mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 18z RUC has 0.207 ice at KBWI through 06z tomorrow. KDCA its 0.261 ice http://coolwx.com/cg...rent&field=prec ughhh time to raise the windshield wipers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 RUC getting in on it (below). HRRR is freezing rain 95 and west for the duration of the precip through at least 11z. No idea on the track record of these models with this type of situation. Was just going to post about the HRRR - certainly looks icy on that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm getting bullish on ISW potential Baltimore west with this, and they'll have to issue it for me because so bal will get it good on W side. I have a quick question - when the NWS shifted their warnings away from precip specific type warnings did that include the ISW? For example, is ISW now covered under WSW headers? Just a question! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 DP hasn't budged all day.. 15 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I have a quick question - when the NWS shifted their warnings away from precip specific type warnings did that include the ISW? For example, is ISW now covered under WSW headers? Just a question! ISW's still exist I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm getting bullish on ISW potential Baltimore west with this, and they'll have to issue it for me because so bal will get it good on W side. 18Z model hug?...I doubt they will do that, but we'll see what happens, we're about 5 hours from precip entering the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 I have a quick question - when the NWS shifted their warnings away from precip specific type warnings did that include the ISW? For example, is ISW now covered under WSW headers? Just a question! if it's predominantly ice i think it's still an ice storm warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 18Z model hug?...I doubt they will do that, but we'll see what happens, we're about 5 hours from precip entering the area. GFS/NAM/RUC/HRRR all show I-95 west getting close to warning ice criteria... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I have a quick question - when the NWS shifted their warnings away from precip specific type warnings did that include the ISW? For example, is ISW now covered under WSW headers? Just a question! I thought ISW came under Winter Storm Warnings now. Not sure though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 if it's predominantly ice i think it's still an ice storm warning Thanks to you and Yoda for the quick answer. I vaguely remember reading that somewhere. I think the only thing that doesn't exist is Heavy Snow warning and snow advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS/NAM/RUC/HRRR all show I-95 west getting close to warning ice criteria... you're going to want to see temps drop a little soon.. dca might already be shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS/NAM/RUC/HRRR all show I-95 west getting close to warning ice criteria... They will wait for 00z. [stormtracker] 00z is HUGE! [stormtracker/] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 you're going to want to see temps drop a little soon.. dca might already be shot. Ian L. - Crushing weenie hopes reliably for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 you're going to want to see temps drop a little soon.. dca might already be shot. We'll see Still going with that .1" ice or are you hedging a bit higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 They will wait for 00z. [stormtracker] 00z is HUGE! [stormtracker/] They do a 6pm update of the zones... but yeah probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS/NAM/RUC/HRRR all show I-95 west getting close to warning ice criteria... hence I said 18z model hug...Anyway, in my opinion we're past looking at models a heck of a lot...lets see what happens now..maybe they will be right...probably not in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 ughhh time to raise the windshield wipers You're a lawyer put the Merc in your 4 car garage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Leesburg... any word on the 18z GFS soudings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 We'll see Still going with that .1" ice or are you hedging a bit higher? i definitely doubt ice storm warnings but who knows. temps are marginal.. dews are rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 you're going to want to see temps drop a little soon.. dca might already be shot. Gonna have to wait for precip onset for temp drop. There is no CAA to be found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 For all of you, it is still Ice Storm Warning for >.25'' ice without other supplemental p-types. So either way, depending on if the snow is enough ISW's or WSW's are possible, thanks yoda for that support btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 30.6/15. I'd like our temp to get into the u/20s before the precip comes in. With the dp at 15 we should cool down a bit when light precip starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 RUC does pretty well with the precip placement/QPF...but if I remember correctly, in my past experiences its pretty crappy with precip type and temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 FYI: Ice Storm WarningThis product is issued by the National Weather Service when freezing rain produces a significant and possibly damaging accumulation of ice. The criteria for this warning varies from state to state, but typically will be issued any time more than 1/4" of ice is expected to accumulate in an area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Gonna have to wait for precip onset for temp drop. There is no CAA to be found. i know but east winds are bringing in higher moisture.. we're not going to wetbulb 12 degree dews. i hope you guys get 1" of ice west of the beltway.. i really do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 i know but east winds are bringing in higher moisture.. we're not going to wetbulb 12 degree dews. i hope you guys get 1" of ice west of the beltway.. i really do. good, then east can even have .5'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 i know but east winds are bringing in higher moisture.. we're not going to wetbulb 12 degree dews. i hope you guys get 1" of ice west of the beltway.. i really do. I don't because either way I have to be in dc tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 http://coolwx.com/cg...rent&field=prec 0.317 ice at KBWI per 18z NAM IAD probably loses power out there if this is right -- .50 of ice per 18z NAM (I know it says .570... look at the very last part of the image and a FZRN bar is there) http://coolwx.com/cg...rent&field=prec Are you serious? I don't think we get anywhere near 1/2 inch of ice. Temps are below freezing, but not enough for that much accumulation of ice. Leesburg is right about ice out this way. It ain't happening with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Incoming! http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I find it odd that some of you are 'hoping' for ice...Snow yea of course, but ice does me no good, I know its weather and we're all weather freaks here but give me snow or rain, I can do without the ice, all it does is cause problems, and you cant have much fun with it.....just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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