Rainshadow Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 If the consistent cold truly cancels out the gfs was a frickin disaster in the details of the general pattern...had the euro not bit for a couple runs and went with the gfs' locked in phase it would have scored the coup since it was pretty much by itself. The trend this winter may be "just ten days away" again. As of today, its still a borderline moderate/strong la nina winter, enuf said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 12th/00z.....7 pm 27th...rest n/a 12th/12z.....7 am 25th....rest n/a 13th/00z.....7 am 24th....rest n/a 13th/12z.....7 pm 24th........520....7 am 29th end of run 14th/00z.....7 pm 27th.......520....7 am 28th...none thru end of run 14th/12z.....7 am 26th.......513....7 pm 27th...7 pm 29th 15th/00z.....7 am 27th.......516....7 am 28th...none thru end of run 15th/12z.....7 am 27th.......510....7 am 29th...none thru end of run (12z 12/1) 16th/00z.....7 pm 26th......513 7 am 28th....none thru end of run (00z 12/2) 16th/12z.....7 pm 26th......518 7 am 30th....none thru end of run (12z 12/2) 17th/00z.....7 pm 26th......509 7 am 30th....none thru end of run (00z 12/3) 17th/12z.....7 pm 26th......510 7 pm 27th....none thru end of run (12z 12/3) 18th/00z.....7 am 26th.......518 7 am 1st....none thru end of run (00z 12/4) 18th/12z.....7 am 26th ......516 7 pm 28th....7 pm 3rd 19th/00z.....10 pm 25th......514 7 pm 27th....none thru end of run (00z 12/5) 19th/12z.....10 am 26th......512 7 am 27th....7 am 2nd 20th/00z.....1 am 26th........519 7 am 26th......7 am 5th 20th/12z.....4 am 26th.......525 7 am 26th....7 pm 27th, 12" of snow first 5 days in Dec. 21st/00z.....4 pm 26th.........516 10 pm 26th.....7 pm 29th 21st/12z.....10 pm 26th.......528 10 am 27th.....1 pm 28th...quite cold the 3rd thru the end on the 7th 22nd/00z....none until December 1st. 22nd/12z....none until December 1st, about a foot of snow on 12/6. 23rd/00z.....none until December 2nd, about a foot of snow on 12/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 12th/00z.....7 pm 27th...rest n/a 12th/12z.....7 am 25th....rest n/a 13th/00z.....7 am 24th....rest n/a 13th/12z.....7 pm 24th........520....7 am 29th end of run 14th/00z.....7 pm 27th.......520....7 am 28th...none thru end of run 14th/12z.....7 am 26th.......513....7 pm 27th...7 pm 29th 15th/00z.....7 am 27th.......516....7 am 28th...none thru end of run 15th/12z.....7 am 27th.......510....7 am 29th...none thru end of run (12z 12/1) 16th/00z.....7 pm 26th......513 7 am 28th....none thru end of run (00z 12/2) 16th/12z.....7 pm 26th......518 7 am 30th....none thru end of run (12z 12/2) 17th/00z.....7 pm 26th......509 7 am 30th....none thru end of run (00z 12/3) 17th/12z.....7 pm 26th......510 7 pm 27th....none thru end of run (12z 12/3) 18th/00z.....7 am 26th.......518 7 am 1st....none thru end of run (00z 12/4) 18th/12z.....7 am 26th ......516 7 pm 28th....7 pm 3rd 19th/00z.....10 pm 25th......514 7 pm 27th....none thru end of run (00z 12/5) 19th/12z.....10 am 26th......512 7 am 27th....7 am 2nd 20th/00z.....1 am 26th........519 7 am 26th......7 am 5th 20th/12z.....4 am 26th.......525 7 am 26th....7 pm 27th, 12" of snow first 5 days in Dec. 21st/00z.....4 pm 26th.........516 10 pm 26th.....7 pm 29th 21st/12z.....10 pm 26th.......528 10 am 27th.....1 pm 28th...quite cold the 3rd thru the end on the 7th 22nd/00z....none until December 1st. 22nd/12z....none until December 1st, about a foot of snow on 12/6. 23rd/00z.....none until December 2nd, about a foot of snow on 12/6. 23rd/12z....none until December 1st, now a lakes cutter 24th/00z....none til December 7th, advisory snow 12/7 24th/12z....none until December 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 12th/00z.....7 pm 27th...rest n/a 12th/12z.....7 am 25th....rest n/a 13th/00z.....7 am 24th....rest n/a 13th/12z.....7 pm 24th........520....7 am 29th end of run 14th/00z.....7 pm 27th.......520....7 am 28th...none thru end of run 14th/12z.....7 am 26th.......513....7 pm 27th...7 pm 29th 15th/00z.....7 am 27th.......516....7 am 28th...none thru end of run 15th/12z.....7 am 27th.......510....7 am 29th...none thru end of run (12z 12/1) 16th/00z.....7 pm 26th......513 7 am 28th....none thru end of run (00z 12/2) 16th/12z.....7 pm 26th......518 7 am 30th....none thru end of run (12z 12/2) 17th/00z.....7 pm 26th......509 7 am 30th....none thru end of run (00z 12/3) 17th/12z.....7 pm 26th......510 7 pm 27th....none thru end of run (12z 12/3) 18th/00z.....7 am 26th.......518 7 am 1st....none thru end of run (00z 12/4) 18th/12z.....7 am 26th ......516 7 pm 28th....7 pm 3rd 19th/00z.....10 pm 25th......514 7 pm 27th....none thru end of run (00z 12/5) 19th/12z.....10 am 26th......512 7 am 27th....7 am 2nd 20th/00z.....1 am 26th........519 7 am 26th......7 am 5th 20th/12z.....4 am 26th.......525 7 am 26th....7 pm 27th, 12" of snow first 5 days in Dec. 21st/00z.....4 pm 26th.........516 10 pm 26th.....7 pm 29th 21st/12z.....10 pm 26th.......528 10 am 27th.....1 pm 28th...quite cold the 3rd thru the end on the 7th 22nd/00z....none until December 1st. 22nd/12z....none until December 1st, about a foot of snow on 12/6. 