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PHL Jan 17-19 Snow/Ice/Rain Storm Obs


am19psu

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0029

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1129 PM CST MON JAN 17 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY...SERN PA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 180529Z - 181130Z

PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z ACROSS SERN

PA AND THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING THE PHILADELPHIA

METRO AREA. P-TYPE WILL TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FZRA BY EARLY

MORNING...WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION RATES OF 0.05-0.10 IN/HR.

A SWATH OF WINTRY-MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER DELMARVA WILL CONTINUE

EXPANDING NWD INTO THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY AND SERN PA. 05Z

SFC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SFC FREEZING LINE IS POSITIONED

FROM 15 NE ACY TO 30 SSW DOV...WITH LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW ALREADY

BEING OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF NJ AND SERN PA. AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION

TO FZRA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY 06Z AS LOW-LEVEL WAA STRENGTHENS

ATOP SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH

40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL YIELD INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES

OVER THE AREA. WITH TIME...THE SFC FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED TO

SHIFT SLIGHTLY NWD...WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN FORECAST TO OCCUR

OVER NJ...NRN DEL...AND PORTIONS OF SERN PA BY 12Z.

..ROGERS.. 01/18/2011

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0029

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1129 PM CST MON JAN 17 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY...SERN PA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 180529Z - 181130Z

PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z ACROSS SERN

PA AND THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING THE PHILADELPHIA

METRO AREA. P-TYPE WILL TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FZRA BY EARLY

MORNING...WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION RATES OF 0.05-0.10 IN/HR.

A SWATH OF WINTRY-MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER DELMARVA WILL CONTINUE

EXPANDING NWD INTO THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY AND SERN PA. 05Z

SFC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SFC FREEZING LINE IS POSITIONED

FROM 15 NE ACY TO 30 SSW DOV...WITH LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW ALREADY

BEING OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF NJ AND SERN PA. AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION

TO FZRA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY 06Z AS LOW-LEVEL WAA STRENGTHENS

ATOP SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH

40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL YIELD INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES

OVER THE AREA. WITH TIME...THE SFC FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED TO

SHIFT SLIGHTLY NWD...WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN FORECAST TO OCCUR

OVER NJ...NRN DEL...AND PORTIONS OF SERN PA BY 12Z.

..ROGERS.. 01/18/2011

fantastic im in the bulls eye

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