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NYC Jan 17-19 Snow/Ice/Rain Storm Obs


am19psu

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It will be interesting to see if the sleet line starts encountering some resistance as it approaches NYC and surrounding 'burbs....or if it just keeps rocketing northward at a fast clip. The 00z NAM did the latter....but the ECMWF and the GFS have the sleet/snow line slowing down so that its still snowing in the lower Hudson Valley N of NYC and extreme NNJ/NW NJ (like FWN) at 12z.

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It will be interesting to see if the sleet line starts encountering some resistance as it approaches NYC and surrounding 'burbs....or if it just keeps rocketing northward at a fast clip. The 00z NAM did the latter....but the ECMWF and the GFS have the sleet/snow line slowing down so that its still snowing in the lower Hudson Valley N of NYC and extreme NNJ/NW NJ (like FWN) at 12z.

that nose of very cold air down the Hudson Valley and Connecticut may help slow it down, but we'll see.

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It will be interesting to see if the sleet line starts encountering some resistance as it approaches NYC and surrounding 'burbs....or if it just keeps rocketing northward at a fast clip. The 00z NAM did the latter....but the ECMWF and the GFS have the sleet/snow line slowing down so that its still snowing in the lower Hudson Valley N of NYC and extreme NNJ/NW NJ (like FWN) at 12z.

I'm sure you will be scanning the 7 am obs with bated breath...

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It will be interesting to see if the sleet line starts encountering some resistance as it approaches NYC and surrounding 'burbs....or if it just keeps rocketing northward at a fast clip. The 00z NAM did the latter....but the ECMWF and the GFS have the sleet/snow line slowing down so that its still snowing in the lower Hudson Valley N of NYC and extreme NNJ/NW NJ (like FWN) at 12z.

It certainly is racing north right now

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I'm sure you will be scanning the 7 am obs with bated breath...

I will be...it definitely has a big difference up here as to which model is correct...if the NAM is more correct, then it could be a pretty bad ice storm, if the GFS is correct, then its a lot more snow (>6") before any flip.

It looks like the colder models race the sleet line to near NYC or just north of it and then almost hold it steady for 3 hours or so. So it will be interesting to see. The 00z NAM had the sleet all the way up past POU and to the MA/CT border by 12z. Massive difference.

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I don't totally trust the Belmar obs - their temp/dew has been stuck for the past 3 hours. Surrounding sites are about 2F warmer:

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=40.18666840&lon=-74.12472534&zoom=10&pin=Allaire%2c%20NJ

METAR KBLM 180615Z AUTO 06010KT BKN005 OVC012 M02/M08 A3021 RMK AO1

P0001

METAR KBLM 180535Z AUTO 07011KT SCT006 BKN013 OVC027 M02/M08 A3023 RMK

AO1

METAR KBLM 180455Z AUTO 07009KT BKN007 BKN014 OVC019 M02/M08 A3025 RMK

AO1 P0001

METAR KBLM 180435Z AUTO 07009KT SCT007 BKN014 OVC021 M02/M08 A3027 RMK

AO1

METAR KBLM 180355Z AUTO 07009KT SCT007 OVC021 M02/M08 A3028 RMK AO1

The fact Belmar is still 28 to me means somebody, including possibly even NYC metro is in big trouble in this event as far as FZRA goes.

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KJFK 180651Z 05009KT 2SM -SN FEW012 OVC025 M04/M07 A3023 RMK AO2 SLP237 P0005 T10391067 $

Not officially, but I'm suspicious of the 2 mile VIS given the radar.

dont be suspicious...the radar is incorrect. its light snow with fairly good vis.

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