Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Dewpoints are around 13F at DCA. Temps are going to drop off big time with precipitation. should help a bit till the heavier action moves in tho it may just virga us out for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 dews are also considerably higher east of the bay.. if we keep an east wind that air is going to move toward us. i doubt the temp at dca drops much more than it is now.. we may settle down toward 30 for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 18z NAM is an icy mess. KBWI at hr 12 has 2m temp of 30. QPF fallen is 0.17, and its likely ice with the warm layer above the surface. Hr 18 2m temp is 33.1 with another .24 QPF fallen. Probably switch over to rain around hr 16... which means probably 0.25-0.30 QPF is frozen before the switchover to rain http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KBWi.txt KIAD is below freezing the entire event... QPF is 0.23 http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KIAD.txt KEZF skates by with 2m temp at hr 18 of 31.9. QPF is 0.27 http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KEZF.txt KDCA has a 2m temp at hr 12 of 30.2. 0.18 QPF has fallen by that time. At hr 18, 2m temp is 32.4 with another 0.19 of QPF fallen. Hr 17 is probably the changeover to rain... so .30 of frozen QPF http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KDCA.txt I hope this is all correct from what I have read. If I am wrong anywhere, please tell me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like a nice 1-2 inches of backend snow tuesday night from NAM. That should make people forget about the slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like a nice 1-2 inches of backend snow tuesday night from NAM. That should make people forget about the slop. Was looking at that too. Surface temps marginal, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like a nice 1-2 inches of backend snow tuesday night from NAM. That should make people forget about the slop. I doubt it with sfc temps around 36-40, lwx favors a wintry mix. Rain seems possible though, with some mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like a nice 1-2 inches of backend snow tuesday night from NAM. That should make people forget about the slop. Pretty warm at the BL by that time....mid upper 30's for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 18z NAM is an icy mess. KBWI at hr 12 has 2m temp of 30. QPF fallen is 0.17, and its likely ice with the warm layer above the surface. Hr 18 2m temp is 33.1 with another .24 QPF fallen. Probably switch over to rain around hr 16... which means probably 0.25-0.30 QPF is frozen before the switchover to rain http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KBWi.txt KIAD is below freezing the entire event... QPF is 0.23 http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KIAD.txt KEZF skates by with 2m temp at hr 18 of 31.9. QPF is 0.27 http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KEZF.txt KDCA http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KDCA.txt So 21 hours from 18z... 5am changeover? nevermind - you said 16hr, not 21hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 dews are also considerably higher east of the bay.. if we keep an east wind that air is going to move toward us. i doubt the temp at dca drops much more than it is now.. we may settle down toward 30 for a time. Ya can't fight fate. The WAA is gentle but ubiquitous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 So 21 hours from 18z... 5am changeover? nevermind - you said 16hr, not 21hr. Sorry I was editing as I went along on that post. It should be all correct now. 18 hrs would be 12z or 8 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Sorry I was editing as I went along on that post. It should be all correct now. 18 hrs would be 12z or 8 AM You mean 7 A.M.. You are to used to the severe weather season when 12Z is 8AM . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Boy are we desperate for an obs thread....once the high qpf numbers abandoned me back here I lost interest. Good luck on your crust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Boy are we desperate for an obs thread....once the high qpf numbers abandoned me back here I lost interest. Good luck on your crust Enjoy your ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Enjoy your ice If I get ice accretion on the roads I will never post again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 WWA for LYH and surrounding areas: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... FOLLOWED BY LIGHT ICING... WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY. * ACCUMULATION... AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW... EXCEPT UP TO 2 INCHES RIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. ICING WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. * TIMING... SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE BEGINNING BETWEEN 600 AND 800 PM... TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 200 AM. I will be personally shocked if we see an inch of snow down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 BULLS**T. I have high confidence that my kids will be at school on time in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Sorry I was editing as I went along on that post. It should be all correct now. 18 hrs would be 12z or 8 AM So 7am changeover for BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I have high confidence that my kids will be at school on time in the morning. I doubt it. If it was snow yes, most school systems take ice very seriously. Since we haven't had a snow day yet... I would not be surprised for the safety of the students if they were to just cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 So 7am changeover for BWI? 16 hrs from 18Z today which is 1pm would indicate a 5 AM change there if the NAM is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I doubt it. If it was snow yes, most school systems take ice very seriously. Since we haven't had a snow day yet... I would not be surprised for the safety of the students if they were to just cancel. Exactly what I told a friend Yoda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I have high confidence that my kids will be at school on time in the morning. Even with .1 of ice a school would never start on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Even with .1 of ice a school would never start on time. Yep and this is more than .1'' with a bit of snow underneath. School is doubtful for C MD West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Even with .1 of ice a school would never start on time. Especially since these are the same schools that let kids out early last week even though all the weather forecasts didn't have snow starting till 5pm-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Don't forget the ice chances increased on the experimental maps for the 0.25" ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 16 hrs from 18Z today which is 1pm would indicate a 5 AM change there if the NAM is correct. He quoted me saying 18hrs. Please let Yoda answer the question I asked him. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Don't forget the ice chances increased on the experimental maps for the 0.25" ice By quite a bit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 He quoted me saying 18hrs. Please let Yoda answer the question I asked him. Thanks. Yes... around 7 AM should be the switchover if the the 18z NAM was correct verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wishful thinking on the schools from the students on this forum - The schools that will close are the normal ones like Fauquier etc...the normal suspects. The others will probably delay out of caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 can it snow if 850 temps are .07 but all other levels are cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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