Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 My sarcasm detector is having trouble on this one No I am serious, I can see SR with higher amounts and within your range, heavy leg burning cement snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I mean with freezing rain setups...such as mesoscale features and temps. That's why I tried to make the difference between that and mid levels. Oh, ok....at this range, yea.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 3.3\-2 and yet to bottom out; should within the hour.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sweet, yea SR always jackpots in SWFE with coastal popping, good call for your area Jay You think? SR jackpots are pretty rare great snow conditions, but one of the lower avg snowfall of majors in NE(167 inches annually per sundayriver.com) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i have a friend just north of DC...says it's 26 with rain and ice pellets...dang those midlevels...coastal plain in Mass tomorrow won't hold snow for long tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 No I am serious, I can see SR with higher amounts and within your range, heavy leg burning cement snow. Okie dokie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I think the reason why the 00z NAM is so warm, is because it's not giving us the dynamic cooling that 18z had, and it is keeping the precip out west. Look at the 24 hr qpf from 18z and 00z. HUUUGE difference...lol. Lack of lift is allowing the 850 levels to torch on the 00z run. This is the big difference I think. 18z 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 LOL Fair enough. I'm not huge on Friday.....GFS and EURO have it developing a bit too late to be a huge deal and that is the way I'd lean, for now. Both Euro and GFS have grown more robust with each run. This is not a wrapped up low. It is overrunning which won't be dynamic but can dump some pretty hefty snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i have a friend just north of DC...says it's 26 with rain and ice pellets...dang those midlevels...coastal plain in Mass tomorrow won't hold snow for long tomorrow... he said it snowed for all of 20minutes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You think? SR jackpots are pretty rare great snow conditions, but one of the lower avg snowfall of majors in NE Huh, this setup is a SR special, they average less because they do not get the 40 inch upslopes the Green do. , probably why their base is there so long after Stowe etc is closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Both Euro and GFS have grown more robust with each run. This is not a wrapped up low. It is overrunning which won't be dynamic but can dump some pretty hefty snows. I think a 6-12" deal is probably the ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Huh, this setup is a SR special, they average less because they do not get the 40 inch upslopes the Green do. , probably why there base is there long after Stowe etc is closed. What is SR? It's been mentioned numerous times... I'm gathering it's a river ® and probably in vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 What is SR? It's been mentioned numerous times... I'm gathering it's a river ® and probably in vermont. Sunday River, ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Snow probs are lousy on the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Snowing good in central jersey per NJDOT traffic cams... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i think the big Question for accums...seeing that mid levels may warm ahead of time...is wether this initial THUMP of QPF >>>>>gets in here early! I would lean toward an area from about ORH s to GINX and westward possibly getting in on the snow by 2-3 am from S to N. and it looks like it could try and pile up esp between the quabbin -tolland and west to GC...in the wee hours. just saying. after 8-10 am mid levels look like they may torch. so depending on east ward extent of precip heading..north with the first dump ..i.e qpf thru 13z-15 (s to n) that's what i would peg for Snowfall for SNE. ....after that taint and rain (marching toward 495) Danbury 4 (snowing by 1 am) Pete 7 (mid level warm fast S-N) MPM (6) Tolland (3) Orh (4) Fitchburg (4) Greenfield ( 4) PVD trace (KGAY) 2 (depends on qpf thru 15z) (Me) 2 SE nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sunday River, ME Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Snow probs are lousy on the SREFs. Yea, looking more like the lower end of my range, tonight....who knows, maybe Jay is right. This event blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I think the reason why the 00z NAM is so warm, is because it's not giving us the dynamic cooling that 18z had, and it is keeping the precip out west. Look at the 24 hr qpf from 18z and 00z. HUUUGE difference...lol. Lack of lift is allowing the 850 levels to torch on the 00z run. This is the big difference I think. 18z 00Z. Its gonna be close...even the warm 00z NAM had the warm layer extremely thin. This is a pretty nerve wracking forecast for my clients...there could be 6" of snow in the ORH hills then some sleet and only some minor to low end moderate icing....or there could be only 2-3" of snow followed by a significant icing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well, GFS does not look like the nam........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Its gonna be close...even the warm 00z NAM had the warm layer extremely thin. This is a pretty nerve wracking forecast for my clients...there could be 6" of snow in the ORH hills then some sleet and only some minor to low end moderate icing....or there could be only 2-3" of snow followed by a significant icing event. Yea tough tough call for CMASS NTCt , juiced up system, like I said before utility Chiefs not liking that NAM depiction, could be sig power implications. My thoughts are it has the precip too tight and high, spread that out, cool it down, seeing trouble if it is not sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well, GFS does not look like the nam........ No it doesn't...still liking the snow idea, though not as cold as the outrageous 18z run. Its sfc temps are what is surprising to me....it usually has a very tough time holding in the cold sfc temps on an ageostrophic N wind given its lousy resolution, but it keeps temps in the upper 20s through 18z all the way to Rt 128. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS is terrible; this event is a disaster. Just hope for the low end of my range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Huh, this setup is a SR special, they average less because they do not get the 40 inch upslopes the Green do. , probably why their base is there so long after Stowe etc is closed. Man made outlasts natural every time + latitude and favorable exposure for the late season we'll see, I said cannon jackpots here and they get 165" year so my call there doesn't pass my test anyway, was a dumb post btw they're already at 128" this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave5 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 How much snow are we looking at for the Central CT area. Chances we get any significant icing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 How much snow are we looking at for the Central CT area. Chances we get any significant icing? 2-3 some ice the farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Actually is cold in the low levels....only looked at the mid levels. 3.0\-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 No it doesn't...still liking the snow idea, though not as cold as the outrageous 18z run. Its sfc temps are what is surprising to me....it usually has a very tough time holding in the cold sfc temps on an ageostrophic N wind given its lousy resolution, but it keeps temps in the upper 20s through 18z all the way to Rt 128. Yeah, Nam is tracking this low much closer to the coast wrapping in warmer air in the mid levels while the GFS is further east and trying to hold the cold air in all the way to the coast, I guess we wait on the euro for some consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 help mw out if I am reading it correctly for mht I stay all frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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