23rd/00z.....none until December 2nd, about a foot of snow on 12/6. 23rd/12z....none until December 1st, now a lakes cutter 24th/00z....none til December 7th, advisory snow 12/7 24th/12z....none until December 5th this thread is becoming depressing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 this thread is becoming depressing lol I plan on bagging this when the initial intent of the coldest thickness in this upcoming weekend occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 This thread speaks volumes with regards to cold air advection postponement. Sooner or later on of these dates will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 Getting near to the end of this dead horse. Happy Thanksgiving everyone. 12th/00z.....7 pm 27th...rest n/a 12th/12z.....7 am 25th....rest n/a 13th/00z.....7 am 24th....rest n/a 13th/12z.....7 pm 24th........520....7 am 29th end of run 14th/00z.....7 pm 27th.......520....7 am 28th...none thru end of run 14th/12z.....7 am 26th.......513....7 pm 27th...7 pm 29th 15th/00z.....7 am 27th.......516....7 am 28th...none thru end of run 15th/12z.....7 am 27th.......510....7 am 29th...none thru end of run (12z 12/1) 16th/00z.....7 pm 26th......513 7 am 28th....none thru end of run (00z 12/2) 16th/12z.....7 pm 26th......518 7 am 30th....none thru end of run (12z 12/2) 17th/00z.....7 pm 26th......509 7 am 30th....none thru end of run (00z 12/3) 17th/12z.....7 pm 26th......510 7 pm 27th....none thru end of run (12z 12/3) 18th/00z.....7 am 26th.......518 7 am 1st....none thru end of run (00z 12/4) 18th/12z.....7 am 26th ......516 7 pm 28th....7 pm 3rd 19th/00z.....10 pm 25th......514 7 pm 27th....none thru end of run (00z 12/5) 19th/12z.....10 am 26th......512 7 am 27th....7 am 2nd 20th/00z.....1 am 26th........519 7 am 26th......7 am 5th 20th/12z.....4 am 26th.......525 7 am 26th....7 pm 27th, 12" of snow first 5 days in Dec. 21st/00z.....4 pm 26th.........516 10 pm 26th.....7 pm 29th 21st/12z.....10 pm 26th.......528 10 am 27th.....1 pm 28th...quite cold the 3rd thru the end on the 7th 22nd/00z....none until December 1st. 22nd/12z....none until December 1st, about a foot of snow on 12/6. 23rd/00z.....none until December 2nd, about a foot of snow on 12/6. 23rd/12z....none until December 1st, now a lakes cutter 24th/00z....none til December 7th, advisory snow 12/7 24th/12z....none until December 5th 25th/00z....12/1 & again 12/6 25th/12z...12/1 & again 12/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 Does anyone want me to do future threads on this around pattern change times? Its not that hard to even go back 7 days. The results may be painful though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Does anyone want me to do future threads on this around pattern change times? Its not that hard to even go back 7 days. The results may be painful though. As depressing as it is, its pretty informative on how much the gfs has blown. Maybe change it up, like post first sub 530 thickness and the lowest thickness for the run. Then go back and see how the run verified once those days approach. Would be pretty neat to see how off it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 As depressing as it is, its pretty informative on how much the gfs has blown. Maybe change it up, like post first sub 530 thickness and the lowest thickness for the run. Then go back and see how the run verified once those days approach. Would be pretty neat to see how off it is. Tom, OK, except, I have to start ratcheting it down, 530 thickness this time of year should occur "normally". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Tom, OK, except, I have to start ratcheting it down, 530 thickness this time of year should occur "normally". Lol except, this isn't a normal year. Ill help ya out, you can focus on the 530 thickness, ill post the lowest thickness of the run. Is there a site that shows what the lowest thickness occurs on the run? I have the 16 day metostar of the gfs run saved on my computer as a favorite, but thats every 3 hrs, should we go by that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 Lol except, this isn't a normal year. Ill help ya out, you can focus on the 530 thickness, ill post the lowest thickness of the run. Is there a site that shows what the lowest thickness occurs on the run? I have the 16 day metostar of the gfs run saved on my computer as a favorite, but thats every 3 hrs, should we go by that? Yeah, that's what I was using. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Yeah, that's what I was using. start at 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 start at 0z? Last night or tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Last night or tonight? tonight...How do you want to do this, all 4 runs, or just the 0z and 12z. Also, should we do a separate thread or keep this? I can do a tally of the lowest thicknesses and you can do the lower than 530 thickness dates. How do we verify the thickness, like what site has thicknesses that occured... