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Jan 17-19 Mid-Atlantic obs/disco


Ian

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00z NAM soundings

IAD 0.25" precip through 12z. 2m temp is 29.3 at 12z. Warms to 38 by 18z... but precip is drizzle (0.01 QPF) after 12z

JYO 0.20" precip through 12z. 2m temp is 28.5 at 12z. Warms to 37.7 by 18z... precip over after 12z

BWI 0.52 precip through 12z. 2m temp is 32.4 at 12z. Warms to 35.5 by 18z with 0.12 precip after 12z in the form of rain. Not exactly sure when the changeover is... but just after 10z would make sense.

EZF 0.28 precip through 12z. 2m temp is 30.8 at 12z. Warms to 40.9 at 18z with 0.02 precip after 12z (likely drizzle)

DCA 0.43 precip through 12z. 2m temp is 31.6 at 12z. Warms to 37.2 at 18z with 0.07 precip after 12z (likely light rain).

Thank you Yoda for always posting sounding information!

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00z NAM soundings

IAD 0.25" precip through 12z. 2m temp is 29.3 at 12z. Warms to 38 by 18z... but precip is drizzle (0.01 QPF) after 12z

JYO 0.20" precip through 12z. 2m temp is 28.5 at 12z. Warms to 37.7 by 18z... precip over after 12z

BWI 0.52 precip through 12z. 2m temp is 32.4 at 12z. Warms to 35.5 by 18z with 0.12 precip after 12z in the form of rain. Not exactly sure when the changeover is... but just after 10z would make sense.

EZF 0.28 precip through 12z. 2m temp is 30.8 at 12z. Warms to 40.9 at 18z with 0.02 precip after 12z (likely drizzle)

DCA 0.43 precip through 12z. 2m temp is 31.6 at 12z. Warms to 37.2 at 18z with 0.07 precip after 12z (likely light rain).

I really hope DCA can stay below freezing for that long....that would be a lot of ice.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE

SOUTH THIS EVE AS LOPRES QUICKLY ORGANIZES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST

COAST. AS EXPECTED...A SOLID SHIELD OF PRECIP HAS QUICKLY FILLED

IN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TOWARD THE

COAST. WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE SFC /SUPPLIED BY

HIPRES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST/ AND WARMER AIR A FEW KFT ABOVE

THE GROUND THAT IS QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM SE TO NW... THE AREA

WILL DEAL WITH A WINTRY MESS THRU THE REST OF TNGT...AND INTO THE

AM COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95.

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOWER SRN MD AND

KING GEORGE COUNTY AS SOME MESONET OBS SHOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S

AND LOW 30S AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. THE FZRA SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL

RAIN IN THESE AREAS BY MIDNIGHT AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

ELSEWHERE...WINTER WX ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THRU THE MID MRNG FOR

AREAS APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF I-66 AND THRU NOON FOR AREAS TO THE

NORTH. WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE

EXPIRATION TIMES INDICATE ACROSS MANY AREAS ONCE FZRA TRANSITIONS TO

RAIN FROM SE TO NW LATE TNGT INTO TUE MRNG.

00Z RAOB SOUNDING AT KIAD SHOWS A THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL

SNOW...AND IS SLIGHT COLDER/DRIER THAN MODELS HAD FCSTD AS PRECIP

HAD YET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT RELEASE. DESPITE THE SLIGHT

DIFFERENCES...FCST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS ENOUGH WARM AIR HAS

ALREADY CHANGED PRECIP OVER TO A WINTRY MIX ALONG I-95 INCLUDING

DC. INTRUSION OF MARINE AIR WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO WARM THE

ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 0C ALL THE WAY UP TO H8 AT KWAL. FIRST FEW HRS OF

PRECIP TO THE N AND W OF I-95 WILL BE SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP

TO AN INCH...BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO FZRA OCCURS. PREDOMINANT

PRECIP TYPE FROM I-95 SOUTH AND EAST WILL BE FZRA THIS EVE BEFORE

THE TRANSITION TO RA OCCURS LATE TNGT/ERY TUE MRNG.

THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS

CLOSER TO THE COAST AND MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS WEST OF THE BLUE

RIDGE. THE HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS /UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH/...

AND WORST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE

HEAVIER PRECIP...WHERE SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU

THE AM RUSH HR COMMUTE. GEOGRAPHICALLY...THIS AREA WILL LIKELY

RESIDE ACROSS THE NW SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE...ESPECIALLY

ACROSS CENTRAL MD AND EXTREME NW VA. FROM I-95 SOUTH AND EAST

/INCLUDING DC AND BALTIMORE/...ICE ACCUMULATIONS UNDER ONE TENTH

OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED THRU THE ERY MRNG.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY

MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO MOST PLACES BY THE AFTERNOON

MAY BE DRY BUT IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH. THE NEXT

WAVE WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM

ABOVE FREEZING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA

TUESDAY...LIKELY REACHING 40 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE

CWA.-- End Changed Discussion --

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Yoda, can you get HGR or MRB ? Curious to see the QPF. Thanks.

HGR -- 0.26 QPF all frozen through 12z with 2m temp of 26.5. By 18z, 2m temp is 35.4. However, QPF is done by 12z

MRB -- 0.17 QPF all frozen through 12z with 2m temp of 26.6. By 18z, 2m temp is 37.5. However, QPF is done by 12z

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THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS

CLOSER TO THE COAST AND MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS WEST OF THE BLUE

RIDGE. THE HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS /UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH/...

AND WORST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE

HEAVIER PRECIP...WHERE SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU

THE AM RUSH HR COMMUTE. GEOGRAPHICALLY...THIS AREA WILL LIKELY

RESIDE ACROSS THE NW SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE...ESPECIALLY

ACROSS CENTRAL MD AND EXTREME NW VA. FROM I-95 SOUTH AND EAST

/INCLUDING DC AND BALTIMORE/...ICE ACCUMULATIONS UNDER ONE TENTH

OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED THRU THE ERY MRNG.

Raising my inner-weenie hopes!

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Back to snow in Northwest DC... I'm thinking the FEDS could have a 2 hour delay tomorrow and Montgomery/Fairfax schools close, just my hunch

The fact that we already had a county salt truck here (usually it's days before we see one) does not bode well for closures.

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The fact that we already had a county salt truck here (usually it's days before we see one) does not bode well for closures.

Yea, but nothing scares school systems like freezing rain. Hell, half the time it's not even officially freezing rain but they cancel school anyways just in case it is somewhere in one of the coldest sections of their districts. And if forecasts indicate some areas could be frz till like 9 a.m. or beyond, a 2-hour delay doesn't do them much. We'll see. But it's not like exactly school systems around here are hesitant to call off classes, especially since there haven't been any snowdays yet.

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still 22 here

just reached 1"

snow is much lighter now and is getting very icy but still snow.

Anyone in that second batch of heavier precip coming from the south still reporting snow?

I do not like the look of the radar, that has more of a rain signature then snow/sleet.

As in freezing rain?

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Back to snow in Northwest DC... I'm thinking the FEDS could have a 2 hour delay tomorrow and Montgomery/Fairfax schools close, just my hunch

There are more politics involved with those calls than most people can possibly imagine. You should have been in on the one where MD tried to force MC to close a school over H1N1. UGLY!!!

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still 22 here

just reached 1"

snow is much lighter now and is getting very icy but still snow.

Anyone in that second batch of heavier precip coming from the south still reporting snow?

I do not like the look of the radar, that has more of a rain signature then snow/sleet.

Its mostly snow in West Bethesda, with actual sleet mixing in... but I'm alot warmer than you (26.8 here)

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