BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 sorry, you may be right, but shut up. one last thought..Why is it you always ride with whatever gives you the most wintry weather though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Although talk about hedging their bets. According to my LWX forecast, we could have all ice or rain till noon, or a combination of both, or nothing, or snow, or drizzle...I'm dizzy from just reading that. Tonight: Freezing rain and sleet before midnight, then freezing rain between midnight and 3am, then rain or freezing rain after 3am. Low around 30. East wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. Total nighttime sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tuesday: Rain or freezing rain before noon, then a chance of rain between noon and 3pm. High near 39. North wind between 8 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected Point and click forecasts are largely automated.. stop with the over-analyzation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I don't see anything that supports areas NW of 95 turning to rain. This could be a pretty major ice storm for the area. http://snowball.millersville.edu/~cws/SpecialWeatherDiscussion.html Someone else agrees with you too. 7:00pm Monday update: I really think some forecasters are underplaying this event. It's really a classic set up for an icy mess. Temperatures didn't hardly rise today...a sign of the strong cold air damming in place across the region. Also, dew points remain in the singles and teens early this evening, so the air will cool a bit more when precipitation arrives. Still looks like light snow will develop by mid-evening, and become steady before midnight. An inch or two of snow is possible, but the bigger concern is ice build-up on trees, powerlines, and untreated roads...later tonight into midday Tuesday. A 1/4" of ice (perhaps more in spots) is possible by mid-morning Tuesday, as temps only slowly rise towards 32 degrees. The steady precip will likely end around Noon, and so mos--or all--of the event will occur with below freezing temps. Thus, my concern for a pretty significant event the next 18 hours...one that I think deserves a Winter Storm Warning from the NWS (we are only in a lesser "Advisory", though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 n md looks in for a bit of a snowburst.. that leading edge is developing nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 We have a 'slizzard' LOTS of sleet. No snow at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0028 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CST MON JAN 17 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...CNTRL MD...WASHINGTON D.C. CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 180044Z - 180645Z A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND NWD INTO NRN VA/MD AND THE WASHINGTON D.C. METRO AREA THIS EVENING...WITH INITIAL P-TYPES OF SNOW/SLEET EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN. LIQUID PRECIPITATION RATES OF 0.05-0.10 IN/HR WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING. WEAK ASCENT OCCURRING WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME /PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE 900-800 MB LAYER/ WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANSION OF A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER SERN VA. SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LARGE T-TD SPREADS VARYING BETWEEN 10-20 DEG F ACROSS MUCH OF NRN VA AND CNTRL MD...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER-MID 30S. 00Z IAD RAOB INDICATES THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING /SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW/...AND IS SLIGHTLY COLDER IN THE 900-850 MB LAYER THAN NEARLY ALL MODEL POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS COINCIDENT WITH STRENGTHENING WARM NOSE NEAR 850 MB...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN WITH TIME...WITH NEAR-SFC COLD LAYER REINFORCED BY WET-BULB COOLING. CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO IS AN INITIAL P-TYPE OF SNOW /OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH SLEET/ TRANSITIONING TO PREDOMINANTLY FREEZING RAIN. ..ROGERS.. 01/18/2011 ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0028.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 one last thought..Why is it you always ride with whatever gives you the most wintry weather though? That's a sad last thought---good bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 100% sleet. 30.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Finally flurries in Bel Air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhatStorm Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Light freezing rain w/sleet in Warrenton. 30 degees. Dew point 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Very light flurries, sleet now. Temps dropped to 28 DP 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Moderate snow here in western Howard County. Deck is covered. Cars safely in the garage--sorry Mitchnick. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 hopefully we get some more snow in the heavier moving in.. spc seems to indicate that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I would think that with a temp of 24.6 it would be several hours before the temps made it to 32 here in Towson. That also looks like a nice little slug of pecip developing and moving in from the south. Should be a nice little glaze come morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 nice to see you back and posting again. Just to clarify, do you mean just NW... or a good distance? Chuck is bad in the short range. Warm rain incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 one last thought..Why is it you always ride with whatever gives you the most wintry weather though? Excuse me, thats why people are sayins 1-2'' for hr 42 and i said um no not gonna happen. Im pretty sure I am just saying we will get more than a coating of snow or at least .1'' zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Chuck is bad in the short range. Warm rain incoming! SPC MD seems to disagree... but we'll see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 n md looks in for a bit of a snowburst.. that leading edge is developing nicely DC sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Little something going on now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 2nd snowy night in 6 days this winter rocks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Ian saw that SPC MD and was like meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LisaMac_SSMD Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Light sleet/snow or "grauple" if you will. 28 degrees, DP 22, Wind E@8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Little something going on now yep definitely snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickymdwx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 light snow in edgewood temp 26 dp 15 wind ne 5 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Almost all freezing rain here...a little sleet mixing in just north of annapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Mod to heavy snow in Frederick....coating on all surfaces...temp 27.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Ian saw that SPC MD and was like meh na. it's hard to say who ends up 33 and who ends up 32. marginal temps either way.. no 'big' icestorm. hopefully it snows a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Already posted that last page ddweatherman Thanks for posting the image AppalachianWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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