probably be too cold...or quite transient. Icing is usually not a big deal inside of 495. well KBED sounding was not even close to mixing at 18z so hopefully the snow is still flying along 128 at 1pm and temps are around 32. but i know by early evening the area just west of this hill on rte 9 transitioning into westborough gets stays pretty cold (on several occasions) ......a couple miles west of 495...i think westborough may be a good dividing line for FZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 well KBED sounding was not even close to mixing at 18z so hopefully the snow is still flying along 128 at 1pm and temps are around 32. but i know by early evening the area just west of this hill on rte 9 transitioning into westborough gets stays pretty cold (on several occasions) ......a couple miles west of 495...i think westborough may be a good dividing line for FZR. The place to look tomorrow morning around 12z is the lower Hudson Valley and into NE PA and maybe extreme NNJ/NW NJ and over to W CT....if its snowing there still then the GFS is handily beating the NAM at that time...NAM had sleet/ZR all the way up to MA/CT border by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You're probably right after further examination with a magnifying glass. But even if it did go to 128, it would probably be too cold...or quite transient. Icing is usually not a big deal inside of 495. Right, climo renders it unnecessary to go over models with a fine tooth comb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Right, climo renders it unnecessary to go over models with a fine tooth comb. I only remember one icing event in southie in all of my 20 years there. It was last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I think a 6-12" deal is probably the ceiling. No argument. But it shows how jaded you've become....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I only remember one icing event in southie in all of my 20 years there. It was last year. I recall a couple of note in my 30 years....the worst occuring in March of 1990. GFS consistent on SECS for Friday....4-8" deal....most in ne MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Got quite a few people on the HV thread on the Upstate Side now...so no doubt they will have it covered early tomorrow. Up to 7F here now as clouds have come in more. Humidity is 69%. The place to look tomorrow morning around 12z is the lower Hudson Valley and into NE PA and maybe extreme NNJ/NW NJ and over to W CT....if its snowing there still then the GFS is handily beating the NAM at that time...NAM had sleet/ZR all the way up to MA/CT border by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The place to look tomorrow morning around 12z is the lower Hudson Valley and into NE PA and maybe extreme NNJ/NW NJ and over to W CT....if its snowing there still then the GFS is handily beating the NAM at that time...NAM had sleet/ZR all the way up to MA/CT border by 12z. Who do you think wins Will? I'm trying to make a forecast for DXR but it's just so borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 2.6\-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Gets to manchester by 24 I was talking about Concord, MA...but I do think that Concord, NH will mix some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Right, climo renders it unnecessary to go over models with a fine tooth comb. your right about icing...esp. where max icing begins.....i totally agree on that.....although for a few hours tommorrow afternoon i think i could see a skating rink.....i remember i did earlier this year ....either late nov or early dec. some old lady fell in parkin lot and my dog nearly broke her hip.....lasted for 3 or so hour.......then it settled in just west of 495 by northborough.....westborough.....marlborough...etc for another 6 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Who do you think wins Will? I'm trying to make a forecast for DXR but it's just so borderline. The NAM is probably too warm...but I'd like to see a little more 00z data. GFS was obviously much colder. RGEM and SUNY mm5 while a little more toward the NAM sfc track were still colder in the mid-levels than the NAM...and the sfc for that matter. Figuring out just how too warm the NAM is will make a big difference...even if we get the general idea correct that it is too warm. But who knows, it might not be. Keeping close track of upstream obs will be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 your right about icing...esp. where max icing begins.....i totally agree on that.....although for a few hours tommorrow afternoon i think i could see a skating rink.....i remember i did earlier this year ....either late nov or early dec. some old lady fell in parkin lot and my dog nearly broke her hip.....lasted for 3 or so hour.......then it settled in just west of 495 by northborough.....westborough.....marlborough...etc for another 6 or so. Well, even where you are is more prone to icing than my locale.....you're well west of rt 128. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 but i know by early evening the area just west of this hill on rte 9 transitioning into westborough gets stays pretty cold (on several occasions) ......a couple miles west of 495...i think westborough may be a good dividing line for FZR. Westborough is usually a tick colder, I've travelled to westborough from the west and its been rain into millbury and grafton and then its ice in westborough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i would add that in addition to looking at HV around 12z and the surrounding areas .....seeing how the qpf/radar returns are matched up compared to the models is a big deal for accums IMO...seems most models take the pike to wintry mix crap by 1-3pm and rte 2 from 1-5 (w to east) ...so let's see if we can get a qpf thump by 17z (noon) i think most models have a decent dividing line between say the have's and havenot's from somewhere between quabbin res. and 495 In ne mass) thru 18z ...regarding the .25 -.50 line.. so that could be just as important it may seem as when the mixing occurs ....like to see that suprise to the upside during the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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