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 tonight...How do you want to do this, all 4 runs, or just the 0z and 12z. Also, should we do a separate thread or keep this? I can do a tally of the lowest thicknesses and you can do the lower than 530 thickness dates. How do we verify the thickness, like what site has thicknesses that occured... How about start a new thread? I'd prefer just the sounding runs, keep some of the noise out of it. I'll probably pop in from time to time, its easier since we're mainly out in the longer range, tonight I know I'm going to be busy with the ice and watching out for the wind. We can just edit each other's info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 How about start a new thread? I'd prefer just the sounding runs, keep some of the noise out of it. I'll probably pop in from time to time, its easier since we're mainly out in the longer range, tonight I know I'm going to be busy with the ice and watching out for the wind. We can just edit each other's info. can we do that, edit each others post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 27, 2010 Author Share Posted November 27, 2010 12th/00z.....7 pm 27th...rest n/a 12th/12z.....7 am 25th....rest n/a 13th/00z.....7 am 24th....rest n/a 13th/12z.....7 pm 24th........520....7 am 29th end of run 14th/00z.....7 pm 27th.......520....7 am 28th...none thru end of run 14th/12z.....7 am 26th.......513....7 pm 27th...7 pm 29th 15th/00z.....7 am 27th.......516....7 am 28th...none thru end of run 15th/12z.....7 am 27th.......510....7 am 29th...none thru end of run (12z 12/1) 16th/00z.....7 pm 26th......513 7 am 28th....none thru end of run (00z 12/2) 16th/12z.....7 pm 26th......518 7 am 30th....none thru end of run (12z 12/2) 17th/00z.....7 pm 26th......509 7 am 30th....none thru end of run (00z 12/3) 17th/12z.....7 pm 26th......510 7 pm 27th....none thru end of run (12z 12/3) 18th/00z.....7 am 26th.......518 7 am 1st....none thru end of run (00z 12/4) 18th/12z.....7 am 26th ......516 7 pm 28th....7 pm 3rd 19th/00z.....10 pm 25th......514 7 pm 27th....none thru end of run (00z 12/5) 19th/12z.....10 am 26th......512 7 am 27th....7 am 2nd 20th/00z.....1 am 26th........519 7 am 26th......7 am 5th 20th/12z.....4 am 26th.......525 7 am 26th....7 pm 27th, 12" of snow first 5 days in Dec. 21st/00z.....4 pm 26th.........516 10 pm 26th.....7 pm 29th 21st/12z.....10 pm 26th.......528 10 am 27th.....1 pm 28th...quite cold the 3rd thru the end on the 7th 22nd/00z....none until December 1st. 22nd/12z....none until December 1st, about a foot of snow on 12/6. 23rd/00z.....none until December 2nd, about a foot of snow on 12/6. 23rd/12z....none until December 1st, now a lakes cutter 24th/00z....none til December 7th, advisory snow 12/7 24th/12z....none until December 5th Verified as about a 532 thickness at 1 am on the 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 I didn't think it was going to turn out this bad. If anything it will give us an initial benchmark (it has to be within x amount of hours to be given credence) of when the gfs caught up with the pattern (when a change was expected). Off topic: As for golf, my wife and I had a great round (for us) at Pinelands, we both shot in the upper 80s and had about 13 pars between us, yesterday at Ramblewood we were back in the low 90s . My wife had a unique scoring chance until the last hole to shoot only multiples of 4 on the back nine (parring all of the par 4s), she had six 4s and two 8s going to the last hole which she bogeyed for a 5. There might be an opportunity to swing before the rain comes in this week? Might see the temps spike up enough front side of the pending inclement weather? If the rain can hold off Tuesday there is a fine window for a round before mid afternoon Might even see 60F? Back to the thread topic: Read your post and thought of Bob Uecker......."Juuuust a bit outside..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 27, 2010 Author Share Posted November 27, 2010 Just a quick eyeballing of the 240hr fcst time period, it does look as though both model ensemble means are much closer than the op model runs. MY WAG is that the op euro will capitulate, but the gfs is overdoing the depth and duration. I kind of use this as the decider: This looks like its going to verify pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 27, 2010 Author Share Posted November 27, 2010 There might be an opportunity to swing before the rain comes in this week? Might see the temps spike up enough front side of the pending inclement weather? If the rain can hold off Tuesday there is a fine window for a round before mid afternoon Might even see 60F? Back to the thread topic: Read your post and thought of Bob Uecker......."Juuuust a bit outside..." We're going to Renault on Monday, back to work on Tuesday. In case it doesn't snow/get sub520dm just bought a six pack of hand warmers for the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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