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Jan 17-19 Mid-Atlantic obs/disco


Ian

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Dewpoints are around 13F at DCA. Temps are going to drop off big time with precipitation.

should help a bit till the heavier action moves in tho it may just virga us out for a while.

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dews are also considerably higher east of the bay.. if we keep an east wind that air is going to move toward us. i doubt the temp at dca drops much more than it is now.. we may settle down toward 30 for a time.

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18z NAM is an icy mess.

KBWI at hr 12 has 2m temp of 30. QPF fallen is 0.17, and its likely ice with the warm layer above the surface. Hr 18 2m temp is 33.1 with another .24 QPF fallen. Probably switch over to rain around hr 16... which means probably 0.25-0.30 QPF is frozen before the switchover to rain

http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KBWi.txt

KIAD is below freezing the entire event... QPF is 0.23

http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KIAD.txt

KEZF skates by with 2m temp at hr 18 of 31.9. QPF is 0.27

http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KEZF.txt

KDCA has a 2m temp at hr 12 of 30.2. 0.18 QPF has fallen by that time. At hr 18, 2m temp is 32.4 with another 0.19 of QPF fallen. Hr 17 is probably the changeover to rain... so .30 of frozen QPF

http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KDCA.txt

I hope this is all correct from what I have read. If I am wrong anywhere, please tell me :)

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18z NAM is an icy mess.

KBWI at hr 12 has 2m temp of 30. QPF fallen is 0.17, and its likely ice with the warm layer above the surface. Hr 18 2m temp is 33.1 with another .24 QPF fallen. Probably switch over to rain around hr 16... which means probably 0.25-0.30 QPF is frozen before the switchover to rain

http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KBWi.txt

KIAD is below freezing the entire event... QPF is 0.23

http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KIAD.txt

KEZF skates by with 2m temp at hr 18 of 31.9. QPF is 0.27

http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KEZF.txt

KDCA

http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KDCA.txt

So 21 hours from 18z... 5am changeover?

nevermind - you said 16hr, not 21hr.

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WWA for LYH and surrounding areas:

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... FOLLOWED BY LIGHT ICING... WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY.

* ACCUMULATION... AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW... EXCEPT UP TO 2 INCHES RIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. ICING WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TIMING... SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE BEGINNING BETWEEN 600 AND 800 PM... TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 200 AM.

I will be personally shocked if we see an inch of snow down here.

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