Quincy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 temps across the mid-Atlantic region are, on average 1-2F cooler at 06z, than the 6hr 00z NAM forecast. not a big difference, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 ice storm in the making for us Yeah we could see a really scary ice storm...the upper levels appear to be warming fast but the surface is holding onto cold air well, as I suspected it would with NE winds. Are we really going to rise more than 10F under moderate precipitation? This could become a very dangerous situation here in Southern Westchester. I'm sitting at 21.7F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The sleet line is advancing at a scary pace, I'm starting to get worried here. Moderate Snow 21.7/19 Coating down.. PSU-tested method (lol), when the flakes either become very rimed or massive aggregates develop, the sleet line is right on your doorstep. The very rimed flakes fell here tonight just before the sleet hit. The flake size was never very impressive here tonight other than just after the snow developed. Immediately thereafter the rimed flakes came in which warned me that warm air was rapidly strengthening aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 a lot of that is because of bright banding with sleet and other non-snow precip that reveals heavier radar returns Rutgers still holding at 24 with a NE/ENE wind. Still a while to go until we get above freezing, and the NAM/GFS seemed to suggest we go >32 at 12z (7 AM), I think a lot of areas are in store for a longer period of freezing rain and I wouldn't be surprised to see Winter Storm/Ice Storm warnings extend back to Somserset/Hunterdon/Berks/Bucks counties for the morning update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yeah we could see a really scary ice storm...the upper levels appear to be warming fast but the surface is holding onto cold air well, as I suspected it would with NE winds. Are we really going to rise more than 10F under moderate precipitation? This could become a very dangerous situation here in Southern Westchester. I'm sitting at 21.7F now. 21F here highest I see us getting to is 30 IMO, but time will tell. EDIT:nvm 23.4F here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 PING PING....sleeting now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 KJFK 180651Z 05009KT 2SM -SN FEW012 OVC025 M04/M07 A3023 RMK AO2 SLP237 P0005 T10391067 $ Not officially, but I'm suspicious of the 2 mile VIS given the radar. 100% sleet here, and I'm less than 10 miles from JFK. They should certainly be mixing in now at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 temps across the mid-Atlantic region are, on average 1-2F cooler at 06z, than the 6hr 00z NAM forecast. not a big difference, but... actually, upon closer examination, some are lower and some are comparable or slightly higher, so no major difference. they seem to be a little cooler where the milder air is, but not quite as cold where the coldest air is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I got over an inch and a half of snow but now it's all sleet. This is where the danger comes in. Snow is not too dangerous as long as your careful but sleet is more slippery and more icy. I just hope we don't transition into a few hours of freezing rain because the surface temperatures are not rising. I'm at 25 and temps have actually dropped a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I haven't seen one salt truck yet...that is scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 wow. temps down another degree last hour at DXR. now -SNFG 17F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Still Moderate Snow 0.3" so far not one ping YET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I haven't seen one salt truck yet...that is scary. lots of kids in for a surprise tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 latest MOS numbers have highs of 34 and 39. obviously too warm and temps are actually a solid 4-5F cooler than forecast and still dropping, whereas MOS had them rising at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 lots of kids in for a surprise tomorrow morning I'd laugh if this storm closed NYC schools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Had HUGE flakes when I came home around 1 but now we are back to tiny flakes and Mod. snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Holding on to legit moderate to heavy snow right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Hammer Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 T - up to 27 with Td at 25... Still falling as light snow here. About 1/2 inch best guess. (East Setauket, Long Island) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 still mostly snow with some sleet starting to mix in.....3/4".....26F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 latest RUC numbers: 12z: NYC 32F, HPN 28F, DXR 22F 15z: NYC 35F, HPN 32F, DXR 25F 18z: NYC 36F, HPN 36F, DXR 32F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 latest RUC numbers: 12z: NYC 32F, HPN 28F, DXR 22F 15z: NYC 35F, HPN 32F, DXR 25F 18z: NYC 36F, HPN 36F, DXR 32F Quincy, where do you get those? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Can't really tell but looks like > 0.5" here. More than a solid coating and still snowing. Sleet can't be too far, though. Will say this - that is one impressive/unbroken batch of precip to our south! This storm is tapping some serious juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyDop Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Quincy, where do you get those? Thanks Are those surface 2m temps or at 850? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 just squinting at the E-Wall maps. those temps are 2m temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The snow didn't hang on as long as was expected. Sleet here now. Got 1.2 inches before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 if we're seeing less snow than anticipated, this could be even worse. imagine if 1.00" LE falls, after only 0.15" was frozen... gonna be a fun morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Ping...ping..looks like about an inch and a half, gonna run out now to get an official measurement. But the pings of death have officially begun for the first time in a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Snow starting to pick up in intensity. Kinda worried about the rapid advancement the sleet line is making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Hearing sleet mixing in now... that bright banding looks like it is the line of snow/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Snow starting to pick up in intensity. Kinda worried about the rapid advancement the sleet line is making. I'll say this...I was surprised that I am pinging this fast. I'm pretty far west in my county and usually don't flip for a while. But this is a different type of event..the WAA is working through the mid levels on a very strong sly flow. It's going going to slow down for much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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